Democratic turnout in Tuesday’s Florida primary elections could represent a reality check for those hoping that Vice President Kamala Harris will achieve a surprise victory in the red-leaning state in November.
Harris has been surging in the polls since entering the presidential race after President Joe Biden dropped out on July 21. Most recent national polls now show the vice president leading former President Donald Trump by a small but significant margin, while she is maintaining a slim lead in several critical swing states.
Encouraging signs have also been present for Harris in Florida, a state that was considered a perennial battleground before swinging right over the past few election cycles. Polls released last week show the Democratic nominee trailing Trump by as little as 2 points, hinting that she may be within striking distance to pull off an upset.
However, Republicans greatly outnumber Democrats in Florida and any potential Harris victory in the state would require a significant improvement in Democratic turnout when compared to recent elections, including figures seen in Tuesday night’s primary elections.
Of the 4,327,859 Democrats who are actively registered to vote in Florida, only about 25.8 percent cast ballots on Tuesday, according to registration figures from the state and turnout numbers from Florida’s Voice.
The same figures show that over 400,000 more Republicans than Democrats turned out on Tuesday, with roughly 28.9 percent of 5,324,654 registered GOP voters casting ballots.
Michael Gordon, a Democratic strategist and the CEO of Gordon Group, told Newsweek via email that the primary turnout numbers do not necessarily indicate that Harris cannot gain ground in Florida, although winning the state would be “an uphill battle.”
“Who shows up in a primary has more to do with the particular races taking place and the candidates who are running than anything it may portend for the general,” Gordon said. “Having said that, it’s an uphill battle for Harris to win Florida.”
“It has gone from purple to red over the last generation, and there hasn’t been a sufficient demographic or political change that puts it realistically in play for the Democrats,” he added.
Turnout is nearly certain to be higher for both parties in November, as Americans tend to cast significantly more ballots in presidential elections than primaries. In Florida’s 2020 presidential election, which Trump won by around 3.5 percent, 77 percent of all registered voters participated.
Independents could also be a factor in Florida, which has over 3.5 million voters who are registered without a party affiliation. Fewer than 10 percent of independents turned out on Tuesday.
Republican strategist Matt Klink argued that “Florida is a solid red state and Donald Trump is in no danger of losing the Sunshine State to Kamala Harris” in an email to Newsweek.
“National Democrats dream of Florida once again being ‘in play,’ but the grim reality for them is that she will not be competitive there. Republican registration has skyrocketed in recent years and GOP enthusiasm remains high,” Klink said.
Klink went on to say that “the ‘tell’ as to whether Democrats believe that the state is really competitive is whether or not they’re spending scarce advertising dollars here.”
Only around $300,000 has been spent on the presidential election in Florida as of last week, mostly from outside groups like the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, according to a Miami Herald report citing Christopher Brimer of the Atlanta agency Canal Partners Media. Trump’s campaign had reportedly not spent any money.
Other political analysts recently told Newsweek that a Harris win in Florida is unlikely but not out of the question.
Dr. Judithanne Scourfield McLauchlan, an associate professor of political science and founding director of the Center for Civic Engagement at the University of South Florida St. Petersburg, said that “it definitely seems as if the tide has begun to turn” and “Florida could be in play.”
Craig Agranoff, a Florida Atlantic University adjunct professor specializing in political marketing and campaigning, told Newsweek that Harris “flipping” Florida this year “would be a significant challenge” but is “not out of the realm of possibility.”
Anna Moneymaker
