NFL Win Totals: 3 Teams to Consider Betting to Go Under This Season

For bettors interested in the win totals markets for the 2024 season, a smart way to identify teams primed to go under is to seek unstable quarterback situations.

Three teams that fit that bill in 2024 are the Denver Broncos, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Minnesota Vikings.

In 2023, the Raiders and Broncos both went 8-9, while the Vikings (7-10) also had a losing record. While the Raiders finished 2023 strong under then-interim head coach Antonio Pierce, with three wins in their last four to earn Pierce the full-time role, the Broncos went just 2-4 in their last six, and Minnesota lost six of its last seven.

The reason we’re expecting more struggles from these teams in 2024 starts with their options at QB:

• The Raiders are going to start either Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew, depending on who wins what Pierce has called an competition in training camp.
• In Denver, rookie first-rounder Bo Nix, former Jet Zach Wilson or Jarrett Stidham will lead the offense.
• The Vikings will start either Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy.

Denver Broncos 2024 Win Total Odds

Denver Broncos 2024 Betting Outlook

The Raiders will either end up with Minshew, who went 7-6 in 13 starts for the Colts a year ago, or O’Connell, who went 5-5 in 10 starts as a rookie fourth-rounder last year, as their starter.

In Minnesota, Sam Darnold is now with his fourth team since the Jets drafted him with the No. 3 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. But Darnold had his moments as a Panther late in 2022 and looked solid in the few reps he got in relief of Brock Purdy in San Francisco a year ago.

Denver, on the other hand, could be relying on Zach Wilson, who threw 25 interceptions and just 23 TDs over 33 starts in three seasons as a Jet. Whether Wilson, Stidham (who has started four games in four seasons as a Patriot, Raider and Bronco) or Nix is under center, the Broncos offense will likely struggle again following two disappointing seasons with Russell Wilson at the helm.

Denver has a young stud at corner in Patrick Surtain II, a two-time Pro Bowler who is entering his fourth season in the league, but little else of note on its defense. The unit was among the worst in the NFL in 2023 (27th in points allowed), and lost Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons to free agency this offseason.

Between the dire situation at QB and a defense that would need to take a massive step forward to make this team a threat, the Broncos are outstanding value to go under, especially at Under 5.5 (+105) at DraftKings.

Las Vegas Raiders 2024 Win Total Odds

Las Vegas Raiders 2024 Betting Outlook

Few would argue that either O’Connell or Minshew are franchise QB material, but they’ve been serviceable throughout their careers.

Raiders apologists could argue that as long as Vegas has stability at QB, a solid defense anchored by DE Maxx Crosby could be enough for the team to win seven or more games in 2024.

But we’re going under the posted win total for this team. The skepticism starts with Pierce, who deserves credit for his work down the stretch in 2023, but still lacks head-coaching experience. Pierce’s defensive coordinator, Patrick Graham, was solid for this team in 2022 and 2023 and was retained for good reason, but the Raiders’ hire of Luke Getsy as offensive coordinator was a head-scratcher.

The former Bears OC led a Chicago offense that struggled throughout his two-year tenure in 2022 and 2023 under Matt Eberflus.

While O’Connell and Minshew are competent, whichever one of them wins a job will be running an offense with a question mark at OC and few players outside of WR Davante Adams who scare opposing defenses.

RBs Zamir White and Alexander Mattison are both unproven as full-time starters.

And while No. 2 receiver Jakobi Meyers is coming off back-to-back solid seasons, he’s not someone defensive coordinators have to game-plan around.

If rookie TE Brock Bowers dominates right away, the Raiders could make us look foolish with this bet, but there are enough question marks on the Las Vegas offense to justify taking Raiders Under 6.5 (+112) at FanDuel.

Minnesota Vikings 2024 Win Total Odds

Minnesota Vikings 2024 Betting Outlook

The Vikings are a tough team to figure out.

On one hand, they won seven games a year ago despite missing their best player, WR Justin Jefferson, for half the season due to injury.

So at first glance, seven or more wins should be within reach — especially considering four different QBs started at least two games in 2023 following Kirk Cousins’ torn Achilles after eight games — right?

But even if you’re bullish on Darnold — or McCarthy, who had far less on his plate at Michigan last year than a typical first-round draft pick at QB — Minnesota has holes on both sides of the ball.

While Minnesota signed Jonathan Greenard to fill DE Danielle Hunter’s shoes, they nevertheless got worse when the latter left for Houston in free agency. The Vikings also lost LB D.J. Wonnum, who finished second on the team in sacks last year.

Unless former Texan Greenard, who is coming off the only double-digit sacks season of his four-year career, can single-handedly make this an imposing front seven, the Vikings look poised to take a step back defensively.

While Jefferson, tight end T.J. Hockenson and former Packers RB Aaron Jones and promising second-year WR Jordan Addison will give either Darnold or McCarthy a solid supporting cast, there’s enough uncertainty around both the Minnesota defense and this team’s QB situation to fade this team.

Take Minnesota Under 6.5 (+135) at ESPN.

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