NEAL CONAN, HOST:
That is TALK OF THE NATION. I am Neal Conan, in Washington. It is Markey in Massachusetts, the courtroom nixes DOMA and Prop 8, and the president bows to the summer season warmth and discards his jacket to tackle local weather change. It is Wednesday, and time for a…
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: It isn’t that horny.
CONAN: Version of the Political Junkie.
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PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN: There you go once more.
VICE PRESIDENT WALTER MONDALE: After I hear your new concepts, I am reminded of that advert: The place’s the meat?
SENATOR BARRY GOLDWATER: Extremism within the protection of liberty isn’t any vice.
SENATOR LLOYD BENTSEN: Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy.
PRESIDENT RICHARD NIXON: You do not have Nixon to kick round anymore.
SARAH PALIN: Lipstick.
GOVERNOR RICK PERRY: Oops.
PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH: However I am the decider.
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CONAN: And for yet another Wednesday, Political Junkie Ken Rudin joins us to recap the week in politics. The Supreme Courtroom strikes down the Voting Rights Act yesterday, DOMA as we speak and clears the way in which for homosexual marriage in California. In Austin, Democrats run out the clock on the Texas abortion regulation. Weiner edges forward in polls on New York’s mayoral race. The immigration invoice appears to be like set to go the Senate this week – the Home, who is aware of?
Later, we glance forward on politics with Political Junkie regulars Anna Greenberg and Vin Weber. However first, the person himself: Political Junkie Ken Rudin joins us right here in Studio 42. And as common, we start with a trivia query.
KEN RUDIN, BYLINE: That is the ultimate present?
CONAN: It is the final one.
RUDIN: Wow.
CONAN: Yeah.
RUDIN: What are they considering? OK, anyway, yesterday, Congressman Ed Markey, who’s been within the Home for greater than 36 years, was elected to the Senate in Massachusetts to exceed – to succeed the very well-known Mo Cowan – after all, one of many Three Stooges.
CONAN: It could possibly be Much less Cowan now.
RUDIN: Much less TALK OF THE NATION. The momentary – Mo Cowen, after all, was a short lived substitute for John Kerry. Nobody ever elected to the Senate has served longer within the Home than Markey. The query is: Which member of the present Senate served the longest within the Home earlier than coming to the Senate?
CONAN: Should you assume you realize the reply to this week’s trivia query, the present senator who served the longest within the Home of Representatives earlier than going to the opposite facet of the Capitol, give us a name: 800-989-8255. Electronic mail: speak@npr.org. Actually, your final alternative to win a free Political Junkie T-shirt. It higher be small or medium or – and a kind of fabulous no-prize buttons. So, Ken, after we can, we begin with precise votes. And the votes getting all the thrill this week are five-four, five-four and five-four.
RUDIN: Proper, five-four, 54-40 or battle, precisely. These are Supreme Courtroom selections. As we speak, after all, was the five-four resolution that principally eradicated, referred to as unconstitutional the Protection of Marriage Act, the 1996 act that was signed by President Clinton, handed…
CONAN: Overwhelmingly handed.
RUDIN: …overwhelmingly by Congress. After all, within the final couple years, we did see President Obama, Lawyer Common Holder discuss, nicely, I do not assume we’re defending this regulation any longer. However the Supreme Courtroom dominated as we speak that it’s certainly unconstitutional. And this principally will give federal safety and federal rights to same-sex {couples} in these states that acknowledge same-sex marriage.
CONAN: And there is going to be yet another of these states, California, as a result of Proposition 8, the referendum by which the voters in California voted for – to outline marriage as one man, one girl, that was struck down by a – the Ninth Circuit, and as we speak, the Supreme Courtroom mentioned, hey, we’re sending it again to the Ninth Circuit. That opinion holds.
RUDIN: Proper. And, after all, not solely has the federal courts, but in addition the district courts have referred to as Proposition 8 unconstitutional. So California will be part of, I believe, a minimum of I believe three extra states, two or three extra states by August 1st. So a complete or 12 or 13 states…
CONAN: Delaware’s regulation takes impact subsequent week, on July 1st.
RUDIN: OK, and, after all, District of Columbia. So you have got that. And, after all, then you definately…
CONAN: A couple of third of the American inhabitants now, with California.
RUDIN: We do. We really do. We do. And, after all, we’ve got the information in regards to the Voting Rights Act. That is the 1965 act that was handed by Congress in response to what we noticed was occurring to civil rights, individuals making an attempt to get the vote within the South. We noticed canines. We noticed hearth homes aimed toward individuals simply making an attempt to get the suitable to vote.
Anyway, the Supreme Courtroom mentioned that these 9 states, largely within the South, which have had federal safety – federal oversight of their election legal guidelines now not have that oversight. So, in different phrases, these 9 states – largely within the South – can resolve how they wish to implement their very own election legal guidelines. In the event that they wish to have voter IDs…
CONAN: Effectively, they do not should submit their plans prematurely to the Justice Division anymore.
RUDIN: Precisely, precisely. And the Republicans’ argument and the courtroom’s argument is that the nation has modified. The South isn’t any totally different than the remainder of the nation. However Democrats are making the purpose that states are nonetheless passing voter ID legal guidelines. They’re nonetheless redrawing district traces that may harm, that may harm, blacks, the poor. So…
CONAN: And Hispanics, we noticed the Texas redistricting plan thrown out simply final 12 months on the premise that it discriminated in opposition to Hispanics.
RUDIN: Precisely. And with the five-four resolution now in regards to the Voting Rights Act, Texas now can implement that regulation. So either side have totally different views and the way in which they noticed it in another way.
CONAN: And, all proper, precise votes, Massachusetts, low turnout in Massachusetts on what turned out to – what individuals thought was, the truth is, a fairly boring election, and it turned out just about the way in which individuals anticipated.
RUDIN: It was. I imply, there was a number of – nicely, first we’re speaking about Ed Markey, the congressman who was elected, beat Gabriel Gomez, the Republican, by about 10 factors, not a shock. That is typical Massachusetts voting patterns. After all, everyone remembers 2010, when Scott Brown stunned everyone, gained Ted Kennedy’s – the late Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat. And so individuals have been questioning, nicely, whether or not this could possibly be repeated.
