Aon and Columbia University renew efforts to assess climate change impacts

Aon plc, a global professional services firm, has renewed its research collaboration with Columbia University to deepen understanding of climate change impacts on severe weather events. The partnership, which will continue until 2027, aims to enhance the assessment of climate risk across various perils and regions.

According to a news release, the collaboration builds on the initial phase, which integrated Columbia’s climate science into Aon’s Impact Forecasting tropical cyclone models. This has led to the launch of Impact Forecasting’s Hurricane Model v3.0, incorporating updated climate change perspectives. The findings from the first phase will be detailed in a forthcoming paper in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience.

Patrick Kelly, Aon’s head of climate analytics for North America, highlighted the importance of understanding interconnected climate risks. “Climate risk across geographies and perils is interconnected and represents a significant area of uncertainty for the re/insurance industry,” he said. “This research will help global organizations navigate volatility, build resilience, and shape better business decisions.”

Key findings from the initial research include:

• Projected US hurricane losses could rise by at least 10% over the next 20 years. However, there is significant uncertainty in these projections, reflecting broader scientific uncertainties about future hurricane frequency.
• Aerosol concentrations are identified as a major driver of Atlantic hurricane frequency, with potential future reductions in aerosols possibly leading to an increase in storm activity.
• Current climate models may be underestimating the impact of greenhouse gases on severe weather, particularly in the Atlantic Ocean, which could affect near-term projections of tropical cyclones and severe storms in the US.

The news release noted that phase two of the collaboration will address these model biases by examining recent climate model simulations. Researchers will focus on the disparity in projected warming patterns between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans to refine predictions of tropical cyclone risks and losses.

Do you have something to say about these findings? Let us know in the comments below.