Mandryk: Debate may reveal shared problem for Beck, Moe

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Perhaps the first thing Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe and NDP Leader Carla Beck should recognize about Wednesday’s nerve-wracking 2024 leaders’ debate is that it won’t likely matter as much as they might think.

This isn’t the high-stakes event we witnessed south of the border in both U.S. presidential debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, then Trump and Kamala Harris.

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In places like Saskatchewan, where political lines have long been drawn between left and right, seldom — if ever — has it come down to the leaders’ debate.

But under the TV lights in the rotunda of the legislature on Wednesday night, it might not feel that way.

Perhaps the second important lesson Moe and Beck can take from past Saskatchewan leaders’ debates is that it’s always accompanied by an inescapable feeling that it’s more important than it probably is.

There’s always a lot of self-imposed pressure on the leader … not to mention the added pressure imposed by others.

Past history of Saskatchewan leaders’ debates suggests every utterance is scrutinized — not just by those of us with a front row seat, but also by those who have invested heavily in the outcome of election campaigns. The pressure to not let down the party can be immense.

Sask. Party members still privately grumble that a tense debate performance by Elwin Hermanson in 2003 cost them that election, when in reality, massive holes in their platform on key issues like Crown corporation privatization suggested this party would not yet govern.

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New Democrats will point to ineffectively over-aggressive debate performances by Dwain Lingenfelter in 2011 and Cam Broten in 2016, respectively, when again, in reality they had little chance against the naturally likeable Brad Wall at a time when voters had long decided he deserved a second and third term as Saskatchewan premier.

Debates that probably matter little when it comes to election outcomes matter a lot to those involved in politics.

If the history of Saskatchewan debates tell us anything, it is that Moe and Beck will both have to overcome the fear of letting their respective parties down.

Perhaps there isn’t much they can do, but both can surely learn lessons from past leadership debates and apply them to an honest assessment of their own strengths and weaknesses.

Both should realize where they come from.

As with every Saskatchewan leaders’ debate since 2003, we will see a new Opposition leader who has never been on this stage before, battling an incumbent premier.

That affords Moe a position of strength compared with Beck — the latest less-known Opposition leader claiming she is ready to lead the province. A recent Insightrix opinion poll suggests she is still not that well known by voters … and perhaps not as well liked as she needs to be.

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Past leaders’ debates reveal that Opposition leaders are heavily scrutinized — perhaps even more than premiers. Beck will be the first woman on this Saskatchewan stage in 30 years — so, sadly, there may be an added level of scrutiny.

It’s never easy for any Opposition leader to walk the line between aggressively taking on the premier and still being seen as likeable, especially when they’re assessed on every little thing, like whether they jumped in too quickly or paused too long.

But Moe may face similar challenges.

Also facing a slip in popularity in recent polls, he must find a way to defend his record against potentially aggressive attacks while remaining calm, reasonable and still likeable.

That may be as big a challenge (or perhaps even bigger) than the one Beck faces.

Again, all this may make little difference to the Oct. 28 outcome.

But Wednesday’s pressure cooker may demonstrate how tough the job they’re vying for actually is.

Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.

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