CONAN: They usually had a really attractive-seeming candidate, a former Navy SEAL, a Hispanic in Massachusetts, a recent voice operating in opposition to, as we prompt, anyone who’d been in Washington a really very long time.
RUDIN: However – and I believe that the Democrats have been conscious of that. Additionally they have been conscious of complacency. And they also poured in some huge cash, a number of manpower. President Obama, Invoice Clinton, Vice President Biden, the entire shebang went into the state, likened it with – blanketed the airwaves with commercials. And because it turned out, it wasn’t that shut.
CONAN: Within the meantime, there was a rare scene within the Texas legislature in Austin. That is the place Republicans – the governor referred to as a particular part to go a really robust anti-abortion regulation. A Democratic Senator, Wendy Davis, filibustered for hours and hours and hours, as she hoped to speak out the clock till the particular session elapsed final night time at midnight. Then nearly an hour earlier than it was set to lapse, she was voted down on a rule of order, and this was the response of the demonstrators who have been within the gallery there on the state capitol.
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RUDIN: The protestors have been saying let her communicate. Wendy Davis, once more, the Democrat from Fort Value, determined to face as much as this invoice, this Senate Invoice 5, which might ban abortions after 20 weeks of being pregnant, and would additionally resolve the place abortions may happen. And, after all, a number of pro-abortion-rights supporters mentioned this was very restrictive and simply, you realize…
CONAN: Would nearly, would, the truth is, drive the closing down of just about all the abortion clinics within the state of Texas – I believe six.
RUDIN: It completely was. And, after all, now Wendy Davis is now this nationwide hero. All people was watching this on Twitter. Apparently, there have been some 400,000 tweets with the hashtag #standwithwendy. And because it turned out, she did not – wasn’t in a position to speak via – she stopped, the filibuster was stopped, however due to the demonstrators, the vote within the state Senate to go the invoice got here after the 12 o’clock deadline.
CONAN: Three minutes after the deadline.
RUDIN: Precisely. So possibly it is a short-term victory, however Wendy Davis and the pro-choice people bought a possibly simply, you realize, only a symbolic victory, however a victory nonetheless in Texas.
CONAN: They’re anticipated – the governor is anticipated to name one other particular session, and at the moment, it is most likely going to go.
RUDIN: It might go, as nicely. Proper.
CONAN: 800-989-8255 if you happen to assume you realize the reply to this week’s trivia query. And we do have some individuals on the road who assume they know the id of the present United States senator who served longest within the Home of Representatives earlier than shifting to that facet of the Capitol. And let’s have a look at if we are able to start with George, and George on the road with us from Norman, Oklahoma.
GEORGE: Hello, Neal. I’ve a guess, and in addition a request. I gained a puzzle again in – the quiz again in…
CONAN: Ship us an electronic mail. We’ll ship it to the judges and adjudicate that, however give us your guess, as a result of we do not wish to run out of time right here.
GEORGE: I am saying Barbara Boxer, California.
RUDIN: Barbara Boxer shouldn’t be a nasty guess. She was within the Home 10 years earlier than she was elected to the Senate in 1992. However she shouldn’t be the longest-serving.
CONAN: Let’s go now to Eric, and Eric with us from Jackson, Wyoming.
ERIC: Hello. My guess is Charles Schumer.
CONAN: Chuck Schumer from New York.
RUDIN: That is a wonderful guess, however nonetheless not right. Chuck Schumer was elected – was within the Home 18 years earlier than he beat Al D’Amato within the 1998 Senate race. He was there 18 years. Anyone was there even longer.
CONAN: Let’s go to Christopher, Christopher with us from Brooklyn.
CHRISTOPHER: Yeah, I am undoubtedly not proper, however I simply needed to say I will miss you guys so, a lot. It is my favourite present.
RUDIN: That’s the right reply.
CONAN: Ding, ding, ding.
RUDIN: That’s the right reply.
CHRISTOPHER: I mentioned Gillibrand.
CONAN: Kirsten Gillibrand from Upstate New York.
RUDIN: No, no. Gillibrand was solely in – yeah, she was solely within the Home, I believe, two years earlier than she was appointed to interchange Hillary Clinton within the Senate.
CONAN: Let’s examine if we are able to go subsequent to – that is…
RUDIN: I appreciated his first reply lots.
CONAN: …Aaron, Aaron with us from Minneapolis.
AARON: Hello. Is it Bernie Sanders?
CONAN: Bernie Sanders from Vermont.
RUDIN: Bernie Sanders, not a nasty guess, both: 16 years within the Home as an impartial, earlier than he got here to the Senate as an impartial, however not lengthy sufficient.
CONAN: Let’s examine if we are able to go subsequent to – that is Charlie, Charlie with us from San Francisco.
CHARLIE: Yeah. It is Senator Leahy of Vermont.
CONAN: Pat Leahy of Vermont.
RUDIN: Pat Leahy of Vermont, by no means – Pat Leahy by no means served within the Home.
CONAN: Thanks, Charlie. Let’s examine if we are able to go subsequent to – that is Bob, Bob with us from Rochester, Minnesota.
BOB: Sure, that is Bob Sixta(ph) from Rochester, and I, too, am going to overlook you guys. I will should exit and get the T-shirts from another supply. However I believe…
CONAN: Effectively, give us a guess, Bob.
BOB: OK, I believe it is Carl Levin of Michigan.
RUDIN: Carl Levin of Michigan by no means served within the Home.
CONAN: You are considering of his brother, who did serve within the Home.
BOB: His brother, Bernie. OK, thanks.
RUDIN: His brother was unleavened.
(LAUGHTER)
CONAN: Let’s examine if we are able to go subsequent to Sam, Sam with us from Durham in North Carolina.
SAM: Yeah, my guess is Ben Cardin of Maryland.
RUDIN: Ben Cardin is the right reply.
CONAN: Ding, ding, ding.
RUDIN: In 2006, he gained Paul Sarbanes’ Senate seat, beat Michael Steele, however he was within the Home for 20 years, from 1987 to 2006, 20 years, and that is the file, or a minimum of the present file now that – earlier than Ed Markey is available in.
CONAN: Earlier than Ed Markey is available in, and eclipses that treasured mark that I am positive…
RUDIN: Ben Cardin is the right reply.
