Guest column: An Israeli victory will be short-lived

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By: Gwynne Dyer

Binyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, has launched his invasion of Lebanon. As usual, in the opening stages of Israeli incursions into that fragile country, the signs and portents look good for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

The initial softening-up process left thousands of Hezbollah’s senior and mid-level leaders killed or maimed and a significant portion of the organization’s huge missile inventory destroyed in their launch sites. Iran’s gesture of support, 180 ballistic missiles fired at Israel on Oct. 1, did little damage.

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Moreover, Tehran is clearly not interested in a major war with Israel, let alone with Israel’s ally and protector, the United States. The regime said after launching those missiles at Israeli military targets that the score for Israel’s recent assassinations of Hezbollah’s leader Hasan Nasrullah and Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh is now settled.

Netanyahu, of course, is brimming with confidence and vows that “Iran will pay a heavy price” for its salvoes of missiles. Indeed, he is so convinced that this is his moment of triumph, he is taking on Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran (population 88 million and the proud possessor of lots of enriched uranium) all at once.

The whole of Israel is on a victory high after the striking success of last month’s attacks on Hezbollah and the interception of most of Iran’s and Hezbollah’s retaliatory missile launches against Israel.

Jubilant former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett recently said out loud what Netanyahu clearly also really believes but cannot say: “This is the greatest opportunity in 50 years to change the face of the Middle East.” He urged Netanyahu to go after Iran’s nuclear facilities and “fatally cripple this terrorist regime.”

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It looks and sounds like the jubilation Israelis felt after defeating all their country’s Arab neighbours in 1967. The high is unlikely to last as long this time, but even if this turns out to be a real and lasting military victory rather than just the first round in a much longer struggle, a decisive outcome is not possible.

At some point the shooting will stop, and Israel still will be a country that rules over seven million Jews with full rights of citizenship and seven million Arabs, some with limited rights but most with none.

It will continue to be surrounded by four countries containing 159 million Arabs. Two of those countries have signed peace treaties with Israel, but popular opinion in all four still sees the Jewish state as the enemy. Moreover, regimes can be overthrown and peace treaties can be broken.

And Iran will still be there too. Even if the war that seems to be getting underway now should end in the overthrow of the current Iranian regime — a real though small possibility — any new Iranian regime that relies on popular support would probably also see Israel as a threat and an enemy.

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One might add that Israel has had nuclear weapons for about 60 years, and Iran could have them in six months any time it chooses to defy the United States. Its current forbearance is based solely on its confidence that neither the U.S. nor Israel will try to destroy its threshold nuclear weapons status.

This is the context in which Israel was born and in which it still lives. The idea that it can break out of these constraints by military force is a delusion, and even Netanyahu may not believe it.

His primary goal, after all, is not strategic. It’s merely a tactical manoeuvre designed to keep him in power and avoid jail.

At the moment, it sounds deluded to say this futile, bloody nonsense will only end when Israelis and Palestinians both accept the borders defined by the end of the 1948 war are legitimate and permanent.

But this is not delusion. It is a cold, hard fact.

Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist based in London, England.

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