Four takeaways from the prime minister’s 48 hours in the US for the Quad

The PM’s dash to the US east coast for a meeting of the Quad over the weekend was notable for its brevity. Two days in the air for just two days on the ground is a punishing way to travel.

But a short time doesn’t necessarily mean a short shrift.

In 48 hours, Anthony Albanese attended the Quad Leader’s Summit, had three bi-lateral meetings, launched a cancer initiative and breathed in the air of the US presidential election campaign in an important swing state.

Oh, and he also followed in the steps of Sylvester Stallone — and an untold number of tourists — up the stairs of the Philadelphia Museum of Art, a la prize-fighter Rocky.

But that’s a story for another day.

Instead, here’s four things the prime minister’s trip revealed about the Quad, leadership, language and life lessons.

The US presidential election could determine the fate of the Quad

Albanese, India’s Narendra Modi and Japan’s Fumio Kishida landed at Philadelphia airport before hitting the road 30 minutes south to Claymont, Delaware for the Quad Leader’s Summit.

They would not have failed to notice the election ads on the billboards lining the I-95 highway, replete with Donald Trump’s cartoon likeness and the Democrats’ earnestness.

The decision of US voters in November could mean the difference between continuity for the Quad and an up-ending of America’s outlook on the world.

When Trump was last in the White House, he tore up the previous administration’s Iran nuclear deal and encouraged Russia to do whatever it wanted with NATO members who were tardy with paying their bills.

Safe to say current members of the Quad Squad have good reason to be a touch uncertain about the future of their gatherings should Donald Trump be returned to the presidency, regardless of their insistence otherwise.

But whatever antipathy a Make America Great Again Again administration may have about another international talkfest, the Quad could prove rather handy for a leader that doesn’t want bear the burden of tackling regional challenges alone.

As Biden steps down, Modi steps up as the elder statesman of the Quad

It was US President Joe Biden who elevated the status of the Quad in 2021 from a meeting of ministers to a meeting of presidents and prime ministers. 

That personal investment — combined with his long career in politics and the not-inconsiderable economic and military might of the US — has made Mr Biden the leader among leaders. Leader-in-chief? No, never mind.

But the next Quad would not be hosting Mr Biden — or Mr Kishida. He is stepping down this week to make way for a successor, which is a polite way of saying a fundraising scandal in his government and desperately low approval ratings got the better of him.

Mr Albanese will face the polls before the next meeting, though it’s far too soon to prognosticate about his chances of being returned for a second term.

Regardless, at the next meeting of the Quad, Mr Modi will be the elder statesman. He has been in office for a decade and has stretched out his time in power to a third term.

He already has considerable leverage in the group. India’s commitment to non-alignment — signing no treaties alliances and hedging its bets with a wide array of strategic partnerships – means he has a different set of relationships that are at times useful and at other times troublesome.

As both elder statesman and host of the next Quad meeting, Mr Modi will have considerable command of the agenda in 2025.

Australia speaks softly about China while collectively the Quad thunders

The Quad is a summit that is not about China, but really is about China. After all, Joe Biden’s ‘hot mic’ moment made it clear China has a permanent place at the top of the Quad agenda.  

Mr Albanese has a default response to just about any question relating to China and he rolled it out again during this trip.

“My position is very clear. It’s that we will co-operate when we can, we will disagree where we must, but we’ll engage in our national interest,” he said when asked about the challenges China poses to the Indo-Pacific.

It’s a mild assertion of sovereignty, designed to delicately demarcate concerns about China expanding the grey zone of questionable actions from the desire to maintain a bountiful trading relationship.

The communique issued by the Quad at the end of its meeting thunders in comparison.

“We seek a region where no county dominates and no country is dominated — one where all countries are free from coercion,” it states.

Lest anyone be uncertain what that refers to, it goes on to describe China’s actions in the East and South China Seas specifically.

“We continue to express our serious concern about the militarisation of disputed features, and coercive and intimidating manoeuvres in the South China Sea. We condemn the dangerous use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels, including increasing use of dangerous manoeuvres….”

It’s not that the Australian government isn’t willing to call out China – it certainly hasn’t shied away from doing so in certain circumstances. 

But it is noteworthy that the Australian government’s default position is markedly more tepid than even the diplomatically approved language of an official communique.

With an election on the horizon, the PM wants to stay at home

Mr Albanese is a reluctant international summiteer.

The last Labor prime minister, Kevin Rudd, thrived on conceptualising and programmatically specifying regional institutional architecture. 

(As it happens, Mr Rudd is now Australia’s ambassador to the US and joined Mr Albanese on his Rocky ascent of the stairs in Philly, but again, not today’s story.)

Mr Albanese, however, confesses to a minimalist mindset.

“I have been to the overseas meetings that I have to go to,” he said after arriving in Philadelphia.

For example, the UN General Assembly is sitting this week but instead of joining other world leaders an hour-and-a-half up the road in New York, he is flying straight back to Canberra.

He may well pass Foreign Minister Penny Wong in the air, who is jetting in to lead Australia’s delegation.

“With domestic responsibilities I have as well I’m very conscious of [sic], so I have limited [overseas trips] to the extent possible,” he said.

Many of the summits on the ‘have to do’ list are happening in the next two months: ASEAN and the East Asia Summit, the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, followed by more long-haul flights to the G20 and APEC summits in South America.

It will fill up Mr Albanese’s diary at a time when the government wants to turn its attention to its pitch for re-election (a general election is due no later than May).

“I know I get criticised for not doing more international travel … the irony of that, when compared with some of the coverage of when I do travel, is not lost,” he said, in reference to the ‘Airbus Albo‘ jibes that have been lobbed at him.

Expecting criticism either way, perhaps he’s taking the life lesson to heart: “If it’s something you gotta do, then you do it. Fighters fight.”

Not a bad line. Thanks Rocky Balboa.