Our Frank Schwab counts down his NFL power rankings, grades each team’s offseason, solicits fantasy football advice and previews what the 2024 season might have in store for each team.
We’ll reach our No. 1 team on July 31, one day before the Hall of Fame Game kicks off the preseason when the Chicago Bears face the Houston Texans.
You can dive deeper with Schwab by clicking on the team’s name.
The Panthers hired a new head coach, Dave Canales, coming off a very good season as Tampa Bay‘s offensive coordinator. He did wonders for Baker Mayfield‘s career, which had to catch the Panthers’ interest. Carolina spent $153 million on guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, traded for receiver Diontae Johnson and drafted receiver Xavier Legette, running back Jonathon Brooks and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders. Those were the first steps in helping QB Bryce Young reach his potential.
It’s not like the dark cloud is gone. Team owner David Tepper is still around, bothering bar owners who take a shot at him, ready to make the Panthers U-turn all their plans when he gets impatient with losing again. Young has a long way to go and he might never come close to Stroud as a player or to paying off what the Panthers gave up in that trade. The roster still has massive holes on both sides of the ball.
The Patriots drafted North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, who along with head coach Jerod Mayo will lead the Patriots into a brand new era. The fact that multiple teams, including the Giants and Vikings, were very excited to trade up for that third overall pick should tell the Patriots that staying put and drafting Maye was the right thing to do. The Patriots need to restock the roster, but you don’t turn down a potential franchise quarterback. New England‘s rebuild gets a lot easier if Maye is a hit.
Maye had plenty of buzz. He was the QB1 in this draft class for Yahoo Sports’ Nate Tice. He has the entire package of skills to succeed, as long as his aggressive nature doesn’t become a big problem with turnovers. One issue is the Patriots still didn’t do much to improve the offense around him. They tried to get free-agent receiver Calvin Ridley, and while team owner Robert Kraft said Ridley chose the Tennessee Titans because his girlfriend wanted to be in the South, Kraft’s comment that “Part of it might be the quarterback situation as well” was probably more accurate. The Patriots aren’t a destination yet. That will take time. The first step has to be Maye becoming the type of QB other players want to join forces with.
Rookie Bo Nix isn’t guaranteed to start Week 1, but he’ll start soon. The problem is there isn’t much around him. Patrick Surtain II is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, the offensive line isn’t terrible, receiver Courtland Sutton scored 10 touchdowns last season and … well, that’s about it. It’s not a team that is equipped to win soon, even if the QB6 in this draft class is a hit right away. That’s what happens when you pay a heavy price for Russell Wilson and Sean Payton in trades. The Broncos somehow went 8-9 last season because Payton is still an excellent head coach but it’s going to be a challenge this season, next season and maybe 2026 as well.
None of this should have been a surprise. When Payton came aboard, everyone knew that a total teardown as the team suffered through the consequences of cutting Wilson was likely. One of these days, there will be something for Broncos fans to cheer about other than dusty memories of Peyton Manning and that 2015 team.
Grabbing a coach who was in demand, a GM everyone wanted and a quarterback who practically everyone ranked second in the draft class is a good offseason. That’s the type of nucleus that can turn around a franchise very fast.
The problem with using the Texans as an example of a quick turnaround is they hit an unprecedented amount of green lights. They hired a great head coach in DeMeco Ryans who probably would not have looked their way if he was drafted by another team way back when. They didn’t have the first pick of the draft but C.J. Stroud fell to them at No. 2 and ended up being perhaps the greatest rookie quarterback in NFL history. Many young players broke out at the same time. It’s hard to replicate all of that.
It’s hard to move on from quarterbacks, but the Giants could have done so with Daniel Jones without any complaint if they didn’t make the playoffs two seasons ago. That playoff appearance and win probably cost them $92 million in guaranteed money to Jones.
It might have also caused them to put off an honest assessment of the roster and how close they were to being contenders. With a clearer head they might not have made moves like trading a third-round draft pick, 100th overall, to the Las Vegas Raiders for 30-year-old tight end Darren Waller. He had 552 yards, one touchdown and then retired this offseason. When regression hit a little too hard and the Giants struggled to a 6-11 season, all of 2023 looked like a massive waste.
