Last month’s report on sentencing from a group of former heads of the judiciary ended with a stark warning that the country faces a future of “US-style mass incarceration” – overcrowded prisons, mounting costs and deepening social inequalities – “without urgent remedial action to address sentence inflation”.
The gap between the two countries remains large. The UK has the highest per-capita prison population in western Europe. But the 0.1% of the population that is incarcerated in England, Wales and Scotland is still only a seventh of the 0.7% imprisoned in the US (Northern Ireland’s rate is far lower). Still, with the prison population of England and Wales predicted to rise from 88,000 (in August) to 106,000 by 2028, the judges are right to sound the alarm.
Ministers know they have a problem. So did their Conservative predecessors. Spending by the prison and probation service has ballooned to £4.6bn – around three-quarters of which goes on prisons, including £100m spent on keeping more than 2,000 men over 70 locked up. Conditions in many jails are appalling. The latest urgent notification from the prisons inspector, Charlie Taylor, regarding Manchester, described drones delivering drugs through windows that have been broken to enable this.
While Labour’s early release scheme was a sensible opening move, it has not been enough to curb rising prisoner numbers. In fact, the decision to let magistrates hand down longer sentences of up to 12 months is expected to further inflate the prison population. More radical changes will depend on the independent sentencing review promised in the manifesto.
The former Conservative justice secretary David Gauke is the favourite to lead this, and should command cross-party support. This matters because both parties bear responsibility for the sentence inflation of the past 30 years. The lack of alternatives to custody and low public confidence in existing ones have fuelled a widespread belief that voters – along with the rightwing press – prefer harsh sentencing. As a result, successive prime ministers have refused to commit to the penal reform programme that is urgently needed. Under Boris Johnson, sentences were increased, and rules changed so that some violent offenders must now serve two-thirds of their sentence behind bars, rather than half, before being considered for release.
The destructive consequences of the partial privatisation of the probation service were recognised when this was reversed. But further reform has been ducked. Probation should be taken out of the Prison Service and locally embedded instead – with stronger links to councils, housing providers and charities. Investment in the workforce would be part of this process. Effective use of technology could also make community supervision work better. Given the problems with short sentences, including high reoffending rates, robust alternatives including tags, curfews and harm prevention orders should be prioritised.
Victims’ needs must also be considered. Campaigns against perceived leniency are one reason for sentence inflation. If the public is to be persuaded that alternatives to custody are meaningful, the service offered to victims must be improved. Unacceptable delays in the trial process contribute to a general sense of grievance at a broken system. While the last word on sentences belongs to judges, the public’s views on crime and punishment must be taken seriously if confidence in the system is to be renewed. Good communication is crucial. As a former head of the Crown Prosecution Service, Sir Keir Starmer has relevant expertise and should be bold in pushing through change.
