Fire erupts between Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv and the city of Modiin following an Iranian missile attack, on October 1, 2024. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said a missile attack under way against Israel on October 1 was in response to the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah last week as well as that of the Hamas leader.
AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP via Getty Images
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AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP via Getty Images
Fire erupts between Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv and the city of Modiin following an Iranian missile attack, on October 1, 2024. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said a missile attack under way against Israel on October 1 was in response to the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah last week as well as that of the Hamas leader.
AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP via Getty Images
The war in the Middle East appears to be widening, almost one year after Hamas launched its attack on Israel.
This comes after Iran launched a major missile strike that targeted sites across Israel, while Israel’s air defenses attempted to shoot down the incoming fire, Israeli officials said.
NPR’s Hadeel Al-Shalchi and Greg Myre reported that Iran has claimed the missile attack was in response to the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut Friday, which killed 39 people, according to Lebanese health officials.
There was no immediate word on casualties or the amount of damage caused by the Iranian attack on Tuesday night.
Al-Shalchi and Myre also reported that Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon have killed more than 1,000 people in the past two weeks and forced many civilians to flee their homes, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. The strikes have targeted Hezbollah and its weapons, killing Nasrallah and several other top officials, as well as many civilians.
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Iran’s strategy.
For more on what might unfold from here, Consider This host Ailsa Chang spoke with General Frank McKenzie, the retired Commander of United States Central Command.
Chang asked him if he had a sense of Iran’s calculations, in launching Tuesday’s attacks, and what it all might mean for the wider region.
“The long term goal of all Iranian foreign policy is regime preservation. They want to preserve the clerical regime. They don’t get themselves into a situation where that regime is actually subject to direct attack by Israel or the United States or anyone else,” he said.
McKenzie expressed his surprise towards the action taken by Iran.
“To be honest with you, I doubt their ability to have genuine success in this attack. And now the Israelis will have the option to retaliate and the Israelis possess far more retaliatory options against Iran than Iran does against Israel.”
The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is a major factor, but even then, McKenzie says that this will likely not bode well for Iran.
“Things did not go well for them in April when they launched the last attack on Israel. So you could see that Iranian thinking could be that they need to do something now. You’ve got to be very careful if you’re going to do something, it needs to have a meaningful effect. If it doesn’t have a meaningful, meaningful effect, you’re going to be in worse shape than you were when you began.”
Ripple effects.
As to whether or not McKenzie believes this will lead to more U.S. involvement in the Middle East, he says precedent will likely predict that outcome.
“Well, I think we did last time. I would assume we’re doing it this time. So I don’t know, it’s certainly very likely, I’d be very surprised if that’s not the case.”
His top concerns on what might come next?
“I think the thing that people’s minds will turn to next, [is] what will be the Israeli response? It will be scoped to what happens in this attack, which is not yet complete. So if there’s significant damage done in this attack, then I would look for a very large Israeli response, and they’ve demonstrated that they have the ability to do it.”
McKenzie says Israel has already demonstrated it has the ability to operate “almost with impunity over Tehran,” and that will likely factor into whatever their response may be.
This episode was produced by Kathryn Fink and Michael Levitt. It was edited by Courtney Dorning and Christopher Intagliata. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun.
