Key events
And just after typing that, I checked the schedule, and the USA just took another silver medal when a gold was in sight.
I won’t mention the sport in case people don’t want results spoiled. The trend is the important thing. That is the 19th silver medal for the USA.
In some cases, of course, silver and bronze are great. The women’s rugby team taking bronze has been one of the highlights of the Games so far. Evy Leibfarth’s stunner in canoe slalom is another. Silver and bronze in men’s skateboarding isn’t bad. But when will those silvers turn into gold?
In fact, what’s the record for silver medals? Hmmm … more spreadsheet work in my future …
Nations turn their lonely eyes to you …
We’re far enough along in the Olympics for US fans to be concerned about the medal count. Not the overall medal count, which has typically been what US fans notice most, but the gold medal count, which the rest of the world tends to point towards.
I’ll spare you the detailed calculations I used to project gold and overall medals for the USA and China and the update a few days ago. It’s too early in the day for math. The bottom line is that my model that pegged the USA for 48 gold medals is now down to 41. A more subjective count gives the USA something closer to 33 — which might still be enough to take the top spot, because China are behind their projection as well, and France aren’t likely to sustain this momentum, etc., etc.
Anyway — yes, the USA have been dealing with a mix of expected triumphs (Simone Biles, Katie Ledecky), a few surprises (two women’s foil golds, men’s four rowing), and a lot of shocks (US men’s swimming, BMX cycling, surfing, 3×3 basketball – pending further play, shooting – pending the skeet competitions, women’s eight rowing, and women’s tennis).
In soccer, things were looking up for the USA – until yesterday, when the score of the men’s 4-0 loss to Morocco accurately reflected the gulf in technical and tactical acumen between the teams.
So while US fans wait for Simone Biles or maybe Suni Lee to win a couple more gold medals and wait for a potentially giant haul in track and field (starting today with Ryan Crouser and Sha’Carri Richardson?), this women’s soccer team could boost some spirits.
But if you think the USA have had it rough in France, consider Japan.
Sure, they have eight gold medals — three judo, two skateboarding, two gymnastics and one fencing. But in team sports, they’re struggling. Men’s soccer cruised through an easy group but lost in the knockout rounds. Other teams — men’s and women’s basketball, men’s and women’s volleyball, women’s field hockey, men’s handball, men’s rugby sevens and men’s water polo — are a combined 2-22 after men’s water polo lost 23-8 to Spain today. (Women’s rugby sevens won three times to finish ninth.)
Women’s soccer offers a chance to put things right.
Preamble
Good morning, USA – and good afternoon and evening to anyone else eager to see a showdown between two women’s soccer teams with a history of excellence. (Maybe a few people in England eager see Emma Hayes show everyone how to coach a national team?)
We’re used to seeing the USA and Japan meet in later stages. They played in two consecutive World Cup finals, with Homare Sawa and Aya Miyama inspiring Japan to the trophy in 2011 and the USA answering in 2015 as Carli Lloyd scored from nearly everywhere on the field in the first 16 minutes.
Japan hasn’t been at championship level for a few years, but it’s safe to say no US fan is taking this game for granted. This one should be a classic.
(Unless Japan sits way back and waits for Sophia Smith, Mallory Swanson and Trinity Rodman to pull off some 360-degree skateboarding spin move to beat eight defenders and score, in which case, maybe 15 seconds of it will be a classic.)
Enjoy.
