A new analysis by Gallagher Re predicts that Hurricane Helene could lead to $3 billion to $6 billion in private insurance losses, with an additional $1 billion in losses for federal flood and crop insurance programs.
The storm, expected to make landfall in North Florida as a major hurricane on Thursday night, is already causing significant storm surge in coastal communities. Helene’s large wind field is a key factor in the high projected losses. Hurricane-force wind gusts and storm surge are expected to reach heavily populated areas, including the Tampa Bay region.
Read: NHC Update: Hurricane Helene Strengthens, Major Hurricane Landfall Expected In Florida
The analysis warns that if the storm shifts east towards Tampa, insurance costs could exceed $10 billion. As of Wednesday afternoon, a hurricane warning was in effect from the Anclote River to Mexico Beach, with potential storm surge of 12 to 18 feet in some areas.
The wide wind swath of Helene is expected to cause significant damage across much of Florida, including tree-related impacts in Tallahassee and the northern parts of the state. In the peninsula, tropical storm-force wind gusts could lead to minor damage to properties, contributing to higher overall losses.
Flood damage is a major concern, as property insurance policies typically do not cover it. The National Flood Insurance Program is expected to face major losses, particularly in areas with high policy take-up rates like Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Pasco counties.
Read: The Devastating Right Side Of A Hurricane: Understanding The Dangers
While Citizens Property Insurance Corp., the largest property insurer in Florida, might avoid major losses if Helene stays on its projected track, an eastward shift towards Tampa could lead to a significant increase in claims.
Citizens President and CEO Tim Cerio noted that Hurricane Debby, a Category 1 storm that made landfall last month, resulted in 2,792 claims for Citizens, with 70% coming from the Tampa-Sarasota region due to damage sustained as the storm moved up the Gulf. Many of these claims involved flood damage, which Citizens doesn’t cover. Cerio assured that Citizens is focused on preparing for Helene.
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