CONAN: Sam, keep on the road. We’ll accumulate your particulars, and we’ll ship you a free Political Junkie T-shirt, and congratulations…
SAM: Thanks a lot.
CONAN: …and a button suggesting that you simply gained the Political Junkie trivia contest. Within the meantime, Ken, we’ve got to recollect there was a senator from Maine, Senator Hathaway, who died this previous week.
RUDIN: That is William Hathaway, and he isn’t a family identify, however in 1972, he defeated one of many nice legends in Senate historical past: Margaret Chase Smith.
CONAN: He had a terrific quote. He referred to as his mom to say he’d gained, and she or he mentioned you ought to be ashamed of your self.
RUDIN: Effectively, Margaret Chase Smith, when she was defeated in 1972, she was the one girl within the Senate. That is how far again that was. However she stood as much as Joe McCarthy. She was a legend. However she took her ’72 election with no consideration. Hathaway beat her. Six years later, he was crushed by Invoice Cohen. However William Hathaway died this week.
CONAN: All proper, Ken Rudin, stick with us. Once we come again, we will be speaking with, nicely, two of our regulars: Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg and former Republican member of the Home of Representatives Vin Weber in regards to the futures of their events and, nicely, the elections as we stay up for 2013, 2014 and 2016. Stick with us. I am Neal Conan. It is the TALK OF THE NATION, from NPR Information.
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CONAN: That is TALK OF THE NATION. I am Neal Conan. It is Wednesday, the final word Political Junkie day. And Ken, I perceive we’ve got one final ScuttleButton winner.
RUDIN: We do, completely. The three-button set of final week, the buttons mentioned: I do not give a rattling. It was one thing to do with TALK OF THE NATION, I believe. However the different button, second button was keep away from the Noid: name Domino’s Pizza. And the third button mentioned: Likelihood for governor – Simon Likelihood, as you nicely keep in mind, misplaced the Republican major for governor of South Dakota in 1972.
CONAN: Emblazoned on my coronary heart.
RUDIN: Precisely. So if you add all of them collectively, you give – you get give pizza an opportunity.
CONAN: Give pizza an opportunity. OK.
RUDIN: Sure. And the Reverend John Pearson(ph) – who clearly had assist from above – of Bordentown, Pennsylvania is that this week’s winner.
CONAN: Effectively, he’ll get a free Political Junkie T-shirt. I believe solely smalls are left. And, after all, that button that means he’s a – a no-prize button.
RUDIN: We’ll discover him a shirt.
CONAN: Over the previous few weeks, we have taken the chance to examine in with a few of our favourite friends and colleagues in a collection of conversations referred to as Wanting Forward. This week, we’ve got two longtime associates of our Political Junkie section. They’ve helped us analyze, dissect and assess many campaigns and races all through the years.
Becoming a member of us right here in Studio 42, Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, now senior vice chairman of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. Anna, welcome again.
ANNA GREENBERG: Thanks.
CONAN: Vin Weber…
GREENBERG: It is good to be right here, a bit of unhappy.
(LAUGHTER)
CONAN: Vin Weber joins us from Iowa Public Radio in Des Moines, former Republican congressman from Minnesota, now a Republican political strategist and companion at Mercury Public Affairs. Vin, good to have you ever again.
VIN WEBER: Effectively, it is nice to be with you all, though like Anna, I really feel form of blended emotions about it. This has been a terrific program, and it is nice to be with you. It is nice to be with Anna, and I am going to take heed to no matter NPR places on subsequent, I assume.
CONAN: I assume. Are you there in Des Moines, fronting for the Ken Rudin presidential marketing campaign?
WEBER: I am prepared. It is by no means too early to start out.
CONAN: By no means too early to start out. Within the meantime, we’ve got to start with as we speak’s Supreme Courtroom selections. Anna Greenberg, what adjustments now?
GREENBERG: What adjustments now? Effectively, I believe that you simply’re nonetheless going to have a number of fights for marriage equality in several states, as a result of whereas a few third of the nation is now in states the place…
CONAN: A 3rd of the inhabitants.
GREENBERG: …a 3rd of the inhabitants, proper, not geography, is roofed by the ruling, and in addition with DOMA being thrown out, there are individuals who can have their, you realize, federal advantages in doubtlessly even states that do not have marriage recognition. However I do not assume that the wedding battle’s going to finish on the state degree, for positive.
CONAN: And this extends, Vin Weber, an argument on a number of the social points on which Republicans have felt a bit of susceptible, significantly within the final couple of years.
WEBER: Yeah, I believe that coping with as we speak’s Supreme Courtroom rulings – then with the broader situation that we’re speaking about, homosexual marriage – goes to be difficult for the Republicans going ahead. There has already developed a majority within the nation, as we all know, in favor of the proposition of homosexual marriage. And traditionally, when the Supreme Courtroom guidelines on one thing, the general public tends to a minimum of transfer even additional in that course – not everyone, definitely, and there are exceptions, just like the abortion ruling.
However I might assume that, you realize, that is going to assist solidify a fairly strong majority in favor of homosexual marriage. And as I take heed to candidates across the nation, Republicans – most Republicans, actually do not wish to get right into a battle on this situation. However there’s nonetheless a considerable a part of the Republican base that thinks that as we speak’s resolution was unsuitable, and that opposes homosexual marriage.
CONAN: And Anna, that is going to be – if you happen to’re state capitals, there are 13 states, plus the District of Columbia, if you happen to rely California, which now, homosexual marriage is authorized. The place – what states – do you assume Illinois, Hawaii? After that, it will get a bit of trickier.
GREENBERG: Effectively, there are definitely states like Illinois, like Hawaii. There are even another Midwestern states, doubtlessly Wisconsin down the road, which have the demographic…
CONAN: You imply after the subsequent election, when the Republican governor and the Republican legislature are out of there?
GREENBERG: Proper. I am considering demographically about these states and the place they are going, and what their different attitudes seem like. There’s nonetheless fertile floor for both legislative or electoral form of selections in favor of marriage equality in these states. I believe if you get to a number of the Southern states, particularly, you realize, most of them, if not all of them, have constitutional amendments that you need to overturn, clearly, it will get a lot more durable.
