The Tory election campaign has been plunged into fresh crisis after three new opinion polls showed the party on course to lose hundreds of seats.
Even Rishi Sunak’s previously-safe Yorkshire seat could be at risk as Conservative support collapses.
The YouGov, Savanta and More in Common polls were released after a cabinet minister became the first to concede that Labour is heading for a “large majority”.
All three were carried out using the so-called “MRP” method, which surveys more people than normal and gives a seat-by-seat prediction to supposedly try to come up with a more accurate forecast.
According to Savanta, Labour is on course to win an astonishing 516 seats, with the Tories reduced to just 53 – handing Keir Starmer an unprecedented 382-seat majority.
It said the PM’s Richmond seat, which he held at the last election with a majority of 27,210, is now “too close to call”.
Chris Hopkins, the pollsters’ political research director, said: “These figures are stark, but are a consequence of the almost unique set of events conspiring against the Conservative Party this election – from the short campaign effects of the D-Day gaffe and the rise of Reform UK, to the longer-term brand challenges going back to the mini budget and partygate.”
The YouGov poll puts Labour on 425 seats, with the Tories collapsing to 108, while More in Common has Labour on 406 and the Conservatives on 155.
The three polls come hard on the heels of another last night by Ipsos UK, which forecast a 256-seat Labour majority.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “The fact that this projection showing the Conservatives barely holding 150 seats is one of the most favourable to the Conservatives shows how deep a hole the party finds itself in – with barely two weeks to go for them to change the dial.
“Far from the narrowing in the polls many expected to see by now, the Conservatives’ position instead appears to be getting worse and only a small move away from them could see them reduced to 107 seats.
“Labour on the other hand looks set to inherit a historic majority while remaining largely undefined in the eyes of the electorate.
“While creating such a broad electoral coalition, that will span from Blue Wall Worthing to Blyth in the Red Wall, is a good problem to have in the short term, it points to potential difficulties in creating a governing agenda that unites such disparate tribes – especially when electoral cynicism is so high.”
