For the first time in over 25 years, a whopping six Sydney-based teams are poised to make the top eight.
That is if the Dragons can hold off all challengers over the final two weeks and secure eighth spot.
The race for that last finals spot heated up over the weekend, with five teams still capable of sneaking into eighth.
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Brisbane were seemingly dead and buried a month ago, but they’ve roared back into contention due to some favourable results. The Dolphins looked sure to progress when sitting fourth at the midway point, but they’ve faltered badly.
As mentioned, the Dragons are the favourites to nab that eighth spot and are the only team of the five that control their own destiny while the Raiders and Knights kept their faint hopes alive with big wins last weekend.
At the top, Melbourne have sewn the minor premiership but, but the rest of the top four is far from set in stone, ensuring the final fortnight of 2024 will be nothing short of scintillating.
Read below for the NRL Run Home ahead of Round 26!
1. Melbourne Storm (42 points, +213)
Remaining games: Cowboys (A), Broncos (A)
Best case: Minor premiers
Worst case: Minor premiers
With a comprehensive win over the Dolphins the Melbourne Storm wrapped up the ninth minor premiership in club history.
In doing so, Craig Bellamy’s side not only ensured their first finals game of 2024 would be played in front of their home crowd, but also many of their first-choice players will be able to rest over the final weeks of the season.
That resting begins against the Cowboys this week, with Bellamy set to keep 10 of his star players on ice for the trip to Townsville, much to disdain of sides down the bottom of the eight.
Whether they do the same next week against the Broncos, in a game with potentially serious ramifications for the final place in the eight, remains to be seen at this point.
What is known is that the Storm are frontrunners for premiership glory this season.
2. Sydney Roosters (36 points, +269)
Remaining games: Raiders (H), Rabbitohs (A)
Best case: 2nd
Worst case: 5th
Chances of finishing top four: 98.5%
Having overcome an early JWH sin bin, the Roosters once again showed their immense attacking firepower against the Titans over the weekend, scoring 40-plus points for the eighth time this season.
Angus Crichton continued his career best form with a hat-trick, while Sam Walker and James Tedesco fired once more to lead Trent Robinson’s side to victory.
Not only do the Roosters boast the NRL’s best, but their forward pack is among the best in the competition – with Brandon Smith and Connor Watson set to return to the fold this week.
JWH’s three week suspension for a high shot on Sam Verrills does dent the Roosters slightly, particularly for their clash this week against a Raiders pack capable of physically matching it with anyone.
Even still, the freewheeling nature with which they’ve scored points this season, as well as the emergence of Spencer Leniu, Terrell May and Naufahu Whyte softens JWH’s absence.
If the Roosters win against the Raiders and both the Sharks and Panthers lose their games this weekend, a home qualifying final at Allianz Stadium in a fortnight is confirmed.
3. Cronulla Sharks (36 points, +204)
Remaining games: Warriors (H), Sea Eagles (A)
Best case: 2nd
Worst case: 5th
Chances of finishing top four: 92.5%
What a difference a few weeks makes in rugby league.
After a barren run of form between Round 15 and Round 21, Cronulla have won four on the trot to not only make their place in the top four feel safer, but even have some whispering about their premiership credentials.
A part of this turnaround has been a simplified game plan, whereby they are simply playing straighter, with Blayke Brailey conducting the show more than usual, running harder and hitting with purpose.
It has maximised their output and improved their form.
And the scary part is Nicho Hynes is still to be dropped into this side.
An emotional game against the Warriors this week, the final of former Shark Shaun Johnson’s first grade career, will be a big occasion for Craig Fitzgibbon’s side.
Even more important will be their final round fixture against the Sea Eagles, which could have great implications for both sides’ finals fates.
They will lock in a top four spot this weekend with a win and a Bulldogs loss.
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4. Penrith Panthers (36 points, +158)
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (H), Titans (H)
Best case: 2nd
Worst case: 5th
Chances of finishing top four: 90.9%
Two straight losses have the Panthers in danger of missing the top four. Who would have thought?
They have two weeks to get back on track before the finals and their fans will be happy to know that two very winnable games are in their future (Rabbitohs, Titans).
To finish second and lock in a home qualifying final, they’ll need to win both and hope the Roosters and Sharks have at least one hiccup over the next two weeks.
They can lock in a top four spot this weekend with a win and a Bulldogs loss to Manly.
5. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (34 points, +146)
Remaining games: Manly (H), Cowboys (H)
Best case: 2nd
Worst case: 5th
Chances of finishing top four: 18.1%
Next to no one would have seen the Bulldogs challenging for a top four spot two rounds out from the finals, let alone have a best possible finish of second.