However I simply – as Vin mentioned, the tide has turned. It really turned in 2012. I imply, you may see it fairly clearly, that it was really a greater situation for the Democrats than for the Republicans. And over time, I consider a case will make it to the Supreme Courtroom that invalidates all of those constitutional, you realize, provisions in different states.
So I believe we’ll nonetheless have extra victories, doubtlessly Illinois, Hawaii, long run states like Wisconsin and different locations the place demographically, the states are poised to be in favor of it. They only do not have the suitable political atmosphere but. After which I believe you most likely want a Supreme Courtroom resolution, finally.
CONAN: Vin Weber, the opposite Supreme Courtroom resolution this week on the Voting Rights Act, that appears to have swung the pendulum within the different course, a minimum of politically, that the Republicans appear to face to profit from that.
WEBER: I believe so. That one’s a bit of arduous for me to precisely pin down by way of my very own emotions. After I first was elected to Congress, we needed to reauthorize the Voting Rights Act. And I did vote to reauthorize it, and I keep in mind voting in opposition to each modification that got here ahead to weaken it or water it down or something like that, and I used to be fairly completely happy that that was the suitable factor to do.
However that is over 30 years in the past, and issues have modified now, and I believe that you could make arguments on either side of this. I listened to the impassioned arguments of African-American leaders that this was a step again, however I believed the courtroom additionally dealt with that fairly nicely in arguing that we have made a number of progress, and possibly you should form of let – must let these states show that they don’t seem to be stepping again.
If we see repeated indicators of discrimination based mostly on race in elections going ahead, you will see laws that’ll fill the hole once more. However for now, I believe that is not going to occur.
CONAN: Ken?
RUDIN: Vin, we noticed two utterly – as you say, two utterly totally different courtroom circumstances determined, one which seemingly moved to the – benefitted conservatives, one appeared to profit – with the DOMA and the Proposition 8 – benefitted liberals. However I solely heard from the Democrats and the left both upset about voting rights or exuberant about DOMA. Normally, after we hear – after we – previously, after we had these form of social points, it was conservatives who spoke the loudest.
We noticed that in 2000, 2004, in the course of the Reagan years. However we have not heard a lot from the Republicans in any respect, from the suitable, in these two circumstances. Why is that?
WEBER: Good query. I believe a part of it’s as a result of Republicans are keen – most Republicans are desperate to get on to discussions of the economic system and maybe even international coverage, though that is a bit of extra difficult. They haven’t carried out nicely within the final couple elections with discussions of social points. It is – one may even argue it is value them the possibility to take management of the US Senate within the final election.
And I so assume that they are much much less more likely to wish to communicate out on a few of these points. It does not imply they do not have opinions on them, simply that the Republicans are desperate to get on to a critical dialogue about financial development and the economic system, and maybe even international coverage, though that is more and more divisive throughout the Republican Celebration. However definitely, they do not wish to be speaking in regards to the social points, of which the Supreme Courtroom has been form of the touchstone.
CONAN: Anna?
GREENBERG: I’ve a barely totally different perspective.
CONAN: No.
(LAUGHTER)
GREENBERG: Actually on the wedding selections, I believe we already made the purpose that the place the nation goes, many within the Republican Celebration know they’re on the unsuitable facet of historical past on it. There is a core bunch of activists, largely spiritual, who’re in a distinct place. However, generally, I believe that the institution Republican Celebration is aware of it isn’t a superb situation for them, and so there’s really no level in commenting on it. It would not do them any favors.
I believe on voting rights, it is barely totally different. I believe that there’s proof that in 2012, that turnout in minority communities was partially pushed by assaults on voting rights, whether or not that was within the type of voter ID legal guidelines and even the extra nefarious sorts of voter fraud that, you realize, finally ends up creating lengthy traces on the polls and, you realize, et cetera, et cetera, misinformation about the place your precinct is.
And it is really an extremely energizing situation, not only for the minority group, however liberals. And I believe that, you realize, 2014, midterm elections usually have a whiter, older voters. They are typically extra conservative. I believe the very last thing you need is a mobilized liberal minority voters in midterm elections, and I consider that this resolution has the potential to do this.
On the deserves, you realize, there really are some actual issues, reliable issues round what it should do within the 14 elections, as a result of already, the Texas legal professional normal has mentioned we now can have our voter ID regulation. And there isn’t any treatment till after the election. Now you need to sue. So I’ve issues, clearly, about what it may – the influence’s going to be in actual phrases.
However for a rustic that is more and more numerous and a celebration that isn’t numerous, the Republican Celebration, I believe it’s a – from their perspective, I can see why they shied away from commenting on the Voting Rights Act resolution.
CONAN: And Vin, let me transfer on to the immigration invoice. It appears to be like prefer it’s set to go the US Senate this week with about 15, roughly, Republican votes. That’s, as anyone identified, a minority of the minority, and it appears to be like like it could very nicely fall on stony floor within the Home of Representatives, the place the speaker has mentioned except he has majority of the bulk assist, he is not going to even deliver it up.
WEBER: Yeah, that will doom it. It is – I believe that might be too dangerous, each for the nation and for the Republican Celebration. However it appears to be like as if that is the place we’re headed. They bought a superb, robust vote within the Senate, however not fairly the overwhelming vote that they thought may propel them via the Home of Representatives. However moreover, I believe that the opposition – the opposition on the suitable – to immigration, to complete immigration reform, has accelerated, actually simply even simply in the previous couple of weeks on the grassroots degree, in these states represented by conservative Republicans.
They usually’ve made it very clear that they don’t seem to be going to offer anyone, quote, “a go” on this situation. As I mentioned, my views are fairly totally different on that. I am in favor of complete immigration reform. I believe it will be good for the Republicans finally to do it. However I believe it is wanting more and more tough to perform that within the Home of Representatives.
CONAN: Anna Greenberg, would Democrats, of their coronary heart of hearts, somewhat have a invoice or the difficulty?
GREENBERG: Oh, I believe they’d somewhat have a invoice for many causes. I imply the form of change in ethical phrases clearly could be unimaginable. But additionally in political phrases, you realize, it expands the voters in elementary – it adjustments the nation in ways in which, you realize, I believe continues at a path of being a extra form of progressive nation. So I believe Democrats would welcome it.