Even though former head coach Mike Vrabel did some good things in Tennessee, the new era won’t have much resemblance to the old one.
The Titans hired Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan to replace Vrabel. Callahan didn’t call plays for the Bengals but has a good reputation as a sharp offensive mind. With former NFL linebacker Vrabel in charge the Titans relied on defense, running the ball with Derrick Henry and a low volume play-action passing game. Callahan’s Titans will be way more pass-heavy, with much of it coming out of the shotgun formation.
The quarterback position won’t be entirely new because Titans fans got a look at Will Levis late last season. There were high points, such a four-touchdown masterpiece in his debut against the Atlanta Falcons and a startling comeback against the Miami Dolphins. There were also games in which Levis looked like the wild, undisciplined player that got a lot of hype before the NFL Draft but fell to the second round. The ups and downs weren’t anything unusual for a rookie, but Levis comes into the season having to prove himself to a new coaching staff.
The best the Raiders can do this season is make sure whoever emerges as the long-term quarterback is put in a good situation when he arrives. Tight end Brock Bowers should be a foundational piece. Davante Adams is still in his prime and in Las Vegas, though the Raiders could trade their superstar receiver at some point. The defensive line should be very good with $110 million free-agent addition Christian Wilkins from the Miami Dolphins. And head coach Antonio Pierce could be a great fit for years.
The Raiders remain in a weird place. They’re transitioning to a new era with momentum, but a massive part of the rebuilding effort is still unsettled. They spent on Wilkins like they’re a contender but that might not happen for a while. If nothing else, at least Raiders fans aren’t suffering through the Josh McDaniels era anymore.
The Cardinals were the rare four-win team with some great wins. They beat the Dallas Cowboys early in the season. They won at the Steelers and Eagles, a couple of road victories against playoff teams. Arizona had four wins overall but more quality wins than some teams in the playoffs. The Cardinals might have been better but Kyler Murray missed the first half of the season as he recovered from a torn ACL. The season was far from a success but the Cardinals should have felt confident about some of the things they saw in Gannon’s first season.
The best news might end up being that none of those wins cost the Cardinals a shot at Marvin Harrison Jr. The Cardinals fell to the fourth overall pick, but they got lucky the first three teams in the draft all needed a quarterback. That allowed the Cardinals, who are already paying Murray big money, to pick arguably the best player in the draft regardless of position. Harrison was a dominant force at Ohio State and one of the best college receivers in many years. He’s the rare receiver who could end up defining a franchise for a decade.
The way for the Saints to become something more than average is likely through Derek Carr. He wasn’t awful last season. In true Saints fashion, he finished 19th of 38 qualified quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’ grades, right in the middle. Average generally won’t cut it for a $150 million quarterback in a new city. Perhaps the change in offensive coordinators from Pete Carmichael, who had been the Saints’ coordinator since 2009, to Klint Kubiak will give new life to the offense. That better happen, because the Saints have started the restructuring game with Carr’s contract. They saved $23 million on the cap in a restructure with Carr to solve a big salary cap problem. That pushed money into the future and might make it tougher to cut Carr if he doesn’t play well this season.
Something needs to happen. It has seemed for a while like the Saints need to tear things down but can’t bring themselves to do it. The hope that it will all suddenly click and they’ll take a big step is belied by the fact that the Saints had the oldest roster in the NFL last season (via ESPN’s Bill Barnwell). What the Saints have been the past couple seasons is probably what they’ll be again this season. They’re unlikely to be good enough to be a contender and probably won’t be bad enough to be forced into a big change. They’re just stuck.
At every stop, Jim Harbaugh has won. He had a 29-6 record at the University of San Diego, took a Stanford program that was 1-11 before he was hired and ended up going 12-1 with an Orange Bowl win in 2010, led the San Francisco 49ers to a seven-win improvement his first season there and nearly won a Super Bowl the next season, then eventually turned Michigan into a 15-0 national champion. Four head coaching stops, and four success stories.
The Chargers are hoping to get relevance and wins, in whatever order. Harbaugh should bring both.
The roster starts with quarterback Justin Herbert, an exciting talent who hasn’t helped the Chargers to much team success. Because of salary cap issues, the Chargers had to part ways with top receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Running back Austin Ekeler left in free agency. They were able to retain Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack when the veteran pass rushers took pay cuts, but the roster probably isn’t as good as it was last season when the Chargers went 5-12.