They arguably have the most intriguing run home, with games against the two teams directly below them on the ladder (Cowboys, Sea Eagles).
If they win their final two games and one of the Sharks or Panthers lose at least one of their last two, then it’ll come down to points differential for that fourth spot.
Conversely, the Dogs could finish as low as seventh if they lose both games, Manly win both and the Cowboys win both.
A win in round 26 against Manly means the Dogs will finish no lower than fifth and keep their top four hopes alive.
6. North Queensland Cowboys (32 points, +43)
Remaining games: Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)
Best case: 5th
Worst case: 7th
Chances of finishing top four: 0
The Cowboys are a massive chance of earning a home elimination final for finishing fifth or sixth.
That could be decided by this Friday if they defeat the severely understrength Storm in Townsville on Thursday and Manly lose to the Bulldogs the following night.
If that happens, a sixth-placed finish is confirmed and a date with Manly in the first week of the finals is locked in.
If the Cowboys win and Manly win this weekend, those two and the Bulldogs are certain to finish 5-7 on the ladder, with the order to be determined after the Round 27 fixtures.
7. Manly Sea Eagles (31 points, +121)
Remaining games: Bulldogs (A), Sharks (H)
Best case: 5th
Worst case: 8th
Chances of finishing top four: 0
Two tough games await the Sea Eagles in their last two rounds.
They take on the Bulldogs and Sharks, two teams who are higher on the ladder.
With the sixth-placed Cowboys playing on Thursday, Manly will know by kick-off against the Bulldogs on Friday night what will happen with a loss.
A Cowboys win and Manly loss means that those two teams will meet in the 6 v 7 elimination final in Townsville, no matter what happens in the final round.
If the Sea Eagles manage to win both games, the Bulldogs lose both and the Cowboys lose to the Storm, Manly will finish fifth.
They’ll finish sixth if they win one more game than the Cowboys across the final two rounds.
8. St George Illawarra Dragons (28 points, -120)
Remaining games: Eels (A), Raiders (H)
Best case: 7th
Worst case: 12th
Chance of finishing top eight: 37.2%
Could have gone a long way to locking down a finals berth for the first time in six years had they beat Cronulla, but the Sharks ended up blowing them off the park in the second half.
The good news for Red V fans is that their two remaining games are against teams below them on the ladder and that they control their own destiny.
Due to their horrendous for and against they will want to win those two games to secure eighth spot because there are four teams hot on the Dragons’ heels.
There’s a slight chance they can finish seventh if they win both, granted Manly lose both of their games.
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9. Brisbane Broncos (26 points, +2)
Remaining games: Dolphins (A), Storm (H)
Best case: 8th
Worst case: Miss finals
Chance of finishing top eight: 19.9%
After their round 22 loss to the Titans, the majority of pundits had the Broncos as a long shot to get near the eight.
However, they’ve since then they have won both their matches and with the additional two points for a bye, they are right back in contention.
They’ll need to win their final two games against the Dolphins and the Storm, who are set to play near a full team in the final round after resting 11 against the Cowboys this week.
Because of their superior for/against, if they win both and the Dragons lose at least one more game, Brisbane will finish eighth.
Remarkably, if they beat the Dolphins and the Dragons lose to Parramatta, the Broncos will finish the penultimate round in eighth spot.
10. Dolphins (26 points, -27)
Remaining games: Broncos (H), Knights (A)
Best case: 8th
Worst case: Miss finals
Chance of finishing top eight: 19.9%
Six weeks ago, they would have been short odds on to make the finals, but after losing five of their last six, the Dolphins are on the outside looking in.
They take on the Broncos in a Queensland Derby next weekend, which will essentially be an elimination final, with the loser knocked out of the finals race.
If they win that, beat the Knights the following week and the Dragons lose two, the Dolphins will play finals footy in just their second year in the comp.
If the Dragons lose, the winner of the Dolphins-Broncos clash this weekend will end the round in eighth spot.
11. Newcastle Knights (26 points, -70)
Remaining games: Titans (H), Dolphins (H)
Best case: 8th
Worst case: Miss finals
Chance of finishing top eight: 26.8%
A comprehensive 20-point victory over the struggling Bunnies with impressive halves pairing of Jack Cogger and Phoenix Crossland keeps the Knights in finals contention.
They have been given a 26.8% chance by the Fox Sports Lab of finishing in the top eight, given their soft run home.
The banged up Titans await this week, and the Knights must win that.
While the Lab rates the Knights’ a higher probability of making the eight than Brisbane and the Dolphins, unlike those teams, Newcastle have to win both to progress, due to their ordinary points differential.
If they lose to a Gold Coast side on Sunday who is more than capable on their day, and the Dragons and Raiders both win, Newcastle will be eliminated this weekend.
