Netanyahu is Israel’s curse, but he and his strategy are safe at least until the U.S. election in November, and a lot longer if Trump wins then.
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By: Gwynne Dyer
Six Jewish hostages were murdered by Hamas earlier this month, just before the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reached them, and a controversy has erupted in Israel about whether Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu should have done more to save them.
But only among the ignorant and the credulous, because everybody else knew he never intended to save them.
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If your child is kidnapped and you get a ransom note, do you:
A: Pay the ransom if you can possibly raise the money, informing the police only after your child is safe?
B: Ask the police to find and free the child, accepting the risk that she might get killed in the process?
C: Write the child off, as you have other priorities that take precedence?
Most parents would choose Option A if they could afford it or Option B if they could not. Almost none would choose Option C. But politicians are dealing with other people’s children, and the calculations are different.
When Hamas fighters from the Gaza Strip attacked Israel last October, killing 1,200 Israelis and taking 250 others as hostages, Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu owed the latter group a duty of care, but it wasn’t unlimited.
For public consumption, therefore, Netanyahu adopted Option B: Ask the police (or actually the army, in this case) to find the hostages and liberate them, although he must have known privately they would be killed before they could be rescued.
This is a reality often ignored by the hostages’ families and their supporters. The kidnappers in this case are not random criminals but trained and fanatical soldiers. They are holding the hostages in tunnels as much as twenty metres underground. Of course they will kill the hostages before Israeli soldiers reach them. There is no real Option B.
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These are the facts, and they would have forced Netanyahu to write off the hostages or agree to a cease-fire even if he were a wise and honest man. He is neither, of course.
He is a man facing likely conviction in three criminal trials for corruption that have been interrupted because of the war. Conviction could carry a jail sentence, so he is in no hurry for the trials to resume.
He is a man who is playing for time, because the longer the time between last October’s Hamas attacks and the date when the inquiry opens into his responsibility for not preventing that disaster, the better for him. Something else might turn up: a Trump election victory; a war with Iran that drags the Americans in; anything that changes the subject.
Netanyahu is a man who, 11 months into the war, has yet to give a single hint about how he thinks the Gaza Strip should be governed when the war ends.
He wants to avoid that day because his coalition is dependent on an extreme right-wing party which relies on the turmoil of the war to distract attention from its campaign to drive as many Palestinians as possible out of the occupied West Bank.
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“Today, we have power in the government,” said National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a leading light of that far-right group. “I’m not ashamed to say that we’re using this power to prevent a reckless deal and to stop any negotiations altogether.”
To prevent any deal and any negotiations at all, in fact.
There were big anti-Netanyahu demonstrations and a six-hour national strike by the countrywide trade union Histadrut on the following day, but they tamely shut it down when the courts ruled that it was political.
Netanyahu is Israel’s curse, but he and his strategy are safe at least until the U.S. election in November, and a lot longer if Trump wins then. Nothing Joe Biden can bring himself to do or say in the meantime will change that.
Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist based in London, England.
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