It had to be scary for the Minnesota Vikings to break up with Kirk Cousins.
There was comfort in having Cousins. Minnesota always knew that they’d have solid, steady quarterback play. That was reassuring even if the Vikings had to realize that reaching a Super Bowl with Cousins was never going to happen. They had more losing seasons (three) in the six-year Cousins era than playoff appearances (two). That wasn’t all Cousins’ fault, and even if he wasn’t taking the Vikings where they wanted to go, he was safe. That’s why Minnesota kept reworking his contract.
While those weeks before the NFL Draft must have been nervous for the Vikings, it all turned out OK. Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy was a player who seemed to go way up and down in mock drafts, but he eventually fell to No. 10 and the Vikings made a low-cost move to trade up one spot to draft him. And while we have no idea if McCarthy will ever be as good as Cousins, you’d have to say the Vikings are in a better place now.
Pete Carroll defined the Seahawks for more than a decade. It will be jarring to see someone else leading them.
Mike Macdonald will have a hard time replacing Carroll, but he was an exciting hire. He had two very good seasons running the Baltimore Ravens‘ defense and players rave about his football mind. At age 36, Macdonald has a youthful energy (Carroll is 72, though energy was never a problem for him). Carroll was great, but perhaps it was just time for a change. Macdonald seems like a worthy successor.
If Macdonald gets the Seahawks back to the playoffs in his first season, it’s probably because Geno Smith played more like he did in 2022 than last season. Smith was a revelation in 2022, a 32-year-old journeyman without much NFL success who led the league in completion percentage and threw for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns. He got a three-year, $75 million contract from Seattle and then came back to earth a bit in 2023. The Seahawks brought him back for another season but he’ll have to play much better to last into 2025.
Baker Mayfield went from that one-year deal last year — to put it in perspective, Sam Darnold got a one-year, $10 million contract this offseason and Jacoby Brissett signed for $8 million over one year — to a three-year, $100 million contract with $50 million guaranteed.
Mayfield and the Buccaneers had a pretty good season, and it was out of nowhere.
The Buccaneers were expected to struggle as they transitioned from the Brady era and had Brady’s dead cap hit to contend with, but they went 9-8, won the NFC South and then beat the Philadelphia Eagles 32-9 in the wild-card round. Mayfield threw for 4,044 yards and 30 touchdowns. He probably deserved more votes for the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award that went to Joe Flacco, but nobody seems to know the criteria for that award. It was all a fun surprise for the Buccaneers, who came closer to eliminating the Detroit Lions from the playoffs than you remember. The Buccaneers and Lions were tied going into the fourth quarter of a divisional round game before Detroit pulled away. That speaks to how well Tampa Bay was playing by the end of last season.
It’s just hard to know how much of that is repeatable. And the Buccaneers can’t depend on the NFC South being terrible forever.
If you criticize Trevor Lawrence, prepare to argue your case. There are many Lawrence guardians on social media who will perk up when the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback’s up-and-down NFL journey is mentioned.
But has Lawrence performed like a $55 million-per-year quarterback to this point? Even his biggest defenders would have to pause before answering.
Had Lawrence not suffered a high ankle sprain against the Bengals, perhaps the Jaguars wouldn’t have lost five of their last six games. Maybe they would have won the AFC South and some of the hype for C.J. Stroud would be redirected to Lawrence, who helped Jacksonville to the 2022 AFC South title. There might not have been such sticker shock on that contract extension.
There are ways to talk yourself into Lawrence being everything he was expected to be coming out of Clemson. The Jaguars seem convinced. Now’s the time for Lawrence to show he’s worth the money.
All first-round picks in the NFL Draft are somewhat memorable. Some make you sit up in your chair a bit, but only a few are guaranteed to be talked about for years.
The moment the Atlanta Falcons selected quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick of the NFL Draft, it became a talking point for the next decade or more. Good or bad.
No team’s offseason was discussed more than the Falcons. They started it by changing coaches, firing the overwhelmed Arthur Smith and giving Raheem Morris a second chance. Then they made one of the rare big quarterback additions in free agency, signing Kirk Cousins to a $180 million deal. That led to weeks of excitement, reimagining the Falcons with a staff that understood it needs to use its best players on offense, with a quarterback that can get them the ball. If the offseason would have ended there, it would have been nothing but good vibes for the Falcons.
