The country has been suffering from a weak economy, high unemployment, and inflation, yet analysts believe Ebrahim Raisi’s death will not trigger any changes
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In nearly half a century of Iran’s theocracy, a president and his prime minister were bombed, and some leaders were placed under house arrest or sidelined from politics. Yet, the regime remains unbroken, despite growing dissatisfaction from citizens.
Just last weekend, President Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister were killed in a helicopter crash in the mountainous region of Iran while returning from inaugurating a joint dam with Azerbaijan.
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The power structure, designed by the theocratic regime’s founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, positions the president as the second-highest ranking official, though with limited authority. In Iran, the president has no control over the armed forces; instead, the Supreme Leader is the commander-in-chief of all armed forces, including the intelligence agency, and has the sole authority to declare war or peace with another country.
Raisi’s sudden death did not interrupt the daily operations of the Islamic Republic. This is not because he was not a key figure but because Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, is the sole decision-maker of the country, setting the tone of domestic and foreign policies.
“Our dear people must be sure that no disruption will occur in the country’s work,” said Khamenei, hours after the chopper crash as he tried to project stability and strength of the regime. “All work of the country will go on in an orderly manner.”
When Iran’s last monarchy was overthrown by Islamists in 1979, the Islamic Republic lost many of its clergymen and technocrats to assassination, including president Mohammad Ali Rajai and prime minister Mohammad Javad Bahonar, amid a full-scale war with neighbouring Iraq and looming civil war and instability.
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However, Iran has learned lessons from those losses.
“Look at the history of the assassinations,” said Ali Ghanbarpour-Dizboni, an associate professor at Royal Military College. “The regime learned how to adapt quickly … it’s a kind of very expected things that might happen in that country with this history of assassination, elimination, inter-killing and all that.”
But unlike his predecessors, Raisi was widely seen as the most loyal to the aging Supreme Leader and a potential option for his successor. In the 2021 presidential election, the regime orchestrated his victory by disqualifying his serious rivals. The election had record low turnout.
“He was more like a yes man for Khamenei,” said Ghanbarpour-Dizboni.
Iran witnessed some of the largest antigovernment protests under Raisi’s presidency after Mahsa Amini, a young Iranian woman, was killed by police in custody in Tehran in 2022. In response, the regime killed and imprisoned hundreds of civilian protesters, including women and children.
The country has been suffering from a weak economy, high unemployment, and inflation. Severe international sanctions, primarily imposed by the United States, have further caused the situation to deteriorate. Despite Raisi’s pledge for reforms, corruption remained high in the government.
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Muhammad Sahimi, a professor at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, says Raisi’s rise to power was only due to his “absolute loyalty to Khamenei.”
“He worked in the judiciary for decades, beginning at the age of 18, and helped put down the opposition. Through the special court for the clergy he also controlled and jailed the dissident clerics who opposed Khamenei,” added Sahimi. “Otherwise, he had little significance.”
Abroad, Iran is involved in a shadow war with its regional foe, Israel. The two countries have come to the brink of a direct confrontation after Iran fired missiles and drones in retaliation for the targeting of its senior army officials in Syria. The war in the Gaza Strip and Tehran’s backing of the Hamas terrorist group and other regional proxies in the Middle East indicate how Iran has cultivated influence beyond its borders. But will the death of Raisi bring changes to the Islamic Republic’s regional and global policies?
Analysts believe his death will not trigger any changes.
“Foreign policy and national security strategy are set by Ayatollah Khamenei and the (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps) senior officers,” said Sahimi. “Since Iran’s foreign policy and particularly its policy for the Middle East will not change significantly, Raisi’s death will not have any implications for the U.S. and Israel.”
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Arab stakeholders like Saudi Arabia, a key regional rival of the Shiite theocratic regime, Israel and indirectly the United States, should not expect changes in Iran’s direction as long as the Supreme Leader is holding on to the power, said Ali.
“That’s not going to happen,” added Ali. “They take their orders from the highest point of power in Iran.”
Internally, according to Iran’s constitution, Raisi’s deputy Mohammad Mokhber will take over his duties, and the country must hold elections within 50 days. Raisi’s sudden death creates a new dilemma regarding whom the Supreme Leader will endorse as the next president. Raisi came from an ultra-conservative clerical family and was often referred to as the “Butcher of Tehran” due to his involvement in the execution of thousands of anti-regime political prisoners.
Raisi is reported to have been a member of a small judicial committee in 1988 responsible for the execution of thousands of political activists who played a key role in Iran’s 1979 revolution. During his presidency, he initiated crackdowns and oversaw the jailing and killing of hundreds of young protesters.
“There will be no shortage of candidates who profess their loyalty to Khamenei,” said Sahimi. “The key question is, however, whether low turnout in the national elections over the past several years, which implies loss of legitimacy of the regime, will induce a better thinking and policy by Khamenei, trying to shore up the support for his regime.”
Despite not naming or suggesting a successor, Raisi was widely seen as a potential candidate to succeed the 85-year-old Supreme Leader. Ghanbarpour-Dizboni suggests that Raisi’s death shortens the list of candidates and increases the chances for Khamenei’s secretive son, also a cleric but rarely seen in public, to take over.
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