Rishi Sunak’s election campaign has gone from bad to worse as a rapidly escalating gambling scandal becomes the latest misfortune to mar the Conservatives.
Multiple figures within Mr Sunak’s orbit have become embroiled in an investigation around alleged bets on the timing of the election.
Here’s how the saga has unfolded, and what it means for polling day.
What happened?
Last week it emerged Craig Williams, who is standing for a parliamentary seat in Wales, bet 100 pounds ($190) that Sunak would call an election for July, just days before he did.
Mr Williams stood to win 500 pounds ($950).
It was a surprise to both politicians and voters when Mr Sunak announced Britons would head to the polls on July 4, as many had expected an autumn (September–December) election.
Asked whether he had placed the bet based on inside information, Mr Williams told the BBC: “I clearly made a huge error of judgement, that’s for sure, and I apologise.”
Who else is involved?
A few days later, one of Mr Sunak’s security guards was arrested over alleged bets on the timing of the election.
The scandal erupted further when Britain’s gambling regulators revealed they were investigating a second Conservative Party candidate, Laura Saunders.
Ms Saunders is running for a seat in the south-west English city of Bristol.
Critically, she’s also married to the party’s campaign director, Tony Lee.
Now, just two weeks out from the election, Mr Lee has stepped aside.
The Conservative Party — colloquially known as the Tories — confirmed he was taking a leave of absence.
The statement followed reports that the Gambling Commission was looking into allegations of improper betting by Mr Lee and his wife.
“We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals,” a Conservative spokesperson said.
“As the Gambling Commission is an independent body, it wouldn’t be proper to comment further, until any process is concluded.”
Is betting on an election date illegal?
No, but betting with insider knowledge is.
British bookmakers allow bets on everything from sports to politics, and the timing of an election is a popular bet.
However, placing bets with insider knowledge is a criminal offence.
What has Rishi Sunak said?
During a televised debate on the BBC, Mr Sunak vowed to “boot” his fellow Tories from the party if they were found to have broken the rules.
“I was incredibly angry to learn of these allegations. It’s a really serious matter,” Mr Sunak told the live studio audience.
“It’s right that they’re being investigated properly. I want to be crystal clear that if anyone has broken the rules, they should face the full force of the law.
“I will make sure that they are booted out of the Conservative Party.”
Opposition leader Keir Starmer told the BBC that it is “very telling Rishi Sunak has not suspended candidates”.
“If it was one of my candidates, they’d be gone and their feet would not have touched the floor.”
What do the polls say?
Mr Starmer is set to become prime minister with a 200-seat parliamentary majority, the biggest for any party for a century, according to the latest poll by YouGov.
A separate poll predicted Mr Sunak could become the first British prime minister in history to lose his own seat in a national election.
Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said this week it would be “very tough” for the Conservatives to win.
“I don’t think any of us would pretend that is the most likely outcome.”
The Conservatives were already far behind in opinion polls when Mr Sunak called the election, hoping that an upturn in economic data would help his party narrow the gap with Labour.
But that has failed to materialise for a Conservative campaign beset by missteps.
Mr Sunak’s election announcement was off to an inauspicious start when he announced the July poll in the pouring rain with no umbrella.
Most notably, he received widespread criticism when he left D-Day commemorations in France earlier than other world leaders, for which he apologised.
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