To be fair, the Penix pick could end up a win. Think about how everyone questioned the Green Bay Packers‘ Jordan Love pick for three years. Do you think the Packers look smart now? Of course. But the Penix pick was also different than the Packers picking Love, or most “quarterback in waiting” first-round picks we’ve seen over the years.
Hey, at least the Falcons gave us something to talk about this offseason.
Quarterback Anthony Richardson played 173 snaps as a rookie for the Indianapolis Colts, a little more than 15% of their offensive plays last season.
And that was enough to get the Colts excited for the future. Maybe Richardson will get exposed playing a full season — playing more than four games without suffering a major injury will be positive news in itself — but what he did in his short time on the field was electrifying. Richardson had 577 yards passing, three touchdowns, one interception, 136 rushing yards and four touchdowns in what amounts to about two and a half games worth of action. Richardson was knocked out early in three of his four games due to injury, and that’s a big concern, but his entire package of skills was on full display as a rookie.
It’s funny though. The reason Richardson was a divisive prospect was he had just 13 starts in college, a remarkably low number for a top-five pick. Relatively speaking, there wasn’t enough tape to know what Richardson really was as a player. But the highlights and physical skills were so marvelous, it was easy to dream about his amazing ceiling. And now that’s Richardson’s NFL narrative too.
It’s not outrageous to wonder if we’ll look back at the Bears-Panthers trade, which helped Chicago land the No. 1 overall pick and Caleb Williams, in a few years and compare it to the Herschel Walker trade, which is famous for helping to start the Cowboys’ dynasty.
Unlike some other quarterbacks who go No. 1 overall, Williams lands in a good situation. The Bears finished last season on the upswing. They stole D.J. Moore in that Panthers trade, then traded for Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze ninth overall. The Bears went from one of the worst receiver rooms in the NFL to potentially the best in two offseasons. The line, due in part to drafting 2023 top-10 pick Darnell Wright, is improving though there is still some work to do. The running game will be helped by free agent addition D’Andre Swift. This isn’t David Carr getting sacked 76 times as a rookie or Bryce Young flailing around on a terrible 2023 Panthers team. Williams might not thrive as a rookie because playing quarterback in the NFL is really hard, but he’s not set up to fail like other rookie QBs.
It’s easy to take that finish last season for the Bears and dream about how much better it will be with Williams, Allen, Odunze, Swift and others. Maybe the defense won’t match the offense, Matt Eberflus isn’t as good as he was in the second half last season, Williams isn’t a huge hit right away or anything else that can derail a season for a team that lost 10 games a year ago. But there is a different energy about the Bears, particularly at quarterback, than there has been in a long time.
Mike Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons simply won’t die.
Being in the middle means there are no easy solutions at quarterback. They tried Kenny Pickett, the 20th overall draft pick in a weak 2022 quarterback class, and he is gone two years later. Their solutions this offseason were creative — they signed Russell Wilson to a one-year, $1.2 million deal as the Denver Broncos pick up the other $37.8 million of his salary, and Pittsburgh also traded a sixth-round pick for Justin Fields — but it’s hard to buy either quarterback as a permanent solution. Steelers fans want more than sneaking into the playoffs and then getting blown out, as they’ve done two of the past three seasons. It’s hard to see a higher ceiling than that with the current roster.
The Steelers will look familiar this season, even with the change at quarterback. Tomlin will get the most out of his team. The defense, led by T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, should be excellent again. The offense, suddenly short on receivers after trading Diontae Johnson, will run it a lot with hopefully average quarterback play from Wilson or perhaps Fields at some point. The Steelers will find ways to win close games and be in the playoff hunt into December. That’s not bad, but it’s not exciting anymore either.
Tomlin has some quirky catchphrases, and one that has endured is “The standard is the standard.” After multiple seasons of being nowhere near Super Bowl contention and a lot of long-term questions at quarterback, Steelers fans have to be wondering what the standard is anymore.
