In the global race to decarbonise, Australia is a patchwork of progress.
Some states, like Tasmania, are surging towards reaching net zero this decade. Others are emitting more greenhouse gases than ever before.
That’s especially true in Western Australia — the country’s biggest resources producer — which has some climate scientists particularly worried.
The WA government’s own modelling shows the state would not meet net zero by 2050 based on its current trajectory.
So what does that mean for Australia’s efforts to halt global warming?
Can we still do it without WA?
What’s the plan right now?
Australia has committed to keeping global average temperature increases to well below two degrees Celsius, as part of the 2015 Paris agreement.
The Albanese Government wants to reduce emissions by 43 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 — and reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
These targets have been described as ambitious and the government will need all the help it can get from the states and territories.
Across the country there are only two jurisdictions that don’t have whole-of-economy emissions reductions targets for 2030 – the Northern Territory and Western Australia.
Both have rising greenhouse gas emissions and have been keeping their emissions projections under wraps.
Can WA reach net zero by 2050?
Based on its current trajectory, no — and this is why.
In an unreleased WA government-commissioned report obtained by the ABC, it was said WA’s emissions would need to be 11 per cent below 2005 levels in 2030 and 42 per cent below in 2035 in order to meet its own net zero target.
But the projections are a far cry from that.
The modelling shows under the current state of play, WA’s emissions would be just 2 per cent below 2005 levels in 2030 and 20 per cent below in 2035.
The report, by the independent Climateworks Centre, says deeper emissions cuts are possible in WA, but much more work would be needed over the next decade to make the most cost-effective pathway viable.
Decarbonisation of the electricity grid is a key solution, and a “significant long-term effort is needed” to drive down emissions from major sources like LNG extraction.
The best-case scenario painted in the report is that “green” exports like hydrogen start booming while there is a reduced demand for fossil fuels like coal and LNG — resources that are plentiful in WA.
Can Australia get there without WA?
It is technically possible, but other states would have to do the heavy lifting.
That’s according to Professor Mark Howden, the director of the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions at the Australian National University.
He said if WA’s trajectory continued, “it would seem unlikely that Australia can meet its international obligations”.
“The purpose of emission reductions is not to reach some target such as net zero,” Professor Howden said.
“It is to prevent unwanted and damaging climate changes and sea level rise and related impacts.
“These are already impacting heavily on West Australians and these impacts are likely to increase.
“So it would appear to be rational for WA to take a leadership position on emission-reductions.”
How is the rest of the country tracking?
The Federal Government says the latest data shows the country is on track to reach 42 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.
But in terms of the progress across individual jurisdictions, Professor Howden said it’s a mixed bag.
Tasmania and South Australia get a big tick for their long-term emission reductions efforts.
The ACT, New South Wales and Victoria have made rapid emissions reductions, though Queensland and the Northern Territory are “bouncing around”.
But like WA, the NT’s emissions have been rising since 2005.
“The only state with a fairly steady increase in emissions is WA,” Professor Howden said.
“The states and territories that are reducing their emissions are largely achieving this via rapid rollout of renewables or reductions in land clearing.”
What’s the problem with WA?
Climate Action Minister Reece Whitby said WA faces unique challenges to decarbonisation due to its major export industries – like LNG and iron ore.
Then there’s the fact that WA’s electricity generation still comes predominantly from fossil fuels – mainly gas.
Renewables make up just 18 per cent of energy generation in WA.
By comparison, renewables made up 26 per cent in QLD, 36 per cent in NSW, 40 per cent in VIC, 74 per cent in SA and 98 per cent in TAS last year.
Queensland, which is the highest emitting state overall, has a target to reduce its electricity sector emissions by 96 per cent by 2040.
New wind and solar projects, pumped hydro storage and batteries are set to be the key drivers.
It has targets to deliver 80 per cent renewable generation by 2035.
By comparison, WA does not have a whole of economy renewable energy target or interim emissions reduction targets in the lead up to 2050.
This week, the head of WA’s state-owned power utility Synergy said by 2029, WA’s major electricity network was likely to be powered by a 50/50 split of renewables and gas.
Minister Whitby argues WA is indeed helping the world decarbonise, because the state’s gas and iron ore are needed to build renewable infrastructure necessary to help other countries reach their goals and get off coal.
“We have so much of what the world needs to create a clean energy future that it would be morally wrong to withhold these resources,” he told a environmental health conference in Perth this week.
“Simply reducing our state emissions will not solve climate change.
“What we do here, and the emissions that result, plays a much greater role in reducing emissions around the world.
“We will decarbonise by creating new industries and new jobs – not by turning the lights off and living on green grass and honky nuts.”
But is it that simple?
Professor Howden disagreed with the idea that WA’s gas exports could help decarbonise other countries.
“Gas is a fossil fuel,” he said.
“Every time we burn it we add to climate change.”
So what is WA actually doing?
That’s not to say WA isn’t doing anything to reduce emissions.
State-owned coal power stations are being retired by 2030, native forest logging is ending and more than $5.4 billion is being invested on the energy transition, including new generation, transmission and storage.
The government has also committed to reducing emissions from the public sector to 80 per cent below 2020 levels by 2030.
But it’s clear much more action is needed to get to net zero.
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