Moe continues calls to avoid vote-splitting, experts say risk is low

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Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is worried about vote splitting.

In particular, he’s worried about ceding territory to the Saskatchewan United Party (SUP) as it fields 31 candidates in its first outing during a general election.

The right-of-centre party first emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic and has eschewed political labels, but some of their members would be considered libertarian or federal Conservative supporters.

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During a platform launch earlier this month, the SUP announced hopes of winning “two seats plus” come the Oct. 28 election and argued the need for a party that brings a fresh perspective to the role of Opposition.

“Vote early, don’t be a vote splitter,” urged Moe from Prince Albert on Tuesday.

But that wasn’t the first time he has made those feelings clear. In late September, he stated that there are only two parties than can form government, his and the Saskatchewan NDP.

“The success that a party like the SUP might have, is to split the vote and allow the NDP to come up the middle,” said Moe at the time. “You can vote for the NDP directly by putting an X beside them or you can vote for them indirectly by splitting the vote.”

And his concern goes back even further, to the summer of 2023 following the results of three byelections. While the NDP picked up two seats, Moe focused on his party’s victory in Lumsden-Morse and the runner-up SUP candidate Jon Hromek.

Now party leader, Hromek received 1,145 votes, representing 22.7 per cent of the 5,053 total ballots cast in that byelection.

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But for all of Moe’s pleas, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto Nelson Wiseman says the Sask. Party leader may be making a mountain out of a molehill.

“Byelections are notoriously unrepresentative of the public,” Wiseman said in a recent interview. “The most motivated go out and everybody voting in that byelection knew that no matter what the result was, whoever won, (the) Saskatchewan Party would still be the government.”

For perspective, 8,506 ballots were counted in the Lumsden-Morse constituency in the 2020 general election, with the Sask. Party receiving 6,243 votes.

Regardless of whether the SUP makes gains in next week’s election or not, the party has already celebrated policy changes made or promised by the Sask. Party that align with its views: The Parent’s Bill of Rights, otherwise known as Bill 137 or the pronoun consent law, and more recently, Moe’s commitment to enact a change-room policy that would ban “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls.”

“I am proud to see the Sask Party utilizing the female safe spaces policy from the Sask United Blueprint for Change,” stated Hromek in a news release issued last week. But he went on to criticize the Sask. Party for bringing “gender ideologies” into the provincial curriculum, something he feels “should be altogether removed.”

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As for how much this will move the needle for voters, Wiseman is skeptical.

“This isn’t an issue for the overwhelming majority of people,” he said, pointing to more material concerns many voters have, including but not limited to education, health care, the cost of living.

Part of what the Sask. Party is dealing with after 17 years in power is a degree of fatigue from voters, he added, as well as a growing list of things people are frustrated over.

“The longer a party is in power, the more chinks it gets in its armour and that’s now beginning to wear, it has been for a while, on the Moe government. Just as it did on the past NDP government,” said Wiseman.

Considering that up until now, the Sask. Party has largely avoided topics that veered into the culture war territory, University of Regina politics and international studies professor Tom McIntosh says it’s odd now for the party to pivot messaging to something like the promised change-room policy.

“When the premier announced that this was his No. 1 priority, the first thing I thought of was ‘what happened with the pronoun bill?’ ” he said, calling it a victory for the SUP.

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At the same time, the proposed change-room policy undercuts part of the rationale for SUP’s existence. To McIntosh, it’s a way to bring people back to the Sask. Party who may have been looking to vote SUP, but he’s unsure if it will make much of a difference.

Still, there is jockeying for position on the right of the political spectrum in Saskatchewan.

“What I find fascinating is that this seems to be born of a frustration that the Sask. Party is not conservative enough,” said McIntosh. Two former Sask. Party MLAs — Greg Brkich and Dennis Allchurch — said as much when they spoke about their decision to join the SUP last month.

When it comes to the SUP’s actual affect on the election, both McIntosh and Wiseman said it was too early to say if the tail was wagging the dog. But the presence of a more right-wing party in Saskatchewan is a new development that has already impacted the Sask. Party, which has known comfortable majority governments since 2007.

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Polling has the SUP at around three per cent of the total vote with no seats projected, according to 338 Canada.

In fact, from McIntosh’s perspective, there aren’t any ridings that appear set for similar vote shares as were seen in Lumsden-Morse last year. And he questions to what extent the SUP will even factor in to vote-splitting in the coming election because of how dominant the Sask. Party is in rural ridings.

“Look at Lumsden, or any of the much more rural ridings. The margins of victory for the Sask. Party are so large that even if you give the SUP 25 per cent, you’re still winning half the vote,” he pointed out.

And while polls project that the Sask. Party will form government yet again, there is still a possibility that it sees a decline in its vote province wide, a variable that could trigger a leadership race.

If that happens, McIntosh said he could see many of the SUP members taking out Sask. Party memberships to try to put forward and elect “what they would call a ‘true conservative’ candidate.”

The 30th general election is less than a week away, but residents have the option to vote cast their ballots early. Advance polls opened Tuesday and will be available in every constituency until Oct. 26 (10 a.m.-7 p.m. ). There will be no voting on Sunday, Oct. 27. The last chance to vote will be on Monday, Oct. 28 (9 a.m.-8 p.m.).

alsalloum@postmedia.com

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