I do assume, simply linking this to the Voting Rights Act resolution, if, you realize, immigration fails within the Home and if it fails due to conservative Republicans, which it most likely will, it reinforces the shortage of range and the homogeneity of the Republican Celebration. And I believe additionally by way of mobilizing Hispanic voters I believe is – could also be an issue in 2014 for Republicans.
CONAN: Ken?
RUDIN: Vin, we all the time speak in regards to the classes that the Republicans might have discovered, ought to have discovered after 2012, and considered one of them, after all, was you can’t ignore a rising demographic actuality on this nation, and that’s the rising Latino vote. And but – and we noticed that, after all, watching the numbers that Mitt Romney didn’t get amongst Latinos in 2012. And so right here we’re again once more. We all know that if the Home doesn’t take care of immigration earlier than the August break and the members return, you realize there’s going to be city corridor conferences the place everyone goes to be screaming. That is amnesty. You possibly can’t do that. And so what classes did the Republican Celebration study – they discovered after 2012 given the stalemate on immigration?
WEBER: Effectively, it is arduous to study the long-term lesson in politics if you run free election each two years. And the lesson – the clear lesson of the 2012 election is, long run, the Republican Celebration has to do one thing to be aggressive within the Asian group, the Hispanic group and different minority communities. That is not essentially the message in regards to the 2014 election. Perhaps Anna has a distinct view on that. However we’ve got a decrease turnout, a much less numerous turnout in off-year elections, and the tendency of off-year elections to wish to go in opposition to the occasion of the president in any occasion.
And so I believe, you realize, the lesson has been delay. I believe it is unlucky. You recognize, I believe that the immigration – the passage of an immigration invoice shouldn’t be going to ship Hispanic or Asian votes to the Republican Celebration. Let’s be clear about that. However it does do away with one of many massive points that stops Republicans from having the ability to speak to these communities about different points on which they’ve extra frequent floor.
These are entrepreneurial communities. These are very patriotic communities as immigrants are typically and these are sometimes extra socially conservative communities. However you possibly can’t get to any of these discussions so long as you have got this immigration invoice looming on the market. It is a bit of like what occurred with the Republican Celebration and the African-American vote after the 1964 election when Barry Goldwater, the usual bearer, upholds the 1964 Civil Rights Act and form of emblazen within the minds of African-People or the Republicans, even when they agreed on different points, thought of them second-rate residents.
I do not assume that is a good evaluation of my occasion, however that’s what individuals thought. Effectively, you have bought form of the identical state of affairs now. Quite a lot of Hispanics are coming to the conclusion it would not matter if we agree with Republicans on social points and taxes and spending and nationalism if they do not assume we needs to be right here within the first place. That is the chance for Republicans.
CONAN: We’re speaking with Vin Weber, the previous Republican congressman, now a Republican marketing campaign advisor. Additionally with us is Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg. After all, Political Junkie Ken Rudin is with us. You are listening to TALK OF THE NATION from NPR Information. And that is an ideal pivot into upcoming elections. We have got a pair this 12 months, after which, after all, 2014 when Democrats have a tricky street to hoe with all these seats to defend in the US Senate.
However, Anna, I needed to ask you, we have seen a few particular elections not too long ago. South Carolina the place a weakened Republican candidate in a closely Republican district managed to win fairly handily. We noticed in Massachusetts a particular election the place a lackluster Democratic candidate gained pretty handily in a solidly Democratic state. Does this argue that we will see a wave someway come this fall and the autumn after?
GREENBERG: Effectively, proper now, and clearly it is early as a result of there’s a number of issues that may occur between now and subsequent summer season when issues form of get extra form of settled on what the precise temper of the election or the factor…
CONAN: We will be right here subsequent summer season so…
GREENBERG: That is true.
CONAN: …get out on that ledge.
GREENBERG: Oh, no, no. However proper now, if you happen to take a look at each these particular elections and also you take a look at, you realize, the place public opinion is, issues appear very steady, very established order. There is not a number of proof. Even the Virginia governor’s race proper now, which, you realize, in 2009 was…
CONAN: It needs to be very aggressive.
GREENBERG: …form of one of many indicators. There’s Coakley after which defeat in Massachusetts after which the governor. It was a, you realize, signal of the wave. However you do not see that. Even within the Virginia governor’s race, it’s extremely, very shut with two arguably flawed candidates. So I do not see an enormous quantity of proof both method. It may clearly shift. We simply launched a congressional battleground ballot via Democracy Corps and confirmed that the general partisan atmosphere appears to be like fairly near what it regarded like in 2012.
So this notion that Vin raised, which is true, that always in midterms who wish to go in opposition to the occasion of the president, there would not appear to be a number of proof in that. Actually, there appears to be actual erosion within the Republican model round largely obstruction and form of stopping issues from getting carried out in Washington. It is changing into an even bigger and larger drawback, you realize, pushed by Home Republicans. And, you realize, if immigration reform fails, it will likely be one other piece of proof that that is form of how they function.
And so possibly that the Republican model changing into so discredited form of in some methods is a countervailing drive in opposition to form of the tendency to wish to vote in opposition to, you realize, the incumbent president. And I might additionally add that the economic system is doing higher. Persons are nonetheless actually hurting, and we can not – and that is vital to recollect. However it’s, you realize, doable the enhancements within the economic system is also a countervailing drive in opposition to the tendency to wish to, you realize, vote in opposition to the incumbent president.
CONAN: And Vin…
WEBER: I believe…
CONAN: Go forward. I did not imply to interrupt.
WEBER: I believe that Anna is correct about these issues. I learn the Democracy Corps evaluation, and it’s a warning sign to Republicans. However there are some traits that reinforce the notion that we will have an election that votes in opposition to the occasion of the president. The president’s approval score is falling. Arguably, there are few correlating components better to an off-year vote than the president’s approval score.
And the implementation of the well being care invoice doesn’t appear to be going nicely. It appears to be more and more unpopular. It should be rolled out over the subsequent 12 months and be an even bigger situation subsequent 12 months. And there isn’t any proof but that it is something aside from detrimental. So, you realize, I am not saying what Anna mentioned shouldn’t be true, however there are different components which say it most likely will likely be a extra regular off-year election which the Republicans will do moderately nicely, not a wave election like we noticed in 2010, however an election which the Republicans achieve seats.
CONAN: And do you see any of the difficulties the president has been having these previous couple of weeks – the IRS, the NSA and all these different issues? Do you assume any of these are going to have legs?
