Ontario flush with cash, Ford orders Dougie Dollars payments

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The Ford government is bringing in cash faster than they can spend it, which is why they are promising a $200 cheque to every resident come January.

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While the Ford government is promoting their Dougie Dollars payoff to voters, there is also a drop in the expected deficit and plenty of spending increases.

The fall economic statement shows the province is doing so well that they are expected to bring in nearly $7 billion more than forecast in last April’s budget.

That includes $40 billion in provincial sales tax revenue, up from just $28 billion four years ago. It also includes an estimated $4 billion more in personal income tax than predicted last spring and an extra $4.8 billion from corporate taxes.

That’s good enough for the projected deficit for 2024-25 to drop from the $9.8 billion that was the target in the spring budget to just $6.6 billion now.

The truth is it wouldn’t be shocking for Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy to announce come the spring that the budget is balanced. Hidden in the province’s revenue projections is a projected $4.3-billion drop in what is labelled “other government revenue,” a drop of $700 million from government enterprises such as the LCBO and the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation.

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There is a very good chance that when the Ford government tables their budget next spring, those revenue streams are up instead of down and the budget is balanced just before a possible early election.

Those are the kinds of tricks that Paul Martin used to play with the budget when he was Jean Chretien’s finance minister, and this document reads like an old school Chretien budget. While the big-ticket item is the $3-billion tax rebate – aka the $200 Dougie Dollars cheques going out – there are increases in spending elsewhere.

Health is seeing a spending increase of half a billion over last year, social services will see a $600-million increase, while education will see an increase of $400 million over last year.

That is pure Chretien politics at play.

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Spending increases in the major categories, a drop in the projected deficit, and a tax rebate to the middle class and those working hard to join it as someone else in Ottawa might say.

Ford’s mini-budget isn’t designed to make fiscal hawks who care only about deficits and debt happy. Nor is it designed to make those who want every dollar invested in health care and education happy.

He is pitching at the vast middle who will be happy to get the cheques come January while knowing there are spending increases in areas that matter.

Call it crass politics if you will, it’s likely to work.

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The Ontario New Democrats will scream and stomp their feet and claim Ford is cutting spending when he clearly is not. The NDP under Marit Stiles don’t seem to matter to Ford, he ignores them and focuses all his attention on Bonnie Crombie and the Liberals.

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Crombie, meanwhile, has given Ford an abundance of material to work with on his claim that she will hike taxes.

She has said in the past that no one would notice if the 10.7-cent-per-litre gas tax cut were reversed. In the same breath she also said that no one would notice if tolls were put back on Highways 412 and 418 or if the licence plate sticker fee was brought back.

Crombie also recently mused about bringing in a municipal sales tax.

Forget about the musings she and her advisors have made about carbon taxes or cap and trade systems, her recent musings on hiking taxes and fees won’t fly.

The fall economic statement is a snapshot of the province’s fiscal health at the moment. It’s also a highly political document and on both fronts, it shows the Ford government with a healthy lead.

blilley@postmedia.com

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