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Arizona vs. Kansas State Betting Preview
Arizona Wildcats Betting News, Analysis
Arizona boasts one of the best receivers in the country in McMillan, a 6-foot-5 matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. He and Fifita led one of the highest-scoring teams in the country down the stretch in 2023.
The biggest questions for the Wildcats this offseason were:
- 1) Could they remain solid on defense despite losing most of last year’s key contributors?
- 2) How much would the loss of Fisch impact the offense?
So far this year, the jury is still out on both of those. The Wildcats offense got the season off to a strong start, with a 61-39 win over New Mexico as 29-point favorites, but struggled with Northern Arizona last week. Fifita and Co. were 36.5-point favorites, but they were down 10-6 to the Lumberjacks at the half before recovering and winning that game 22-10.
Ahead of Friday night’s trip to the Little Apple, two potential concerns for Arizona are McMillan and star transfer RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
McMillan was insanely productive in Week 1 — even by his lofty standards — with 10 catches for 304 yards and four TDs. He caught just two passes for 11 yards against Northern Arizona last week, though. Chances are, McMillan will be a focal point of this offense against K-State. Still, given that he had at least 50 yards receiving in 11 of 13 games last year — including four straight 100-yard efforts to end the season — his limited impact last week is worth noting.
Arizona has gotten two big games to start the year from San Jose State transfer Quali Conley at RB, and this team boasts another stud RB from the portal in Jacory Croskey-Merrit. The latter was outstanding at New Mexico in 2023 (1,190 yards and 17 TDs on 6.3 yards per carry) and effective for Arizona in Week 1, but he was held out of last week’s game due to questions about his eligibility. His status against Kansas State is uncertain as of Friday.
Kansas State Wildcats Betting News, Analysis
Kansas State has the second-shortest odds to win the Big 12 behind Utah, as they’re currently listed at +400 at FanDuel and +390 at DraftKings.
With one of the most explosive QBs in the country, Avery Johnson, under center, and two dangerous running backs in D.J. Giddens and Dylan Edwards, the Wildcats have a high-upside offense to complement a consistently good defense under head coach Chris Klieman.
Last week against Tulane, however, the Wildcats’ D looked vulnerable. They allowed Tulane freshman Darian Mensah to throw for 342 yards and two touchdowns on just 29 attempts, which doesn’t bode well for this team’s chances in the pass-happy Big 12.
In fact, K-State was lucky to avoid an upset loss as 9.5-point favorites, as Tulane appeared to score a game-tying touchdown with 17 seconds left. A flag for offensive pass interference took that score off the board, though, and a pick in the end zone by VJ Payne moments later allowed K-State to escape with the win.
Kansas State shouldn’t apologize for a win on the road against a contender in the AAC. That being said, the fact it needed a 60-yard scoop-and-score by safety Jack Fabris earlier in the second half and a last-second interception to survive Tulane makes it hard to trust this team to win the Big 12 this season.
Does that mean we’re putting K-State on upset alert in Week 3?
Arizona vs. Kansas State Prediction
Arizona has the edge in experience at quarterback, and the Wildcats’ issues preventing big plays by Tulane makes it easy to see Fifita and McMillan keeping Friday night’s game close, if not pulling out the upset.
Kansas State will have an advantage on both sides of the ball at the line of scrimmage. But if Arizona — which allowed New Mexico to run for more than 200 yards in Week 1 — can slow down Giddens, Edwards and Johnson on the ground, the solid UA secondary led by CB Tacario Davis should be able to force Johnson into a mistake or two in just his fourth career start.
Picking Arizona to win outright in a tough atmosphere is not something we’re quite ready to pull the trigger on given how little we have to go on from the level of UA’s competition to date.
We like them to at least one keep this one tight, though, especially at +7.5.
There are enough questions about each defense, and enough offensive talent on both of these squads, to take the over at 58.5.
Arizona vs. Kansas State Best Bets
- Arizona +7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
- Over 58.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
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