WEBER: Not individually. I do not assume any a kind of points goes into the subsequent election as a problem that individuals really vote on. I believe it has a normal impact of weakening the president and weakening the arguments in favor of optimistic authorities the Democrats should run on. So I believe it helps the Republicans.
GREENBERG: I do not know. I imply, I believe that they are all totally different from one another. So whereas the NSA situation is an argument, for instance, on the left. Should you take a look at the American public, majority favor – in essence, favor this system. I consider that there is a stability between privateness and safety.
CONAN: Together with most likely a majority of Republicans.
GREENBERG: Proper. So I believe that you need to distinguish IRS from NSA. I do not assume they’re all the identical. However, look, I believe that the proof is fairly clear that it hasn’t actually have an effect on his rankings all that a lot. There hasn’t been a direct influence that we have seen.
CONAN: Once we come again, extra with Anna Greenberg and Vin Weber and with Political Junkie Ken Rudin. If you would like to ask Ken Rudin some questions in regards to the elections of 2014 and the elections of, nicely, 2016, give us a name, 800-989-8255. Electronic mail us: speak@npr.org. Stick with us. I am Neal Conan. It is the TALK OF THE NATION from NPR Information.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)
CONAN: We’re right here on our final Political Junkie Wednesday with Ken Rudin, Anna Greenberg and Vin Weber, looking forward to what’s coming down the street for Republicans and Democrats in 2014 and 2016. And we will have questions for Ken too, 800-989-8255. Electronic mail: speak@npr.org.
Vin Weber, Republicans thought they’d an actual shot to take management of the US Senate final November. They’ve one other clear shot at it in 2014. Do you assume they’d get it carried out this time?
WEBER: I believe they are going to come shut. They, you realize, we clearly gave away sufficient seats within the final election in order that we needs to be a lot nearer to having a majority now. There’s doubtlessly sufficient aggressive seats for the Republicans to take management this time, however they’d should just about win all of these aggressive seats and that is unlikely. I believe that their – I believe Republicans will achieve, you realize, possibly three seats, possibly 4 seats, one thing like that. That might be a fairly recreation. However management nonetheless is a bit of distant except we really see that wave election creating that we have been speaking about, however which isn’t on the horizon proper now.
CONAN: Anna?
GREENBERG: I believe it’s going to be arduous to take again the Senate. I believe the map – if you happen to simply take a look at every state, it is arduous to see a state of affairs the place it occurs. After which additionally, going again to the dialog we have been simply having, I believe the difficulty atmosphere is de facto robust for Republicans. The model is not critical, bother for lots of causes. The…
CONAN: I heard what you mentioned. However in these circumstances, do not particular person candidates matter an enormous quantity?
GREENBERG: They do, for positive, however the nationwide atmosphere issues too. What the precise dialog is about issues too. So if you happen to take well being care, for instance, I really assume it’s not the case that – opinion about ACA is altering. Actually, it is extremely steady. And you have examples in states like California the place you are beginning to see the regulation work and really have some good outcomes. I believe it’s extremely unsure if Republicans will have the ability to run in opposition to Democrats on ACA, the federal government takeover deficit, IRS, et cetera, which what they wish to do.
CONAN: Inexpensive Care Act, the Obamacare.
GREENBERG: Precisely. When it begins – really they applied and, you realize, thus far, it is really wanting, you realize, fairly good. So, sure, you are proper, particular person candidates matter, however I additionally assume the nationwide atmosphere issues. And it isn’t clear to me that it is an overwhelmingly favorable one in the direction of Republicans.
CONAN: And, Ken – I am sorry, Vin. You needed to say one thing?
WEBER: Effectively, I simply – we respect one another, however I do not agree with that. I believe ACA continues to be a superb voting situation for Republicans. And I believe on a complete vary of points the general public is lining up on the Republicans facet. The general public continues to assist spending discount versus stimulus. And I believe on a spread of points, the Republican place goes to be fairly good. I agree with Anna, the Republican model is struggling proper now, however it’s not as a result of – crucial place that the individuals care about on points is de facto out of step with Republicans.
GREENBERG: Oh, Vin, however background checks, abortion, immigration, I imply, you simply identify the listing of points that each the state and the nationwide degree as a result of, clearly, the – really the most important battleground is the governors’ races, I believe, extra so than the Senate races. And, constantly, the Republicans are out of step with most individuals on these points. And with the economic system getting higher, it is simply arduous to see how, you realize, the way you get traction round the place this nation going the place the narrative is when it is on each single situation on the unsuitable facet of the place persons are.
CONAN: Vin, you wish to come again after which we’ll transfer alongside?
WEBER: No. We – no, we simply do not agree on that, however there isn’t any level in dwelling on it for much longer.
(LAUGHTER)
GREENBERG: OK.
WEBER: We’ll discover out subsequent 12 months.
GREENBERG: OK.
CONAN: And, Ken, as you take a look at the congressional map, the states have so fastidiously outlined these districts to make them secure Democrat or secure Republican. It is arduous to see a complete bunch swinging someway.
RUDIN: Yeah. Quite a lot of Democrats have been speaking about that the longest time, saying that the way in which they redistricted after the 2010 elections or after the 2010 census that these Republicans, for probably the most half, these districts could also be locked someway Democrat or Republican via the subsequent census, 2020. So it is arduous to think about, arduous to foresee the Republicans shedding the bulk within the Home earlier than then.
CONAN: Now, we will ask you to step out in an excellent thinner and better ledge, 2016. Anna Greenberg, the Democratic Celebration has a presumptive front-runner, after all, the identical presumptive front-runner they’d in 2008 who didn’t get the nomination – Hillary Clinton, after all.
GREENBERG: True. But when Hillary Clinton have been to run, which I hope she does, she is going to utterly clear the first subject. There could be a Dennis Kucinich or somebody like that who decides or Ralph Nader who decides. Effectively, after all, he could be an impartial candidate, however she’ll clear the sphere. And really, you realize, and you will have, I assume, a reasonably contentious Republican major subject.
And so really, you realize, if she have been to run the marketing campaign proper, she would have a number of time to construct the form of marketing campaign that she would wish to run whereas the Republicans have a contentious major. So I believe that she’s very nicely positioned. She’ll clearly get the nomination, and she or he’ll nicely positioned really to win, I believe, in 2016.
