Momentum for an Australian republic has receded, the Labor government shuffled away the minister appointed to it, and any prospect of politicians pushing to change the constitution – described by one historian as now being “frozen” – is distant at best.
The biggest backers of an Australian head of state concede the challenges they face, but also claim the arrival this week of King Charles and Queen Camilla may be the shot in the arm their campaign needs.
It will be wall-to-wall media coverage of the royal couple visiting Australian landmarks, meeting well-wishers and being feted by dignitaries – and an “opportunity” to make it the last visit from a British monarch, according to the Australian Republican Movement.
“The more we see various aspects of the royal tour, the more we’re reminded the role of head of state serves a democratic purpose. They should be working in Australia full-time, working for Australians, and accountable to us,” the ARM co-chair Esther Anatolitis says.
“It doesn’t make sense.”
But it’s more difficult than that, according to historian Dr Benjamin Jones, who says republicans face “a battle on two fronts”: winning public support, and getting a future government to hold a referendum.
Momentum has ‘clearly receded’
The ARM’s 2023 research found that 92% of Australians are open to becoming a republic, and 60% would prefer an Australian head of state to Charles (Guardian Essential polling in May 2023, after Charles’s coronation, found 54% of Australians said they would vote yes in a republic referendum and 46% no).
Republic supporters say it’s a strong base to start from, and that attention on Charles’s visit may stir the conversation about whether a modern Australia should remained tied to the British monarchy.
Philip Benwell, chair of the Australian Monarchist League, counters that the royal visit will only increase support for the monarchy. Charles, in a letter dated March 2024 and addressed to the ARM, said a republic is “for the Australian public to decide”.
But the political reality, especially considered in light of the visit coming exactly one year on from the unsuccessful voice referendum, is that the prospect of a referendum on an Australian republic is unlikely to be seriously considered for a generation.
Labor’s subsequent dumping of a dedicated minister for the republic has not helped.
“Where we are now, [momentum] has clearly receded a little, as it was always going to,” admits Peter FitzSimons, a former chair of the ARM.
“I thought things would be difficult for the republic movement if it failed. Sadly I was correct.”
FitzSimons pays tribute to the organisation’s new leadership and says the royal visit will highlight the “absurdity” of retaining the British monarchy.
But he concedes: “The fact the current government is skittish about pushing hard on the republic right now is not surprising, given the 40% return back on a fairly simple notion that Indigenous people deserve a voice.”
A ‘frozen’ constitution
The Albanese government, after the 2022 election, had implicitly tied the two constitutional proposals – an Indigenous voice and a republic – together.
Only eight of 45 referendums proposed since Australian federation have succeeded, with change requiring a majority of voters in a majority of states. Prevailing political wisdom in Australia has long stated constitutional change is impossible without bipartisan support; failure of the voice referendum prompted speculation among some veteran political observers that a referendum may never again be successful.
The republic referendum in 1999 received 45% support. But Kos Samaras, director of Redbridge polling, says Australia will probably see different results in future votes.
“The country is far more diverse, with people having many connections that don’t originate from the UK,” he says.
“When this is tested eventually, depending on the model, the notion that the country has the same bond to a monarchy from a country where less than a majority of Australians have an ancestral link – it’s hard to think that will hold up.”
The real challenge is changing the constitution at the moment, says Dr Benjamin Jones, lecturer in history at Central Queensland University, whose research focuses on Australian republicanism.
“Republicans need to think creatively about this issue of how to unfreeze the frozen constitution.”
Labor’s national party platform has long supported a republic, and prime minister Anthony Albanese is a longtime backer. The then-assistant minister for the republic, Matt Thistlethwaite, told Guardian Australia in 2022 he was working towards being “ready to go in a second term of an Albanese government”.
In January this year, after the voice referendum and while still holding the republic portfolio, Thistlethwaite admitted it was “a lot harder” to propose a second referendum on the monarchy, but that the government “aren’t giving up”.
“The current method of selecting our head of state is undemocratic, it doesn’t represent modern Australian values, and that’s something we want to begin a discussion with Australians on in the longer term,” he told the ABC at the time.
Monarchist groups were agitated by Labor’s appointment of Thistlethwaite in 2022, which prominent monarchist Eric Abetz criticised as “a taxpayer-funded head start” on a potential referendum.
But the position was abolished in a ministerial reshuffle in July, after the voice defeat in October 2023. In July, while announcing the reshuffle and cancellation of the republic portfolio, Albanese distanced himself from further attempts at constitutional change. “I intended to have one referendum”, he said, referencing the voice.
Political observers theorised the Albanese government wouldn’t propose constitutional change again, and that subsequent governments could be scared off future referendums for years to come – including another vote on the republic.
“But it ain’t remotely over,” FitzSimons says .
Finding the moment
Anatolitis says the ARM stood back to allow “clear air” for the voice referendum, but now wanted to begin campaigning for change again.
“We need to build our movement to find our moment for a referendum,” she says.
“We hope there’s a good foundation there for future bipartisanship for a referendum, but to get there we need strong public conversation. That was why it’s so important to reinvigorate that conversation by taking it to regular people.
“It’s been 11 years since a monarch visited. These visits are a really important opportunity to remind everyone that monarchy is what our democracy is subject to … it really jars with who we are as Australians today, that our head of state is a king from a different country.”
The ARM launched a tongue-in-cheek media campaign ahead of the visit, calling it the “farewell tour” of the British monarchy – claiming it is “time to give the royal wave goodbye”. It channels the promotional material of the final tour of a rock band, complete with T-shirts and posters.
Benwell, from the Monarchist League, calls it “mumbo jumbo” and “disrespectful”.
The ARM estimates a majority of politicians back an Australian republic; a “parliamentary friends for an Australian head of state” group counts more than 30 members including government ministers Katy Gallagher, Julie Collins, Bill Shorten and Matt Keogh, plus opposition frontbenchers Simon Birmingham and David Coleman.
Gallagher, the finance minister, and NSW Liberal party president Jason Falinski have both formerly chaired that group.
But Jones argues Australia’s adversarial political system, and the high bar for constitutional change, gives little incentive for bipartisanship.
“The much easier fight is to convince people that Australia should have an Australian head of state. But it’s too tempting for the opposition to put egg on the government’s face by arguing against their proposal,” Jones says.
“If I was leading the republican movement, I’d be putting my effort into winning over Liberal supporters and politicians, to break that nexus.”
Samaras said it is difficult for Labor governments to win change on “holy grail” conservative causes such as tax reform, and includes a republic on that list, suggesting a new referendum could only succeed if put forward by the Coalition.
Benwell, of the Australian Monarchist League, agrees.
“For any referendum to pass, it should be introduced by a Coalition government with the support of Labor. If it’s introduced by Labor, whatever formal support from the Coalition, they will still be divided on that because they allow a conscience vote,” he says.
But asked if he thinks a republic referendum is out of the question, Benwell says he isn’t so sure.
“We’re always preparing. You can never tell – after the next election, who knows.”