There’s a new challenge for a seemingly recharged Sean McVay, and it’s replacing one of the greatest players in NFL history. Not many defensive players define a championship era for a franchise, but defensive tackle Aaron Donald was special. He has an argument as the best defensive player in NFL history. He retired after 10 NFL seasons. It’s impossible to replace him, but it’s probably best to not completely discount the Rams again.
Like McVay, Matthew Stafford looks rejuvenated coming off an excellent season at age 35. Kyren Williams scored 12 touchdowns as a true workhorse back, and rookie running back Blake Corum could mix in this season and be productive. Puka Nacua had an unbelievable 105 catches for 1,486 yards, both of which are NFL rookie records, then followed that up with a rookie playoff record 181 yards in the Rams’ loss to the Detroit Lions. Cooper Kupp dealt with injuries but is still capable of big games. A young defense was better than expected, though coordinator Raheem Morris left to be the Atlanta Falcons’ new head coach. The Rams promoted linebackers coach Chris Shula to defensive coordinator, a job Shula has never held in the NFL.
The Rams made the playoffs and lost a close 24-23 wild-card game at the Lions, who are one of the favorites to win this season’s Super Bowl. That was a disappointing finish, but it didn’t stop McVay’s exuberance. A little more than a year ago, it seemed like a good bet that McVay was going to step away. The Rams don’t need to worry about their coach anymore. That makes the future plenty bright, even with Donald calling it a career.
Here’s how history will look back at the 2023 season of the Joe Burrow era with the Cincinnati Bengals: Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury, and that was the only reason the Bengals missed the playoffs and a shot at a long-awaited Super Bowl.
It won’t be entirely true. Losing Burrow, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, obviously didn’t help. But the Bengals had other issues.
Everything might be back to normal if Burrow is healthy. Burrow says he feels good, though we can’t know for sure until the games start. Burrow said he researched his injury (specifically it’s a tear in the scapholunate ligament on his right wrist) and couldn’t find another quarterback that had it. That’s a bit scary. But if Burrow plays anywhere near his normal level, Cincinnati should feel like it can get back to the levels of 2021 and 2022, when it lost very close games in the Super Bowl and AFC championship. Ja’Marr Chase is one of the best players in football. Tee Higgins is still around, even if he might not be that happy to be playing on a one-year deal. There were improvements to the offensive line and some additions to the defense, though some losses as well. And Burrow has an MVP ceiling.
We’ll just have to see if the Bengals are still among the NFL’s elite. They were for two seasons. A very questionable holding penalty on a third-and-goal late in Super Bowl LVI might be the reason Burrow doesn’t have a ring already. Last season knocked the Bengals back a bit, but perhaps that was an outlier. Burrow’s health is one part of the equation. So is fixing whatever was amiss with Cincinnati last season.
In some ways, that fun and creative offense is what we should remember about the 2023 Dolphins. No, they weren’t the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams as you might have heard at times last year, but they were exciting. And good. They were second in the NFL in points and first in yardage. Mike McDaniel’s team always seemed to have a big play to dial up when they wanted it.
And yet, it felt empty at the end. There was no AFC East title, which Miami blew down the stretch. There wasn’t a playoff win either. The Dolphins lost 26-7 in freezer-like conditions to the Kansas City Chiefs. Miami is still looking for its first playoff win since 2000 and its first division title since 2008. Even the 11 regular season wins feel a little light since only one came against a winning team.
This season will say a lot about whether the Dolphins are going to stick as a playoff team and possibly a contender for a while. Tua Tagovailoa’s contract situation is another obstacle the Dolphins will have to manage, as he’ll either get a deal that’s somewhere around the $50 million-a-year range or Miami will be looking for a new quarterback. Miami was already juggling its salary cap this offseason, before getting to Tagovailoa’s future. Everything has been on an upward turn since McDaniel was hired. The Dolphins hope that last season’s collapse wasn’t the start of a new trajectory.
The Philadelphia Eagles are a fascinating study in how fast things can turn sour in the NFL. From the start of the 2022 season through Week 12 last season, the Eagles were 26-5 including playoffs. They were considered a shining example of supreme roster building. Then, the Eagles suddenly became one of the worst teams in the NFL. They lost six of their last seven, including a first-round playoff loss. Less than two months after that 10-1 start, and less than a year after barely losing a Super Bowl, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni almost was fired.
