La Niña timing, sea surface temperatures will be critical for the hurricane season – Aon Reinsurance

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has begun, and updated long-range forecasts suggest it may be one of the most active in recent years. Several institutions have revised their predictions upwards, now expecting an average of 11 to 12 hurricanes during the season, according to insights from Aon Reinsurance Solutions.

A key factor influencing this year’s hurricane activity is the anticipated shift to La Niña conditions, which typically reduce wind shear, a phenomenon that can inhibit tropical cyclone development.

Additionally, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) are expected to play a significant role, as warmer waters tend to enhance the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones.

In its latest report, Aon Reinsurance Solutions notes that these conditions, combined with the potential for an above-average West African monsoon, could result in a particularly active hurricane season. The monsoon can produce clusters of storms that move into the Atlantic, some of which may develop into tropical cyclones.

Hurricane Beryl, which recently broke several meteorological records in the North Atlantic, serves as an early indicator of the season’s potential intensity. Beryl became the earliest-forming Category 5 storm on record for the basin, surviving nearly two weeks despite encountering intense wind shear and land interaction.

The storm caused significant damage across the Caribbean and the south-central United States, resulting in widespread property and infrastructure damage, flash flooding, power outages, and at least 44 fatalities.

While Beryl was only the second named storm of the season, the peak of hurricane activity is yet to come, with the season’s climatological peak occurring on Sept. 10.

Aon Reinsurance Solutions points out that with atmospheric conditions improving and ocean temperatures remaining at record highs, the potential for explosive tropical cyclone activity in the coming months is heightened. The full impact of the 2024 hurricane season remains uncertain, but the early signs indicate a season that could bring significant challenges to the regions in its path.

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