Women walk in front of a ‘population clock’ showing India’s population, on World Population Day in Mumbai. File
| Photo Credit: Emmanual Yogini
The last census conducted in India was in 2011 and the decennial counting measure has been postponed indefinitely since 2021. Census numbers play a vital role in identifying beneficiaries for a myriad welfare schemes which could include specific ones such as building schools for tribal children to the large Public Distribution System (PDS). The absence of the census is bound to have grave consequences.
The BJP-led government has repeatedly asserted, including in Parliament, that Census 2021 had to be postponed due to the pandemic. But India stands only among a select few countries that have not conducted the latest Census — 44 of 233 nations. Of the 189 (81%) that managed to conduct their latest rounds, 143 did so after March 2020, the period when COVID-19 started playing havoc across countries. India shares the dubious distinction of not conducting the census with conflict-ridden countries such as Ukraine (invaded by Russia), Yemen, Syria and Myanmar — impacted by civil wars, the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, the economic crisis-affected Sri Lanka besides several sub-Saharan African countries that have also undergone turmoil.
Chart 1 shows the year in which the census was last conducted in 233 countries.
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Among the ten most populous countries, India and Nigeria are the only two yet to conduct a census. China, the U.S. and Indonesia were able to conduct their latest census round in 2020. Pakistan, ranked fifth, conducted its census in March 2023.
Among BRICS nations (originally defined), only India has not conducted the census with others having done so during or after the pandemic — Brazil (August 2022), China (November 2020), South Africa (February 2022), Russia (October 2021). Among neighbours, Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan and Bangladesh have conducted censuses.
An excerpt from The Office of Registrar General and Census Commissioner, published in 2011, emphasises the need for a census. “… India is a welfare State. All these (welfare schemes) require information at the grassroots level… (Census) is the only source of primary data at village, town and ward level…”.
Table 2 lists a selection of surveys that need census data to determine their samples and some schemes that require updated population figures to determine the number of beneficiaries.
For instance, the consumption survey 2022-23, which collects data on the consumption of goods and services to understand expenditure patterns and standard of living, used the 2011 census for sampling. The National Family Health Survey 2019-21, which highlights districts where health services are inadequate, also depended upon the 2011 figures. Schemes such as the National Food Security Act, which identifies beneficiaries, who are entitled to receive subsidised food grains, are still being implemented using 2011 figures. Calculations by economists Jean Drèze, Reetika Khera and Meghana Mungikar estimate that at least 100 million people have been excluded from the scheme as coverage is still based on the 2011 census.
Even a relatively smaller scheme such as Eklavya Model Residential School (EMRS), which aims to provide quality education for ST children, will miss out on many areas. In 2022, every block with more than 50% of the ST population was targeted to have an EMRS school. As this calculation was done based on 2011, many blocks that fit the criteria in 2022 may have missed out. Similarly, blocks which fit the criteria earlier but did not in 2022, will get an EMRS school which they may not need now.
Source:Statistics division of United Nations, respective survey reports, CAG audit report and NFSA website
Also read:Time for a Census, come what may
