These late-deciding voters could swing the election: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, we got back in touch with some of the undecided voters from our last NBC News poll to see how they plan to make up their minds. Plus, “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker examines how every controversial comment and verbal gaffe from the closing days could matter in a tight race.

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The final undecided voters could sway the election. They’re not wild about their choice.

By Alex Seitz-Wald, Annemarie Bonner, Bridget Bowman and Faith Wardwell

Procrastination is usually frowned upon. But in a narrowly divided presidential election, voters who have put off making a decision until the last minute could find themselves with the power to decide the future of the country. 

Both candidates and their outside allies have spent millions of dollars trying to find and reach the relative handful of dawdlers, late deciders and genuinely torn voters who are still unsure about how (or whether) to cast their ballots — precious needles in the gargantuan haystack of the American electorate who often have little interest in being found by political campaigns and have major problems with one or both major parties.

 The ranks of the stragglers are dwindling quickly. In NBC News’ early October national survey, just 4% of registered voters said they didn’t want to make a choice between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. When NBC News contacted 40 of those again this week, 17 agreed to interviews and just five said they were still making up their minds. 

Of the ones who have decided since surveyed three weeks ago, seven said they are voting for a third-party candidate or plan to write in another name. Two declined to share whom they plan to vote for. One said they plan to vote for Trump, another that they are likely to vote for Harris, and another plans to not vote at all.

Late-deciding voters broke for Trump in 2020 and 2016, with some analysts and strategists in both campaigns crediting them for electing Trump eight years ago.

How anyone could still be undecided a week out from a critical election can be difficult to fathom for supporters of either Trump or Harris. But these late deciders have their reasons for dragging their feet.

Most are unhappy with their options on the ballot and the state of the country more generally. They feel conflicted, especially about Trump, with cross-pressures on different policies and their impressions of the candidates pulling them in opposite directions. Many pay little attention to politics and say they haven’t had time to do their research and reflection. And some say they wait until they are in their voting precinct to decide. 

Here’s what these voters had to say about how they plan to make their decisions →

Everything matters in a close presidential race

By Kristen Welker

A string of controversies, gaffes and eyebrow-raising remarks have dominated the last two weeks of the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.  

There was former Trump chief of staff John Kelly saying Trump praised Adolf Hitler while in office. We heard the racist and crude remarks at Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden. President Joe Biden appeared to refer to Trump’s supporters as “garbage,” a remark the White House quickly tried to clean up. 

And on Thursday night, Trump used violent rhetoric when talking about one of his foremost Republican critics, former Rep. Liz Cheney.

So which of these comments will matter the most in deciding who wins or loses? Here’s one likely answer: all of the above. 

In my years working as a political journalist, I firmly believe that everything matters in a close race. That was certainly true in 2012, when Superstorm Sandy slammed into the East Coast with just days to go in the contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

 It was true in 2016, when then-FBI Director James Comey’s intervention in the final 12 days of the Trump-Hillary Clinton race moved poll numbers.

And it was true in 2020, when the pandemic and debates played an oversize role in the election featuring Trump and Joe Biden. 

One additional point here: We are going to release our final national NBC News poll on “Meet the Press” this Sunday. One of the sets of questions the poll will be asking is about whether voters have changed their minds between Trump and Harris in the last few weeks — and if so, why?

Stay tuned for the results on Sunday.

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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