The immediate future will include Sirianni, but it’s awkward now. A media conference to announce his return was delayed as he met with GM Howie Roseman, and after that meeting reporters were told that a new offensive coordinator would oversee that unit, which Sirianni had done. Sirianni will be more of a CEO head coach going forward. Sirianni said it was his idea to give up control of the offense to new coordinator Kellen Moore, including game planning.
Moore takes over the offense. Vic Fangio is the new defensive coordinator. The Eagles missed 2022 coordinators Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon last season, and a big change at both spots was inevitable after the collapse. Having two big names in the coordinator positions turns the heat up on Sirianni another notch.
The Eagles could win a Super Bowl and it wouldn’t be a shock. They have the talent for it. It also wouldn’t be too surprising to see Sirianni fired by Halloween if the Eagles play like they did last December and January. Any outcome seems possible for the 2024 Eagles, good or bad. Life comes at you fast, especially in the NFL.
The Jets put all their chips in the middle of the table for Aaron Rodgers, a quarterback who will be 41 years old in December and is coming off a major injury, and they’re down to one last shot to get something special out of their Rodgers investment.
The Jets are exceptionally talented around Rodgers. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson could battle for NFL Offensive Player of the Year, like they battled for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year two seasons ago. The Jets added receivers Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley. They improved the offensive line through free agency, a trade and the draft. The defense was again elite, and the main reason the team was competitive most of the season. It could be the NFL’s best defense this year. The special teams were good last season too.
If the Jets have another losing season, regardless of bad injury luck or any other factors, they’ll almost surely sweep out the coach, general manager, quarterback, quarterback’s cronies and many others. But also, the Jets realize a Super Bowl is well within their realistic outcomes.
After a season that was lost four plays into it, it’s now or never for the Jets. And there’s no ambiguity over what’s on the line.
If we saw Jordan Love’s true level over the last half of the season, the Packers are set up remarkably well. The Packers were the youngest team in the NFL last season. They had a 6-2 finish to the regular season, won a playoff game at Dallas and led at San Francisco until the 49ers scored a touchdown with 1:07 remaining. Then the Packers followed that up with a solid offseason.
Green Bay wasn’t expected to be very good last season after trading Aaron Rodgers. Not many teams seamlessly move on from a Hall of Fame quarterback. But the first-round pick of Love back in 2020, which was criticized for years as he sat behind Rodgers, is looking pretty good now. The rest of the roster is in really good shape, thanks to some productive drafts. Matt LaFleur, oddly dismissed for years because he happened to coach Rodgers, is getting a little more credit now for his 56-27 career record. The Packers are already onto a new era. It seems like their rebuild took about a half of a season.
C.J. Stroud looked like a 10-year veteran quarterback — and an elite one — last season. While it’s nearly impossible for a rookie QB to get enough votes to win MVP, Stroud was playing well enough that he deserved to be in that conversation. He took the Texans, a laughingstock for the few seasons before Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans arrived, to a division title and a playoff win.
The Texans’ startling revival was about more than just one player. But there’s no doubt Stroud was the biggest key.
Houston’s story gives hope for every other down-and-out franchise, but it won’t be easy to replicate. Stroud had perhaps the best rookie season for any quarterback in NFL history, and it wouldn’t have happened in Houston if Stroud went first overall in the draft instead of falling to No. 2. Stroud falling one spot was a franchise-changing break. DeMeco Ryans, a fortunate hire because he had fond memories of his playing days in Houston, looks like another home run. The Texans overpaid to move up and draft Will Anderson Jr. last year, but he made an immediate impact with seven sacks. Other young players like receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. had breakthrough seasons.
It was a magical season, but it also seems like there’s much more to come over the next few years. If the Texans’ new quarterback’s precocious rookie season was a sign, Houston is going to be a factor for a while.
When the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson, they tossed aside moral dilemmas because they were desperate to add a quarterback who was one of the NFL’s best when he was with the Texans. Cleveland invited a ton of criticism and hasn’t even gotten the benefit of having a good quarterback. Watson has been decidedly below average with the Browns. It had been a long time since Watson looked like the quarterback he was at Clemson and Houston. But a great second half in a win at Baltimore was finally it.