12. Canberra Raiders (26 points, -131)
Remaining games: Roosters (A), Dragons (A)
Best case: 8th
Worst case: Miss finals
Chance of finishing top eight: 2.0%
The Canberra Raiders kept their faint finals hopes alive with a huge upset win over the Penrith Panthers in a nail biting 22-18 affair.
Following this result, the Fox League Lab has increased their odds of making the eight from 0.5% to 2%.
It doesn’t get any easier for Canberra though with the red-hot Roosters on the docket next.
If they can somehow lower the colours of a premiership heavyweight for the second straight week, it could set up a battle for eighth against the Dragons in Round 27.
They’ll know if they are still in contention by the time their clash with the Roosters rolls around this weekend, because if the Dolphins and Knights both win, the Raiders are eliminated.
Wholesome Ricky Stuart on Whitehead | 06:21
13. Gold Coast Titans (22 points, -140)
Remaining games: Knights (A), Panthers (H)
It is officially impossible for the Titans to jag a top eight finish in 2024.
They will finish off their season with two tough match-ups against the Knights, who are in the midst of a fight for eighth spot, and the Panthers, who are in a tightly contested battle with the Roosters and Sharks for a home qualifying final.
The Titans have a lot to be proud of this season, putting together a solid 2024 campaign that involved Alofiana Khan-Pereira breaking a 62-year-old try-scoring record, and defeating their ‘big brother’ Broncos twice this season.
What they have to look forward to next season is the return of skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, who missed much of 2024 with a knee injury.
In addition, former Wallaby Carter Gordon is being tipped to add plenty to their side next season and he should compliment the Gold Coast’s talented backline quite nicely.
14. New Zealand Warriors (21 points, -64)
Remaining games: Sharks (A), bye
Unfortunately for the Warriors the emotional farewell of one their greatest servants in Shaun Johnson, was overshadowed by the Stephen Crichton sin binning blunder.
An emotional Johnson was warmly welcomed by yet another sold out Auckland crowd, which helped bolster the Warriors to an early 12-nil lead.
The Bulldogs however, ruined the party, completely shutting out their opposition in the second half for the third consecutive week.
The Warriors get one final chance to send their champion halfback out on a win, when they face Cronulla on Saturday night.
Ironically, Johnson will see out his NRL career against Cronulla, the only other club he played for, which is also is the team that departing forward Addin Fonua-Blake is joining at season’s end.
15. South Sydney Rabbitohs (20 points, -158)
Remaining games: Penrith (A), Roosters (H)
South Sydney face a dire reality of finishing the season with seven consecutive losses.
The Bunnies will have to face NRL powerhouses in the Panthers and the Roosters to finish off their season, which is tough enough in itself, but add in the added extra aspect of being without Cameron Murray for the remainder of the season after he failed to overturn his ban for a high shot at the judiciary.
With Wayne Bennett incoming next season with already a number of signings, their is some extra pressure on players to perform if they want to hold onto their position at the club.
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16. Parramatta Eels (16 points, -193)
Remaining games: Dragons (H), Tigers (A)
Parramatta’s season seems to be going from bad to worse after they shot out to a quick 16-nil lead, only to be run down 30-24 on Friday night against the Brisbane Broncos.
What must be of some solace to fans, is that despite the mounting losses, their side is showing ticker in most of these games.
The Eels face the Dragons at home this week, before they gear up for their bottom of the table match up with the Tigers.
Since Wests have a bye this week, a loss would see Paramatta fall to outright last, so there’s extra incentive for the Eels to jag a win against the Dragons, but it will be extremely tough as the Dragons have built a reputation this season of backing up a bad loss with a win.
17. Wests Tigers (16 points, -253)
Remaining games: bye, Eels (H)
After a remarkable come-from-behind victory over the Manly Sea Eagles last week, the Tigers have set up a game for the wooden spoon against the Eels in Round 27.
It was a pair of ex-Manly youngsters in brothers Samuela and Latu Fainu who helped put their old club to the sword.
Even though this season hasn’t gone to plan for rookie coach Benji Marshall, back-to-back wins against the Rabbitohs and Manly have given the fans something to cheer for and provided plenty of hope heading into next season.
It can be assured that if they happen to win in Round 27 to avoid a third-straight spoon, it will be celebrated like a finals win – and so it should.
PREDICTED WEEK 1 FINALS MATCHUPS
First qualifying final
1. Melbourne Storm vs. 4. Penrith Panthers
Second qualifying final
2. Sydney Roosters vs. 3. Cronulla Sharks
First elimination final
6. Manly Sea Eagles vs. 7. North Queensland Cowboys
Second elimination final
5. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs. 8. St. George-Illawarra Dragons
