There are two rounds left in the NRL regular season but already, seven teams have booked their finals tickets and are locked into the top seven spots.
Where it gets interesting is the race for the eighth, with five teams battling for that final spot before the round.
However, a Dragons loss, a Broncos loss and a Newcastle win over the Titans, means the Knights’ final round showdown with the Dolphins will determine who finishes eighth.
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That’s unless there’s a stunning draw, which would open the door for the Dragons vs Raiders winner.
Here, foxsports.com.au dissects the all-important race for the last finals spot as well as what can happen between positions one and seven, as teams try and jostle for a second chance or a home final.
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RACE FOR EIGHTH SPOT
8th — Dolphins (28 points, 7)
Remaining games – Knights (a)
Six weeks ago, they would have been short odds on to make the finals, but after losing five of their last six, the Dolphins were on the outside looking in. A big win over the Broncos saw them jump into eighth and should they beat the Knights next week, the Dolphins will play finals footy in just their second year in the comp.
9th —Knights (28 points, -54)
Remaining games – Dolphins (h)
Took care of business and thrashed the Rabbitohs in Round 25 and then kept the momentum going with a win over the Titans. To progress to the finals, Newcastle just have to beat the Dolphins in the final round, although if the two teams played out a draw that would open up the chance for the Raiders or Dragons to sneak in.
10th — Dragons (28 points, -124)
Remaining games – Raiders (h)
They would have pencilled in the last spot in the eight with a win over Cronulla, but they couldn’t get the job done. The Red V took on a desperate Eels outfit on Saturday and fell short 44-40. They now face Canberra in the final round and have to win that and hope for a draw between the Knights/Dolphins.
11th — Raiders (26 points, -131)
Remaining games – Dragons (a)
Consecutive upset wins over Penrith and the Roosters have somehow kept Canberra in the hunt. But it’s still very unlikely they make it due to their differential; after the Knights’ win over the Titans, the Raiders need to win and hope for a unlikely draw between the Dolphins and Knights next week.
12th — Broncos (26 points, -32)
Remaining games – Storm (h)
The Knights win over the Titans has officially eliminated the Broncos from finals contention. An astounding fall from grace following they led a grand final by two tries just 11 months ago.
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1ST TO 7TH
1st — Storm (42 points, +205)
Remaining games – Broncos (a)
The Storm locked up the minor premiership with a win over the Dolphins after the Raiders upset the Panthers in Canberra last week. It’s the sixth minor premiership for Craig Bellamy’s men in 14 years.
2nd — Panthers (38 points, +180)
Remaining games – Titans (h)
Coach Ivan Cleary admitted after the loss to Canberra that Penrith aren’t playing good footy at the moment. But they should still land in a home qualifying final, just needing to beat the Titans next week to secure it. They would play either the Roosters or Sharks in all likelihood.
3rd — Roosters (36 points, +269)
Remaining games – Rabbitohs (a)
They were humming before a staggering loss to the Raiders which also cost them three players to injury. They’re gonna make the top four but now they need Penrith to lose again if they’re to host a qualifying final, otherwise they’re set to face the Panthers in said game.
4th — Sharks (36 points, +202)
Remaining games – Sea Eagles (a)
Improved to third with the win over the Dragons on Sunday but have dropped back to fourth with the loss to the Warriors. The second half blitz means their for/against has improved to an impressive +204, which should be enough of a margin to hold the tie-breaker over the Panthers, but they now need Penrith to lose next week to the Gold Coast to overtake the defending premiers. The Sharks have had quite the season despite a few key injuries, but can they do it in the finals? It’s been the big question mark looming over them since Craig Fitzgibbon was hired, with the Sharks going 0-3 in finals games during that span. Cronulla close out the season with a final round blockbuster against the Sea Eagles in Round 27. They can still finish as high as second, but that requires the Roosters to lose next week as well.
5th — Bulldogs (34 points, +134)
Remaining games – Cowboys (h)
A loss to the Sea Eagles has dashed the Dogs’ chances of finishing inside the top four and now they control their own destiny, with fifth spot locked in if they win next week against the sixth-placed Cowboys. A loss, however, could see them drop as low as seventh should Manly defeat the Sharks. Given the Bulldogs’ home record (10-1), that would be a big blow for their finals hopes.
6th — Cowboys (34 points, +51)
Remaining games – Bulldogs (a)
They have a final round showdown with the Dogs which will likely decide who finishes fifth. A draw could open the door for Manly to jump both teams. North Queensland cab finish as high as fifth or as low as seventh. A Cowboys loss and Sea Eagles loss would still see Todd Payten’s men finish sixth with a home final.
7th — Sea Eagles (33 points, +133)
Remaining games – Sharks (h)
Can finish as high as fifth, but for that to happen, they need a draw between the Bulldogs and Cowboys. At this stage, a home final and sixth-place finish is the likely best scenario and would require Manly to beat the Sharks.