CONAN: And, Vin Weber, is there a Republican who shouldn’t be operating for president?
(LAUGHTER)
WEBER: We’ve a number of candidates operating, and I anticipate we’ll have a fairly broad subject. I do not know if Anna is correct or unsuitable about Hillary Clinton clearing the sphere. She may, however it appears unlikely to me that an non-incumbent president can clear the sphere. Anyone goes to emerge. Anyone goes to make a problem out of it. And the notion that she’s, you realize, heading ahead towards a coronation, which is possibly not honest towards her, however that is what – that is not going to assist her. It should entice individuals to an opponent. I am not saying she’ll lose the nomination. I simply do not assume it may fairly be the clear subject that Anna predicted.
On the Republican facet, I believe we will have a number of candidates. Probably the most attention-grabbing factor in my thoughts is what seems to be the emergence of Rand Paul as a critical presidential candidate. I do know his father. We have all watched his father in presidential politics for a few years, and he all the time had an influence. However there was by no means a risk that he may win the Republican nomination. A minimum of I did not ever assume there was. However Rand Paul is wanting like a candidate who’s going to be a critical candidate nationwide.
So we add – Jeb Bush appears to be like as if he could also be attending to the race. He would clearly be a critical candidate. Governor Christie’s most likely headed towards an enormous re-election victory within the very blue state of New Jersey. That’ll make him a critical candidate. And we’ll see how Senator Rubio emerges from the immigration battle, however he nonetheless has a reservoir of enchantment within the Republican Celebration. And different those who we have not talked about lots like Governor Mike Pence of Indiana who, I believe, finally desires to have a look at operating for president. Quite a lot of potential candidates, all of them, in my opinion, have some strengths. And, after all, each candidate has a weak spot too.
GREENBERG: However a part of the issue with the Republican Celebration, which, once more, is illustrated by what I mentioned round being on the unsuitable facet on marriage, abortion, immigration, you continue to have an extremely conservative Republican base. Except we noticed within the final Republican major the place everybody was pushed very far proper, I believe you are still going to have that very same dynamic this time round, which, once more, by way of Hillary Clinton, I believe, positions her very, very nicely in distinction to the Republican subject.
CONAN: Ken? Shortly.
RUDIN: Simply rapidly on this. Marco Rubio, who’s a Tea Celebration favourite when he was elected in 2010, is now be – now seen as a Judas and a traitor for his function within the Gang of Eight on immigration. In order that simply reveals how a as soon as Tea Celebration hero has moved into the institution, reveals how a lot the occasion has moved to the suitable.
CONAN: Effectively, Washington corrupts. All people is aware of that. Ken, Anna Greenberg and Vin Weber, it has been nice to have you ever on this program for – I do not keep in mind how lengthy it’s – eight, 9, 10 years. However thanks a lot. You’ve got contributed a lot to our understanding, and we actually do admire it, and particularly for taking, you realize, holding away that air time from Ken.
(LAUGHTER)
GREENBERG: Effectively, I can not even inform you what a privilege and honor it has been to be on this present and what I’ve discovered from you and the way a lot enjoyable it has been. And I’m actually, really, very, very unhappy. So thanks.
CONAN: Effectively, Anna Greenberg. And, Vin, because of you too.
WEBER: Effectively, I wish to echo what Anna mentioned, and I additionally wish to say I am going to miss being on with Anna regardless that we do not agree on a number of politics.
GREENBERG: I am going to miss you, too, Vin.
(LAUGHTER)
GREENBERG: She’s about nearly as good as they arrive, and it has been each an honor and a pleasure and a number of enjoyable.
CONAN: Vin Weber, a companion at Mercury Public Affairs, former Republican consultant from Minnesota, with us as we speak from Des Moines Public Radio. Anna Greenberg is senior vice chairman and principal at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Analysis. Ken, you bought time for a few questions from callers?
RUDIN: I do.
CONAN: Yeah. All proper. Let’s examine. Let’s go to Tally(ph), Tally with us from Marion, Iowa.
TALLY: Hello. Thanks each. I like the present. I questioned, in your opinion, whom within the Senate is – I do not wish to be cynical, however who do you see as being imperiled by the 2014 election? Do you assume anybody is de facto in danger and, in that case, who?
CONAN: Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska, off the highest of my head.
RUDIN: Effectively, yeah. I imply, it appears to be like like if you happen to’re wanting on the Republicans who’re operating, it does not imply like all Republican is de facto in peril. I imply, there’s some query about whether or not Thad Cochran runs in Mississippi. Some questions on that. However it looks like the Democrats are most endangered. Proper now, it appears to be like just like the Republicans take two open seats in South Dakota the place Tim Johnson is retiring, in West Virginia the place Jay Rockefeller is retiring. After which you need to fear in regards to the Mark Begichs and the Mark – Mark Begich of Alaska, Mark Prior of Arkansas, maybe Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, possibly Kay Hagan of North Carolina. These are incumbent Democrats who should look out for his or her re-election troubles.
CONAN: Tally, thanks very a lot for the decision. Let’s go subsequent to Jason, Jason with us from Palo Alto.
JASON: Hey. I wish to simply ask Ken who ought to Hillary Clinton decide in 2016 ought to she resolve to run for a operating mate. And most significantly, I like your present. I am sorry to see you each go away. You are the first purpose I donate to KQED Radio. Thanks a lot.
CONAN: Effectively, Jason, thanks for that.
RUDIN: Effectively, thanks. They have been speaking about Wendy Lewis – Wendy Davis. There are already Hillary Clinton-Wendy Davis bumper stickers out for 2016. You recognize when…
CONAN: Justin(ph), by the way in which, simply despatched us a tweet. Clinton-Rudin 2016?
RUDIN: I am not sufficiently old to be a vice chairman, no. And in addition to I must be a Democrat. I’m not a Democrat. I am not a Republican. I’m the individuals. Sure. Sure. However anyway, you realize, we talked about – I keep in mind when Howard Dean was discussing who his operating mate could be within the fall of 2003. And, after all, he by no means survived Iowa-New Hampshire. It is untimely. I agree with Anna that she is obvious frontrunner. However, you realize, proper now, maybe the Martin O’Malleys of the world – possibly they run for vice chairman to get a leg up on future elections.
