NEW HOPE, Pa. (AP) — Mark Houck makes a potent enchantment to conservative Republicans on this nook of japanese Pennsylvania when he describes his arrest and subsequent acquittal on federal prices that he pushed a Deliberate Parenthood volunteer outdoors a Philadelphia abortion clinic.
The account has turn into a staple of Houck’s first-time bid for the U.S. Home in suburban Philadelphia, a central battleground of the 2024 election, from the presidency on down.
“I’m telling you this as a result of that is how I turned a goal of the federal authorities — the weaponization of the federal government,” he mentioned at a gathering final week of the New Hope Solebury Republican Membership.
Houck’s marketing campaign to unseat fourth-term Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in Tuesday’s major might provide hints about swing-district Republican sentiment in probably the most risky White Home races in years.
With few actually aggressive Home seats in play, the first Congressional District that Fitzpatrick represents is one in every of 16 districts nationwide that Democrat Joe Biden carried within the 2020 presidential election the place voters additionally despatched Republicans to Washington. By comparability, 5 seats received that yr by Donald Trump, then the incumbent and now his social gathering’s presumptive 2024 nominee, are actually held occupied by a Democrat.
The Republicans’ Home majority is so slim that Democrats have to flip simply 4 seats in November to retake management. That makes the “Biden 16” a major group of aggressive seats and so they might go a good distance in figuring out whether or not the subsequent president has a pleasant or hostile Home subsequent yr.
Fifteen of these seats are in states that Biden received in 2020. The exception is Nebraska’s 2nd District, represented by GOP Rep. Don Bacon. There are 5 seats in California, 4 in New York, two in Arizona and one apiece in New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
A number of of the “Biden 16” are like Fitzgerald, successful yr after yr by tightrope-walking between challengers in primaries and normal elections. 9 of them received a primary time period in in 2022, when Republicans took management of the Home for the primary time in 4 years.
Within the fall, many will face the identical Democrat they beat final time, generally narrowly.
The Fitzpatrick-Houck winner will face Democrat Ashley Ehasz, a former Military helicopter pilot who’s uncontested in her major. Fitzpatrick, a former FBI supervisory agent who beat Ehasz by 10 share factors in 2022, is outraising Houck and Ehasz by thousands and thousands of {dollars}, mixed.
Earlier than November, a number of others among the many “Biden 16” should beat again major challenges from the conservative wing of the GOP.
In Nebraska, Bacon is going through maybe his strongest major check but. If he wins, he’ll tackle the identical Democratic opponent, state Sen. Tony Vargas, whom he defeated two years in the past by fewer than 3 share factors.
Bacon has been a vocal supporter of sending extra navy help to Ukraine, one thing opposed by his major opponent, second-time congressional candidate Dan Frei.
Frei, who contends the GOP base is fed up with Bacon, accuses the incumbent of flouting marketing campaign guarantees by voting to extend spending and for payments that do nothing to stem the stream of immigrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally.
Almost the entire 16 races are thought of toss-ups.
Republicans intend to hammer residence a message about lax border safety and excessive inflation underneath Biden. Democrats are warning that Republicans will pursue a nationwide abortion ban as Democrats invoke a problem that has constantly labored of their favor on the poll field for the reason that U.S. Supreme Court docket overturned the constitutional proper to an abortion in 2022.
North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson, chair of the Home Republicans’ marketing campaign arm, mentioned the “Biden 16” have shaped sturdy identities of their districts and are emphasizing native points.
Hudson mentioned Biden’s unpopularity and presidential turnout fashions are more and more giving an edge to Republicans, with the GOP attracting extra working-class voters who extra prone to vote in presidential elections and assist flip these districts to Trump.
“The presidential turnout dynamics truly favor Republicans,” Hudson mentioned in an interview. “After which in case you look, state by state, the place our battlegrounds are, the presidential turnout goes to assist us.”
Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene, who leads the Home Democrats’ marketing campaign arm, mentioned Democrats will spotlight what they are saying is the chaos on the highest ranges of presidency when Republicans are cost of the Home and Trump is within the White Home. They’ll say Trump is a menace to democracy and Republicans are extremists and hypocrites who voted in opposition to main spending payments underneath Biden after which tried to take credit score for the tasks that landed of their districts.
Voters “need of us who’re there to control,” DelBene mentioned in an interview. “They’re not on the lookout for extremism. And so all we now have to do is guarantee that voters are conscious of what they’re doing. … Holding them accountable for his or her precise votes, though their rhetoric generally tries to be extra reasonable.”
In Pennsylvania, Houck’s bid to unseat Fitzpatrick, who’s backed by some labor unions and enterprise teams, has a visceral really feel that some Republicans say resonates with them.
On the Solebury Republicans’ assembly on the grounds of a luxurious resort and marriage ceremony venue, Houck unwound the story of his arrest, describing federal brokers with weapons drawn as they descended on his Bucks County residence in 2022.
They arrested him, in reference to the incident outdoors a Deliberate Parenthood clinic in Philadelphia. Houck defended his actions, saying he acted to guard his 12-year-old son from abusive feedback made by the clinic volunteer. The trial led to an acquittal in 2023, and Houck, who runs a Catholic ministry group, mentioned he started fielding requests to run for workplace.
Houck’s story struck a chord with Rose Cipriano, who got here to listen to him communicate. Her husband picked up a Houck yard signal and Cipriano, who had beforehand supported Fitzpatrick, mentioned Houck has modified her thoughts within the approaching major.
“I’m on the lookout for recent concepts, and I’m keen to take an opportunity and vote for him on Tuesday,” Cipriano mentioned “I’ve identified his story because it occurred, and I assist him.”
Houck’s marketing campaign echoes Trump’s personal protection in opposition to the legal circumstances in opposition to him. It facilities on the slogan “Religion Household Freedom” whereas Houck talks about defunding the U.S. Environmental Safety Company and the federal departments of Agriculture, Schooling and Justice, calling all of them unconstitutional.
Houck has raised extra marketing campaign money than any earlier Fitzpatrick major challenger. However he’s nicely behind Fitzpatrick’s fundraising and identify recognition in a county the place his brother beforehand held the congressional seat.
Fitzpatrick has the assist of the county social gathering and the backing of police and fireplace unions, whose giant marketing campaign indicators endorsing him crop up each two years.
Bob Brooks, president of the Pennsylvania Skilled Firefighters Affiliation, mentioned Fitzpatrick represents blue-collar employees like his union members.
“And, if there was extra blue-collar legislators, I believe they might discover extra assist from firefighters,” Brooks mentioned in an interview. “We assist those that assist us, and Brian has supported us on many ranges.”
Republicans on the Solebury assembly inspired Houck to remain concerned in social gathering politics.
Houck mentioned he’ll again Fitzpatrick within the normal election if Fitzpatrick wins the first however received’t marketing campaign for him, postpone by what he mentioned was Fitzpatrick failure to verify on Houck’s household after his arrest. Fitzpatrick didn’t reply to interview requests.
Cipriano mentioned she is upset in Fitzpatrick however mentioned the stakes are too excessive for the social gathering to be divided in November. She pledged to assist Fitzpatrick ought to he win the first.
“I’m behind the Republican Get together 100%,” she mentioned. “So whoever’s operating, from the highest down, will get my assist.”
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Comply with Marc Levy at @timelywriter and Mike Catalini at @mikecatalini
