I have to remind people sometimes I’m almost never sending a message with the reader emails I post or signaling agreement. The the ones I post are not necessarily representative either. That applies to AB’s email from yesterday. I do think Pennsylvania is going to be an epic battle. But I’m more optimistic. Here’s another note from TPM Reader TH …
I am not going to dismiss AB’s observations, but I think they’re are reaching an incorrect conclusion. The observation that there is less enthusiasm about Trump is something I’ve noticed as well (in southeastern PA). We were out on my FIL’s boat last wknd and we usually see a number of your stereotypical Trump-flagged vessels. Last weekend? 2. So, again, I buy that wholesale.
Where I disagree is that I do think it is indicative of Trump’s flagging performance. I think we have enough evidence in the polls, as well as historical correlations to enthusiasm gaps and turnout, that it is more likely that the two indicators are pointing in the same direction. In 2016, they were not.
On a related note, my own informal neighborhood polling (Philly burbs swing district that is now ~51/49 blue since 2018 midterms) suggests that Harris has firmed up the support of this voting bloc. They were washy but likely voting for Biden pre-debate, free agents after three debate, and solid Harris now (barring some monumental event).
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