If Watson simply plays to the level of Joe Flacco last season, the Browns will be good. They went 11-6 despite 12 starts from Flacco, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, P.J. Walker and Jeff Driskel. When the Browns had a somewhat capable starter (Watson or Flacco), they went 9-2. That’s due to an offensive line that is considered to be top five in the NFL, skill-position talent like Amari Cooper and David Njoku and a spectacular defense that includes NFL Defensive Player of the year Myles Garrett. Cleveland led the NFL in yards allowed and was exceptional against the pass last season, allowing a 74.7 passer rating that ranked second in the NFL. The Browns practically turned all quarterbacks into rookie year Bryce Young.
Cleveland has waited a long time to be a Super Bowl contender. There’s no guarantee Watson can get the Browns there. But everything else is set up. Now it’s on the quarterback to take them to the next level.
It’s tough to win a Super Bowl, especially as Patrick Mahomes hoards them. The Bills have been one of the best teams in the NFL over the last five seasons, posting double-digit wins each year. With an electrifying quarterback like Allen it seemed inevitable that Buffalo would find itself in a Super Bowl. It could still happen, but the pressure is mounting with each missed opportunity. That’s why Josh Allen seemed so forlorn after their playoff loss to the Chiefs.
The vibes didn’t get better when the Bills traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. Logically it made sense. Still, trading a player who made four Pro Bowls in four seasons for Buffalo doesn’t seem to get the Bills closer to that elusive Super Bowl.
Maybe the negativity has been overdone. Realistically the Bills are still a top team even without Diggs, who wasn’t a huge factor after a midseason offensive coordinator change. Buffalo has a strong defense and Allen will make the offense dangerous no matter who he’s throwing to. Buffalo won five games in a row to save its season, then soundly beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in a wild-card playoff game. Had Tyler Bass‘ potential game-tying kick against the Chiefs not gone wide right, perhaps the Bills would have gone on to win and everything would feel different this offseason.
As long as Allen is the Bills’ quarterback, it will be Super Bowl or else every season for Buffalo. Even in what seems like a bit of a transition year following the Diggs trade.
The Cowboys have been one of the NFL’s best teams the past few seasons but you’d never know it. Every playoff loss leads to months of Cowboys fans trying to fire or trade everyone. An offseason of inaction wasn’t great, but it also didn’t tear apart a roster that is a fantastic 36-15 the past three seasons. Dallas is treated like a team coming off three straight 5-12 seasons, not a trio of 12-5 seasons. The annual freakout was a focus of last offseason, this offseason and will be the theme of next offseason if Dallas doesn’t make a deep playoff run.
In fairness, the way the Cowboys’ season ended was disheartening. They were defeated 48-32 by the Green Bay Packers on wild-card weekend and it was worse than the final score. Dallas seems like a great regular season team that won’t get over the hump in the playoffs.
But that door hasn’t closed. Prescott played so well he was in the MVP conversation until the very end of the season. Lamb led the NFL with 135 catches and had 1,735 yards. The running back situation isn’t great, but there’s a reason running backs have been devalued in the NFL. Dallas is a pass-first team anyway. The defense has been stellar the past few seasons and even with coordinator Dan Quinn moving on to be head coach of the Washington Commanders, it should still be one of the NFL’s best groups. It’s hard to win 12 games in the NFL. The Cowboys have done that three seasons in a row. It’s not due to luck.
It wasn’t the offseason Cowboys fans dreamed of when Jones got their hopes up. But the core of a 12-win roster stayed mostly the same. The Cowboys should be pretty good again this regular season. Then we’ll see if the Cowboys can do better in the postseason. If not, we already know what the reaction will be.
The narrative for the Lamar Jackson-era Ravens is being set. Twice they have had the best team in the NFL and didn’t even make the Super Bowl either time.
The Ravens’ problem is that while they are a rock-solid franchise and always seem to reload easily, nothing stays the same in the NFL and they’re not guaranteed to be hosting another AFC championship game anytime soon. The Ravens lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, a key to their success the past two seasons, to the Seattle Seahawks’ head coaching job. There were free agency losses at safety, linebacker and the interior offensive line. That can happen when the quarterback gets a huge second contract. Jackson has a $32.4 million cap hit this year.
The Ravens might not repeat their fantastic 2023 regular season. They’re not a sure bet to repeat as division champions in a tough AFC North. That’s what stings about last season’s playoff loss, and the one in 2019 too. Those opportunities are rare.
