Australia has been tipped to produce its best Olympic performance in 24 years this month, with a virtual medal tally predicting 15 golds in Paris.
Gracenote, a data company that analyses the form of athletes and teams heading into the Olympics, calculated that Australia would return home next month with 54 medals, including 23 silver and 16 bronze.
Taking into account results and statistics from competitions since the previous Olympics in Tokyo, Gracenote’s virtual medal tally has Australia finishing fifth overall behind the United States, China, Great Britain and hosts France.
Before the previous Olympics, Gracenote correctly predicted the top ten nations for the Tokyo medals table, but not in perfect order.
If the predictions prove accurate, Australia will enjoy its most successful Olympic campaign since the 2000 Games in Sydney, when an athlete automatically qualified for every sport.
The most gold medals Australia has won at an Olympics is 17, achieved at Athens 2004 and Tokyo 2020, while the nation’s best overall medal tally remains 58 at Sydney.
PREDICTED PARIS 2024 MEDAL HAUL
United States — 112 (39 gold)
China — 86 (34 gold)
Great Britain — 63 (17 gold)
France — 60 (27 gold)
Australia — 54 (15 gold)
Japan — 47 (13 gold)
Italy — 46 (11 gold)
Germany — 35 (11 gold)
Netherlands — 34 (16 gold)
Republic of Korea — 26 (nine gold)
Canada — 21 (seven gold)
Hungary — 20 (seven gold)
* According to Gracenote data
Unsurprisingly, Gracenote expects ten of Australia’s 15 gold medals to come in the pool, eight of which are from women’s events.
Ariarne Titmus has been tipped to win the 200m and 400m freestyle events, while Kaylee McKeown is expected to win gold in the 100m and 200m backstroke.
The Dolphins are also favourites for three women’s relay events, with Zac Stubblety-Cook and Cameron McEvoy tipped to win the men’s 200m breaststroke and men’s 50m freestyle events respectively.
Elsewhere, canoe slalom champion Jessica Fox is predicted to add to her Olympic medal haul in the women’s C1 and K1 events, while sailor Matthew Wearn has a strong chance of defending his title in the men’s dingy.
Cyclist Grace Brown is tipped to win gold in the women’s individual time trial, while Logan Martin is predicted to defend his title in the men’s freestyle BMX park event.
AUSTRALIA’S FORECAST GOLD MEDALLISTS AT PARIS 2024
Logan Martin — Freestyle BMX, men’s park
Jessica Fox — Canoe slalom, women’s C1
Jessica Fox — Canoe slalom, women’s K1
Grace Brown — Road cycling, women’s individual time trial
Matthew Wearn — Sailing, men’s ILCA 7
Kaylee McKeown — Women’s 100m backstroke
Kaylee McKeown — Women’s 200m backstroke
Mollie O’Callaghan — Women’s 100m freestyle
Zac Stubblety-Cook — Men’s 200m breaststroke
Ariarne Titmus — Women’s 200m freestyle
Ariarne Titmus — Women’s 400m freestyle
Cameron McEvoy — Men’s 50m freestyle
Women’s 4 x 100m freestyle relay
Women’s 4 x 100m medley relay
Women’s 4 x 200m freestyle relay
* According to Gracenote data
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Australia could better Gracenote’s predicted medal tally should other athletes surpass expectations.
The Kookaburras and women’s rugby sevens both have strong gold medal chances, while Australia’s traditionally has been successful in the canoe sprint and rowing events.
Teenagers Arisa Trew and Chloe Covell are both in scintillating form in the skateboarding disciplines, while Keegan Palmer will be hoping to defend his Tokyo gold medal.
Australia’s track cycling team is vying for gold, most notably the men’s team sprint and women’s madison, while women’s BMX cyclist Saya Sakakibara has been dominant at this season’s World Cup events.
In athletics, Nicola Olyslagers and Nina Kennedy will be fighting for medals in the women’s high jump and pole vault respectively, while Jemima Montag could finish on the podium in the 20km walk.
Olympic events get underway on Wednesday evening AEST before the Opening Ceremony in Paris on Saturday morning.
