UFC 307 is set to kick off on Saturday, Oct. 4, bringing with it a ton of exciting matchups. Among the exciting matchups are Alex Pereira returning to defend his light heavyweight title against Khalil Roundtree Jr., Kayla Harrison engaging in her second fight with the promotion against Ketlen Vieira, and so much more.
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There are early prelims, prelims, and the main card that will feature 12 total fights throughout the night. Here is how to watch each slate of contests.
How to Watch
The night kicks off with the early prelims, which can be watched on UFC Fight Pass. Three fights are scheduled to begin at 3:30 p.m. PST/ 6:30 p.m. EST.
The second slate for the night features four bouts for the prelims, which can be viewed on ESPN and ESPN+. The prelims start at 5:00 p.m. PST/ 8:00 p.m. EST.
The main card features five fights, two of which are title fights. The main card action can be ordered through ESPN+. The main card kicks off at 7:00 p.m. PST/ 10:00 p.m. EST.
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Main Card Predictions
Ketlen Vieira (14-3-0) vs. Kayla Harrison (17-1-0)
The main card kicks off with the aforementioned fight between Kayla Harrison and Ketlen Vieira. Harrison made her UFC debut in April 2023, against former UFC Bantamweight Women’s Champion Holly Holm, winning by rear naked choke in the second round.
Harrison is a strong judo fighter, who has elite-level wrestling. However, Vieira also defeated Holm back in May 2022 via a split decision. Vieira would lose to current Bantamweight Champion Raquel Pennington back in Jan. 2023 but rebounded with a win against Pannie Kianzad in Jul 2023 via unanimous decision.
Vieira has a 92% takedown defense, so expect her to put up a fight against Harrison. However, Harrison might be overwhelmed early and often. Expect a Harrison finish early.
Harrison by TKO in Round 2.
Roman Dolidze (13-3-0) vs. Kevin Holland (26-11-0, 1NC)
Roman Dolidze and Kevin Holland are an interesting matchup at middleweight. Both have the kind of striking that can put their opponent out in a flash. However, Holland has been up and down in his last three matches.
Holland is currently 1-2 in his last three, losing to Jack Della Maddalena by split decision in Sep. 2023, losing by unanimous decision to Michael Page in April 2024, and winning against Michal Oleksiejczuk by submission.
Holland looked good against Oleksiejczuk and he might need to utilize his wrestling and grappling to take down Dolidze.
Dolidze is also 1-2 in his last three fights, but more recently defeated Anthony Smith via unanimous decision in June 2024. Dolidze has a 33 percent takedown defense and might need to keep things on the feet to survive.
Holland might want to stand up and trade blows with Dolidze, but he should go for takedowns more in this matchup.
Holland by submission in Round 3.
Jose Aldo (32-8-0) vs. Mario Bautista (14-2-0)
The “King of Rio” is officially back in the octagon. Former Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo will face off against Mario Bautista in a bantamweight showdown. Despite fighting only three times since Dec 2021, Aldo is still one of the most dangerous UFC fighters.
Aldo returned to the promotion after a two-year layoff in May 2024, defeating Johnathan Martinez by unanimous decision. His performance was respectable, as Aldo showcased his lightning-fast striking, even at 38 years old.
Aldo is back to face Bautista, who is coming off a trio of wins against Guido Cannetti by a Round 1 submission in March 2023, Da’Mon Blackshear by unanimous decision Aug. 2023, and Ricky Simon by unanimous decision in Jan. 2024.
Bautista might want to try and take down Aldo early on, but Aldo will use his 91 percent grappling defense to pick apart Bautista to a decision win.
Aldo by unanimous decision.
Raquel Pennington (16-9-0) vs. Julianna Pena (12-5-0)
The first of two title fights at UFC 307 features Raquel Pennington defending the Women’s Bantamweight Championship against former champion Julianna Pena.
Pennington won the vacant Bantamweight Championship when she defeated Maya Bueno Silva in Jan. 2024. Pennington is sort of an odd champion, as she has defeated her last six opponents mostly by decision. Still, she appears to have found her groove.
Pennington nearly outstruck Silva by nearly triple to win the title. Her 265 total strikes compared to Silva’s 95 paints a clear picture: Pennington can outpace almost anyone.
Pena is no slouch. She lost back-to-back matches against former champion and world-renowned women’s champion Amanda Nunes, so it’s hard to gauge if Pena is not at that champion level any longer.
This fight could go either way, but Pennington might just lean on her strong chin and out-strike Pena to the win.
Pennington by split decision.
Alex Pereira (11-2-0) vs. Khalil Roundtree Jr. (14-5-0)
Alex Pereira has been on a tear since entering the UFC. Though he won and then lost the middleweight title to Israel Idesanya, he moved to light heavyweight to blow through the competition at that weight class.
Pereira has beaten the best of the best in Jan Blachowicz, Jiří Procházka (twice), and Jamahal Hill. As it stands right now, Pereira might be the best fighter in the UFC.
Despite Pereira being at such a high level, he has a tough matchup in Roundtree. The challenger is a knockout artist who has slept three of his last four opponents. His most recent was against Anthony Smith in Dec. 2023.
Roundtree is being viewed as a “trap” opponent for Pereira meaning that he could sleep the champion if he is not ready. Still, Pereira has faced the top-notch knockout artists in the light heavyweight division, and no one has been able to touch him.
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Pereria is just too good right now and his innate ability to push forward and dominate opponents is too much to overlook. Expect a quick finish in this one.
Pereira by Round 1 TKO/KO.
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