The NDP expects to hold its Winnipeg stronghold in byelection

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OTTAWA — Heading into Monday’s byelection in Winnipeg, federal New Democrats are expecting to hold onto a seat that has been in the party for decades despite a fierce Conservative campaign that accused NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh of abandoning the working class.

The fight for Elmwood—Transcona marks the first head-to-head battle between the parties since the Conservatives soared in public opinion polls last year and after Singh entered into the now-defunct deal with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to get priorities like dental care and pharmacare passed in exchange for propping up his minority government.

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Monday’s byelection will also be the first time in nearly a decade that the Blaikie name, a family whose roots run deep in the community, will not appear on the ballot. The contest was triggered after former MP Daniel Blaikie announced he was resigning to work for Manitoba NDP Premier Wab Kinew.

His father, the late Bill Blaikie, had represented the area for two decades starting in 1988 under a different riding name.

A senior NDP source, speaking on the condition they not be named, acknowledged the race has been a fight but is expecting to win. Conservatives anticipate making gains and are bracing for a tight result.

The many lawn signs dotting the riding that depict Singh shaking hands with Trudeau make the Conservatives’ pitch to voters clear: “Vote against sellout Singh.” Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre also door-knocked and staged a rally in an effort to fire up volunteers for the fight ahead.

Flush with fundraising cash, the party launched ads labelling Singh as a “sellout.”

Singh himself has visited several times, including during the city’s Labour Day parade and again on Friday.

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Even with Poilievre’s focus on affordability appearing to resonate nationally, the party is faced with a challenge in Elmwood—Transcona, where voting NDP is a historical habit and the party’s brand is strong provincially under Kinew. The provincial NDP won a majority government last October, defeating the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives, largely on a pledge to fix health care.

That also gives the federal party a machine to lean on.

Among those who have received a call is former longtime provincial NDP cabinet minster Gord Mackintosh, who believes Singh exiting the supply-and-confidence deal with the Liberals to be a “likely game-changer.”

He believes that to be especially true in the Transcona part of the constituency — which is home to many rail workers — following the Liberals’ decision to impose binding arbitration after a rail lockout, which Singh blasted as “anti-worker.”

“It will make a difference in what many people think is a close contest,” said Mackintosh, who is now a senior adviser at Counsel Public Affairs.

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Speaking to reporters in Montreal this past week, Singh took aim Poilievre’s efforts to court workers, criticizing the Conservative leader’s silence during the rail dispute.

Poilievre has accused Singh of ending his deal with the Liberals only to boost his party’s fortunes in the Winnipeg and Montreal byelections. He has repeatedly challenged him to vote non-confidence in the Liberal government, but Singh has not committed to doing so, saying the NDP would instead look at each vote as it arrives.

The senior NDP source says ripping up the deal has generated attention for the party, giving it the opportunity to articulate its vision for change against the Conservatives.

Former NDP director of communications George Soule said there is “no question” the agreement hurt not only Singh, but any NDP candidate.

“Justin Trudeau is an anchor around anybody who’s connected to him,” said Soule, who is a principal at Syntax Strategic.

“I think the number one issue on the majority of Canadians’ (minds) right now is, ‘anybody but Justin Trudeau,’ and the more distance I think that any politician, but in this case, Jagmeet and the NDP, can put between them and Justin Trudeau, I think can only help their campaign,” he said.

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Melanie Richer, a former communications director for Singh, said while the Winnipeg byelection will be a first test for the party since exiting the deal, it may be too soon to see its impact, given the party is still in the early stages of fleshing out its renewed message to Canadians.

I think the number one issue on the majority of Canadians’ (minds) right now is, ‘anybody but Justin Trudeau’

She and others also question the riding’s reputation as a safe NDP seat, noting how the party has at times only won it by a slim margin. With no Blaikie name on the ballot, that also inserts more uncertainty

“We say that this is a very orange seat. It’s actually not a very orange seat. It’s a Blaikie seat,” she said.

Leila Dance, the executive director of a business improvement association in the riding, is running for the New Democrats against the Conservatives’ Colin Reynolds, an electrician and union member of IBEW Local 2085. 

Neither Dance nor Reynolds was made available for interviews.

Philippe Fournier of 338Canada.com, which publishes a statistical model of electoral projections based on polling, demographics and elections history, said the federal New Democrats should hold the seat but the margin of victory will send an important signal.

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Fred DeLorey, who ran the Conservative campaign in the 2021 general vote where the Tories finished a far second behind the New Democrats, believes that Canadians’ concerns over the party’s attitude towards the COVID-19 pandemic drove the outcome in the riding.

Winning that seat would be a huge upset for the Conservatives, but closing that gap would nonetheless be a victory as it shows the party to be competitive, he said.

“That’s a win,” he said.

Speaking in Montreal where the NDP staged its caucus meeting, Peter Julian suggested the possibility of losing the stronghold may not necessarily spell trouble for Singh.

The British Columbia representative recalled how in 2011 the former NDP riding of Winnipeg-North flipped to the Liberals in a byelection, which triggered concerns about the popularity of then NDP Leader Jack Layton.

“A few weeks after that loss … we got the greatest number of MPs we had in our history, the orange wave,” the NDP house leader recalled.

“Ultimately, what’s the most important thing is the momentum that we’re seeing nationally.”

Coincidentally, the federal Conservatives won Elmwood—Transcona in that same 2011 election due to the Liberal vote collapsing, said DeLorey, which is another factor for both parties in Monday’s byelection.

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Alberta Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner, who originally hails from Winnipeg, told reporters this week her own step-father lives in the riding and the retired electrician, like others, is struggling to make end’s meeting.

“Our candidate there, he’s an electrician too, and he’s working hard to address the needs of the people … which are affordable housing, affordable groceries and essentially stopping crime,” she said.

“We hope for the best.”

National Post
staylor@postmedia.com

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