Tank: Is U.K. election a signal of what’s coming in Canada?

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During my vacation in Great Britain last month, the parallels between that country and Canada proved impossible to ignore.

In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a surprise election for July 4 with his unpopular Conservative Party trailing the opposition Labour Party by more than 20 points in opinion polls.

The issues debated during the U.K. election while I was visiting will sound familiar to Canadians, who are also governed by an unpopular regime led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

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Among the most prominent issues dominating the U.K. election were the cost-of-living crisis, the housing shortage and immigration. It’s easy to imagine that an election in Canada would be dominated by the same concerns.

Going in, the election was widely seen as Labour’s to lose and the campaign seemed to change little, other than some blunders, such as the allegation that senior Conservative politicians and officials had placed wagers on the election date.

But I was struck by how little indication there was to suggest that an election was happening, including a nearly complete absence of signs. I saw more Green Party signs than any other, and that was just a handful.

I jokingly told a mate that I wanted to place a bet on the Greens to win, based on the signs.

The election dominated news coverage, but it seemed to be a largely foregone conclusion that Labour would win, and win big. The Conservatives focused more on preventing a Labour supermajority than on actually winning.

Labour faced criticism for its so-called “Ming vase” approach, intended to avoid any controversy that might threaten its expected victory — to the extent that serious policy debate suffered.

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Labour’s plans for economic growth endured scrutiny for the apparent need for a closer relationship with the European Union from which the U.K. separated after its 2016 Brexit vote.

The sticking point there is the absence of any will from the EU to grant the U.K. favourable status and Labour’s rejection of rejoining the trading bloc.

But people are grumpy enough due to a higher cost of living to eject the existing government whether the opposition’s plans make sense or not.

I observed with shock that gas prices in Britain were similar to those in Canada — before my jet-lagged brain kicked in and I realized that the cost was listed in British pounds and that meant the price was nearly double the price in Canada. I’ll remember that the next time I grumble at the gas station.

I wondered whether a similar fate awaits Canada in a year (or sooner) during the next federal election, with the Conservatives having established a lead in the polls that seems insurmountable.

Might Canada, too, endure an election campaign bereft of real debate as the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre adopt a similar Ming vase strategy to avoid any statement that might affect support?

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One key difference between the two countries is that the right-leaning governing Conservatives in the U.K. had fallen out of favour, while in Canada it’s the left-leaning Trudeau Liberals.

The global post-pandemic dissatisfaction with incumbent governments appears to defy traditional political ideology.

While Britain struggles with the same challenges as Canada, it should suggest that national governments have played a minimal role in creating these global issues and can similarly do little to solve them.

But voters eager to blame someone for their struggles seem more likely to simply punish the existing regimes than sift through the complex proposed solutions and consider them on their merit.

Poilievre has distilled his message into the simple “Axe the tax” to signal his intention to abandon the Liberals’ carbon tax, even though there’s no indication that would significantly lower the cost of living.

Britain lacks a carbon tax and is suffering through the same affordability crisis.

But it sure appears to be a better time to be in opposition than to be calling the shots.

Phil Tank is the digital opinion editor at the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.

ptank@postmedia.com

twitter.com/thinktankSK

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