Another raging turner is expected, nay demanded, for the deciding Test between Pakistan and England in Rawalpindi tomorrow though the visitors appear to have gone very traditional and un-Bazball about it and picked a third spinner, Rehan Ahmed, in place of the impressive pace bowler Brydon Carse.
It is an apples for oranges selection based on perceived pitch conditions except that Carse has created chances galore in the first two Tests and with nine wickets has been the pick of England’s bowlers quick and slow. Even when the second Test, won by Pakistan, was played on a pitch worn away by five days’ play in the first Test (which England won), Carse looked the man most likely to take a wicket.
Captains like to have bowling options when trying to winkle out sides, though there is an old saw that says if a pitch is spinning or seaming you need fewer bowlers to exploit those conditions not more, the extra reinforcements usually proving surplus to requirements if the others do a half-decent job. Bazball won many fans by being counter-intuitive but a third spinner here is straight out of the Captain Sensible playbook.
It is not as if Ahmed, a wrist-spinner with all the added expense that usually entails, is likely to keep it tight and maintain pressure.
To be of value he will need to strike without bowling too many overs, the bulk of the tweaking to be done, you would expect, by England’s finger spinners Jack Leach and Shoaib Bashir.
It may be that England feel Pakistan’s right-handed batters to be more aggressive than their left-handers and want another bowler to spin the ball away from them.
The right-handers certainly appeared to target Bashir in the second Test for some boundary treatment, the off-spinner’s stock ball making it easier for them to hit with impunity. And yet, if Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum believe Bashir to be their main spinner for the Ashes tour next winter, then he is going to have to learn to cope with right-handers giving him some tap.
Carse could still have played in place of Gus Atkinson, recalled for this Test in place of Matthew Potts after being rested for the previous one. Atkinson will be England’s sole specialist pace bowler in Rawalpindi, captain and all-rounder Ben Stokes being the only other bowler able to exceed 75mph. Choosing between Atkinson and Carse is a trickier decision which previous captains might have left to ‘gut feel.’
Since his debut last summer, Atkinson has taken 38 wickets in seven Tests, the best start to an England Test career since pitches were fully covered almost 50 years ago.
Even in mostly home conditions that is exceptional, yet Carse has been a revelation in Pakistan where the usual jeopardies to batting are reduced.
Before defeat in the last match, England had won four Tests in succession in Pakistan, three of them two years ago. Prior to that, their win rate was a paltry two Tests in 50 years, so Stokes and McCullum have 
certainly won the right to make whatever call they like, staid and predictable though Ahmed’s inclusion seems from this remove.
Still, Carse’s exploits, and his willingness to run through brick walls for his team, have surely made him a shoo-in for the Australia tour next winter – Bazball’s supreme challenge being to win the Ashes there – and a rarer bowler than you may think.
To do well in Australia you need batters who are strong off the back foot and bowlers with pace and accuracy, as well as a spinner who can keep it tight while the quicks have a rest. So far England have shown they have pace in their bowling ranks but not always the drip-drip accuracy that was Glenn McGrath’s speciality. At least not until Carse showed up in Pakistan.
McGrath averaged 6.2 wickets a Test against England in Australia by hammering away, the kind of success that has been beyond most of our bowlers save for John Snow in 1970/71 and James Anderson in 2010/11 – England’s sole Ashes victory there for 38 years.
You see when the Kookaburra ball goes soft in Australia, which it pretty much does after a dozen overs, hitting a hard length on a fifth stump line is about the only way to create pressure. Bowlers have to plug away but at full bore, the aim being to find the bat’s edge through some extra bounce while simultaneously drying up the runs. I reckon Carse can do that with enough pace to sit batters on their behinds when needed.
I reckon he could have done it in Rawalpindi, too, despite the heating lamps and rakes said to have been employed to coax some (spinning) life into the pitch there.
As the great Shane Warne always said, if the ball seams it will also spin. Presumably the corollary applies too, something England seem to have overlooked in favour of loading their ranks with spin.
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