Ukraine Is Crossing Another Russian ‘Red Line’

Russian military bloggers are downplaying the threat that F-16 jets delivered to Ukraine pose for Moscow’s forces, contradicting earlier concerns voiced by pro-invasion voices that a “red line” had been crossed for the Kremlin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that the long-awaited F-16s had been received, as he thanked Denmark, the Netherlands and the U.S.

This is fulfilling a pledge by President Joe Biden for the U.S. to allow allies to supply the American planes and help train the pilots. Kyiv has so far received 10 out of 79 of the jets, according to The Economist, which noted Ukrainian pilots could be flying twice as many as that by the end of the year.

However, Russian milbloggers downplayed the impact the Lockhead Martin jets, which can carry bombs, rockets and missiles, will make on the battlefield.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this stance by the pro-Kremlin war supporters who are important amplifiers of Moscow’s invasion, had undermined Russian operations to portray their arrival as an uncrossable “red line.”

In its update on Sunday, the Washington, D.C., think tank said Russian commentators and officials often warned that giving Western weaponry to Ukraine breaches a red line that could force Russia into an escalatory response.

“Robust air defense systems have meant that neither side has been able to achieve air superiority,” said Peter Rutland, a Russia expert and professor at Wesleyan University. “The F-16s would enhance Ukrainian capacity to intercept Russian drones and helicopters used in support of their ground offensive.”

“But they are not an overnight game changer that will trigger an escalatory response from Moscow,” he told Newsweek.

Red Lines

Since the start of Vladimir Putin‘s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s allies, led by the U.S., have calibrated their military assistance to avoid escalating the conflict.

Last year, Russia made 15 official “red line” statements, compared with 24 it made in the first year of its invasion, the Kyiv Post reported. Putin has said that the threat of nuclear action could happen if the red line of an existential threat to the state was crossed, although what this is has not been clearly defined.

U.S. weapons to Kyiv graduated from from Javelin and Stinger missiles to HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) and M777 Howitzers. A warning by Moscow in September 2023 against the U.S supplying longer-range ATACMS missiles was ignored the following month.

In November 2022, former president Dmitry Medvedev warned against supplying Patriot missile systems, but their supply has not been met by a stern response from Moscow.

Moscow also warned no Western made missiles can be fired into Russia and Ukrainian cross-border attacks in December 2023 killed at least 21 people in the Russian region of Belgorod.

These cases are among those that the ISW said on Sunday showed how Moscow had “repeatedly proven” that referring to red lines “is a reflexive control technique intended to force the West into self-deterring against providing Ukraine with additional military aid.”

The ISW said Kyiv and its allies had crossed Russia’s self-defined red lines without a significant Russian reaction, “which Russian milblogger comments suggest will prove to be the case with Russia’s response to F-16s.”

Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.