CONAN: And yet another fast one. That is from Mark(ph), Mark with us from Portland.
MARK: Sure, howdy. Thanks for taking my name. I like the present. My query is, provided that the demographics within the nation look like closely skewed in each instructions – rural, conservative, city, liberal – and provided that the city populations are rising and provided that the agricultural populations look like reducing, would not that inform the Republican Celebration or bode – or, you realize, ship a transparent message to the Republican Celebration that main change is required. I have been a Republican my complete life, and I see the occasion at presidential degree – Senate degree, I believe is lifeless. My prediction is we’re not going to take one other presidential race. The Senate’s not going to vary arms for a very long time. And I would like to listen to your feedback on that.
RUDIN: Effectively, principally, the strongest state that the Republicans have for the presidency has been Texas, and we’re very conscious, as you level out, and as Vin has identified, that the demographics are altering there. So if the Republican Celebration desires to have a tough line in immigration, that might simply push Texas to be a blue state before later. And I assume the query is, because the demographics are altering, how do the Republican Celebration take care of that with these altering numbers?
CONAN: Fascinating, although. You considered that, and attention-grabbing dynamic on the farm invoice, which was defeated simply final week since you had a revolt within the Republican Celebration, which was often reliably agricultural in favor in subsidies to farmers. And, nicely, the Tea Celebration wing of the Home Republicans mentioned completely not. The Democrats opposed. They mentioned we’d like an even bigger lower for meals stamps. Democrats voted no as a result of they thought the lower was too massive for meals stamps.
RUDIN: Effectively, look what is going on on within the immigration invoice. I imply, there a number of Republicans within the Home who say it isn’t robust sufficient. So that they have this Corker-Hoeven modification that handed overwhelmingly as we speak.
CONAN: The surge to the border.
RUDIN: Proper. It doubles the U.S. Border Patrol to 40,000 brokers. It is 700 miles of recent border fencing. There have been drone plane. There’s infrared floor sensors. It going to value $25 billion. And Republicans within the Home say that is amnesty. So if that is not robust sufficient for Republicans within the Home, how do they acknowledge that rising hole they’ve with Latino voters and different minorities?
CONAN: Political Junkie Ken Rudin is with us. You are listening to TALK OF THE NATION from NPR Information. And, Ken, in spite of everything this time, it is time for us to say goodbye.
RUDIN: OK. See you, Neal. Bye.
CONAN: Yeah.
RUDIN: Effectively, I wish to – I wrote some issues down as a result of I did not wish to neglect something. However you realize one thing, we have been collectively – because of DOMA – no – since 2006, the Political Junkie section has been on TALK OF THE NATION. And we have touched lots of people largely throughout the regulation. However, look, we made politics enjoyable. We made it entertaining and we made it, I believe, a must-listen present on NPR. Sue Goodwin, our govt producer, talked from the start that – she all the time mentioned that Junkie was alternative listening of individuals – I am sorry – appointment…
CONAN: Appointment listening.
RUDIN: …appointment listening, and folks principally deliberate their Wednesdays on a number of what we did. So I wish to thank – I imply, there’s so many individuals to thank. I wish to thank Sue Goodwin. She believed in Political Junkie section from the start. I wish to thank Laura Lee, our superb Political Junkie producer. She is completely superb. It is an incredible TALK OF THE NATION employees. I wish to thank the hundreds and hundreds of people that write to me each day. I believe you have been nice. I believe you have been horrible. That is what works. That is what would not work.
We discuss this being in a dialog. This can be a dialog, and I actually, actually admire the chance. And, Neal, I will miss you great. I believe – I simply love our rapport forwards and backwards – what we do and I believe it really works. And I simply am grateful for these final seven years working with you.
CONAN: The Wednesday’s first hour has been the spotlight of my skilled working week, each single week. And there’s nothing extra annoying that Ken Rudin on trip. Effectively, possibly Ken Rudin not on trip. However the reality is the Political Junkie section, as you say, has actually scored successful with lots of people within the viewers. And there was great response, and I have been doing any variety of exit interviews with member stations over the previous week and folks saying that is the factor they are going to miss. And, nicely, I say what, I am chopped liver? Anyway, Ken, it has been actually nice, and we do should thank Sue, who’s been so nice and gave us the chance, additionally, together with NPR administration to take the present on the street to numerous locations.
RUDIN: These Political Junkie street reveals in Orlando, in Saint Louis, and we went so far as D.C. (unintelligible).
CONAN: Completely. (Unintelligible), a few complete blocks away.
RUDIN: However in all places I’m going, each time I speak to individuals, they are saying they love the Political Junkie. They love TALK OF THE NATION. They usually – and it will likely be missed. And even I’ll miss it.
(LAUGHTER)
CONAN: Ken, thanks very a lot. We additionally should thank the various friends who suffered to return on this system and listen to dangerous jokes with us. And – nicely, individuals like Anna Greenberg and Vin Weber, who had been right here with us all alongside. And there is yet another individual we’ve got to thank who’s been a key member of this solid all alongside. I’ll say, I am Neal Conan, and this TALK OF THE NATION from NPR Information. And due to Roger McGuinn.
(SOUNDBITE OF SONG, “I WANT TO GROW UP TO BE A POLITICIAN”)
ROGER MCGUINN: (Singing) I wish to develop as much as be a politician and take over this stunning land. I wish to develop as much as be a politician and be the previous U.S. of A.’s primary man. I am going to all the time be robust, however I am going to by no means be scary. I wish to shoot weapons or butter my bread. I am going to work within the cities or conservate the prairies. And you may consider the long run’s forward. I am going to give the younger the suitable to vote as quickly as they mature. However spare the rod and spoil the kid to assist them really feel safe.
(Singing) And if I win Election Day I’d offer you a job. I am going to signal a invoice to assist the poor to indicate I am not a snob. I am going to open my door, I am charging no admission. And you may make sure I am going to offer you my hand. I wish to develop as much as be a politician and take over this stunning land. I am going to make you glad you bought me in with all the things I do. And I am going to defend till the tip the previous crimson white and blue. I wish to develop as much as be a politician and take over this stunning land. And take over this stunning land. And take over this stunning land.
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