MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki on Wednesday said Democrats face significant obstacles to maintaining control of the Senate.
The Senate is presently composed of 47 Democrats, 49 Republicans and four independents; however, since some independents align themselves with the Democratic caucus and Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the president of the Senate, the party controls the chamber. Kornacki on “Chris Jansing Reports” explained how the map is unfavorable to Democrats in 2024 because of the seats that are open and former President Donald Trump polling ahead of President Joe Biden. (RELATED: EXCLUSIVE: Chuck Grassley Officially Endorses Trump For President)
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‘Ominous Sign’: MSNBC Data Guru Breaks Down ‘Problem’ For Dems In Senate Races pic.twitter.com/gwmfNNgARb
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“The problem for them, though, is the map here,” Kornacki said. “These are the seats that are up for the Senate this year. You see the Democratic seats in blue, the Republican seats in red. And I think the first thing to ask here, just looking at this, is from the Democratic standpoint, are there some obvious states here where they could build on that 51? Are any of the Republican-held seats up this year in blue states? Well, take a look at where you see the red. There aren’t any blue states there. Those are all states that voted for Donald Trump back in 2020. So there’s no obvious opportunity for the Democrats to play offense. It would be an upset if they picked off a Republican seat.”
“Meanwhile, flip that question around, though, are there any blue seats, Democratic-held seats in red states? And the answer is yes,” he continued. “There, in fact, are three of them. Democrats have a seat in West Virginia, Ohio, Montana, all three of those Democratic-held Senate seats are up this year, all three of those states voted for Donald Trump in 2020, by 40 points in West Virginia, more than 20 in Montana and eight in Ohio. So, from the Democratic standpoint, if they’re not picking off any new Republican seats, here’s the reality: They’ve got to protect all three of those seats to stay at 51 if Donald Trump becomes president.”
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said recently that Biden’s reelection chances are currently dismal as he has polled poorly against Trump in additional must-win states following their June debate.
“If Biden is reelected, Democrats could afford to lose one of those three seats in Republican states. And again, West Virginia here, most folks in both parties are already saying is essentially a Republican pickup,” Kornacki said. “So you know, if the Democrats win the presidential race, they could lose West Virginia and then nothing else. And then there’s a second layer here I’ll just take you through quickly. There are a bunch of battleground states, you see five of them here. These are all battlegrounds in the presidential election. All five of these are currently Democratic-held seats.”
Independent Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia was elected as a Democrat but departed the party and announced he is not seeking reelection in November. West Virginia’s Republican Gov. Jim Justice is running for Manchin’s seat and is favored to win.
Democratic Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown may struggle to beat Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno, particularly if Trump wins the presidential election, former CNN political analyst Chris Cillizza said in June. Cillizza also said Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester “has his hardest race ever” against businessman Tim Sheehy.
Democratic Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen’s seat is now a “Toss Up” for 2024 as she faces army veteran Sam Brown, according to the Cook Political Report.
Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania faces a challenge from businessman Dave McCormick, with the state being a pivotal battleground in the presidential election as well.
And Republicans will have a chance of picking up the Senate seat in Michigan currently held by Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers and current Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin are favored to win their respective party’s nominations in August’s statewide primary.
“Here’s recent polling in the last month or two in there and you do see the Democrats leading in the recent polling in all five of those battleground seats,” he added. “That is good news for Democrats, but here’s the ominous sign for them. Polling in those same states shows Donald Trump ahead in four of them and tied in a fifth. So, for Democrats, they need to kind of defy political gravity, if Trump continues to lead these states, to hang onto these Senate seats. If the presidential race and the Senate races start to sync up in polling, if these go from blue to red, that’s when Democrats are potentially looking at very big losses.”
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