They’re probably more likely for a franchise like Baltimore, which has had two losing seasons in John Harbaugh’s 16 years as head coach. It helps to have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. There’s no reason Jackson and the Ravens can’t reach a Super Bowl together. But every missed opportunity, like the one last January, will hurt for a long time.
Nothing is promised. Last season Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers had a great shot to win their first Super Bowl since the end of the 1994 season. They were fantastic in the regular season and got the No. 1 seed. They led the Chiefs 10-0 early in the Super Bowl, had a 19-16 lead in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter and a 22-19 lead in overtime. Patrick Mahomes got them at the end. It happens.
The 49ers bring back most of the roster and that probably includes Brandon Aiyuk, who made a trade request because he’s unhappy with his contract. The assumption is that Aiyuk will play out the final year of his deal because he has little leverage, but that and trade speculation regarding Deebo Samuel this offseason is a reminder that even the best roster has an expiration date.
The fact that the 49ers could practically run it back with the same roster after a Super Bowl appearance is rare. They were able to do that because Brock Purdy’s contract is still one of Mr. Irrelevant. His cap hit this season is a little more than $1 million. That will change soon, assuming the 49ers extend him. For now, it keeps the 49ers’ window wide open.
It will close at some point, and probably soon. It does for most teams that don’t have Mahomes. The 49ers and Shanahan just have to make sure that if they have another opportunity to win it all, it doesn’t pass them by again.
After a painful NFC championship loss, there are two ways the Lions’ story can go from there. Either that’s the one that got away, a blown opportunity lamented forever by beaten-down Lions fans, or just one step on the journey to a Super Bowl and one of the great stories in American sports history (to be very clear, Detroit winning a Super Bowl absolutely would be on that list).
The Lions didn’t sit around and feel sorry for themselves this offseason. Detroit attacked its weaknesses. They got close to the prize and tried to make sure they don’t fall short again.
There’s urgency. Not because of the contracts, though that’s a factor now. It’s because Lions fans have waited forever for this. They got close. The players have listened to Dan Campbell’s challenge and are ready to go for the final step.
There’s a lot of pressure on the Lions this season. Last season was a fun ride but replicating it won’t be good enough. There’s just one more place for Detroit to go. Maybe this is finally the season it happens.
Twice before has an NFL team won three straight championships (the Packers from 1929-31 and again from 1965-1967), but no team has ever won three straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs have a chance this season.
The rest of the NFL has to be kicking itself for giving Kansas City this opportunity. Last season’s Chiefs team was good but far from great. It was a frustrating season that included losses to mediocre teams like the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. But in the playoffs the Chiefs did their thing, winning four games in a row, including a thrilling Super Bowl in overtime. The rest of the NFL had a good shot to scoop up a ring before Patrick Mahomes got another, and they wasted their chance.
The Chiefs should be better this season. First-round draft pick Xavier Worthy and free-agent addition Marquise Brown bolster a receiving room that was a problem at times last season, though a potential suspension for Rashee Rice could detract from that group. The pass catchers are joined by all-time great tight end Travis Kelce, who showed last postseason that he’s still capable of greatness even though he’s about to turn 35 years old. The defense arrived in a big way last season and was a driver for the Chiefs’ bonus Super Bowl championship last season when the offense was off from its norm. Even though cornerback L’Jarius Sneed was traded to the Tennessee Titans this offseason as the Chiefs kept an eye on the salary cap, the defense was mostly young and should be good again. And then there’s Mahomes, who has three Super Bowl rings, three Super Bowl MVPs, another AFC championship, two regular-season MVPs and is already in the discussion for the best quarterback of all time. The Pro Football Hall of Fame is already a foregone conclusion.
There were eight back-to-back Super Bowl champions who failed in their chance to win a third Super Bowl in a row. It’s rare for a team to win two straight Super Bowls and believe they’re even better before the attempt at a third in a row, but the Chiefs should feel that way.
History is on the line for the 2024 Chiefs. We’ll talk about Mahomes, Kelce, Andy Reid and these Chiefs as long as NFL history is discussed, but the conversation would change if they got a third Super Bowl in a row. This Chiefs team would then own a special place in NFL history. And they know it.
