Donald Trump has suffered a blow to his campaign, with three new polls indicating he trails opponent Kamala Harris in key battleground states crucial for his path to victory.
According to the latest set of Marist polls, conducted between October 27 and 30, Harris is leading Trump in the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
For Donald Trump to win the election, he needs to flip one of these three Blue Wall states from Harris. That is because if Harris manages to hold on to these three states that Biden won in 2020, plus get the highly likely single electoral college vote from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, then she will have got exactly 270 electoral college votes needed to win the election, as the map below shows.
Polls have been very tight in all three states, with FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker currently showing that Harris leads Michigan and Wisconsin by less than a point, while Trump leads Pennsylvania by 0.7 points—after Harris was previously leading him in the state.
Meanwhile, individual polls in all three states have fluctuated, with candidates generally staying within a 3-point margin. However, the four latest surveys from Pennsylvania indicate Trump holding a lead of 1 to 3 points among likely voters.
But the latest Marist polls show a more positive outlook for the current vice president, with Harris ahead by 3 points in Michigan, and 2 points in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Her lead in all 3 states is within the survey’s margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.
It comes as Harris has opened up a lead among independent voters in all 3 states, according to the poll. In Michigan, she leads Trump among independents by 6 points, up from 2 points in the previous Marist poll from September. In Wisconsin, she also leads among independents by 6 points, up from the four-point edge she had in early September. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, Harris has seen a huge increase in her support among independents, with the vice president now 15 points ahead after Trump led her among independent voters by 4 points in September.
Harris is outperforming Joe Biden‘s 2020 performance among independents by 6 points in Pennsylvania, while her lead among independents is equal to the one obtained by Biden in Michigan in 2020. In Wisconsin, she is still well below the double-digit lead Biden had against Trump in 2020.
Evan Vucci
Overall, Harris’ margins in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have increased since September, when the previous Marist poll showed she was just 1 point ahead in Wisconsin, while the two candidates were tied in Pennsylvania. But her lead has decreased by 2 points in Michigan since September, when she was 5 points ahead.
Nonetheless, “driving the presidential numbers in Michigan is that there are more voters who have a better impression of Harris than Trump,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “Trump’s favorability rating is upside down. His negative rating significantly exceeds his positive score.”
In Michigan, 43 percent of residents have a favorable opinion of Trump compared with 53 percent who have an unfavorable view of him. For Harris, her favorability rating stands at 48 percent, while 47 percent have a negative view of her.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
With less than a week to go, the election looks closer than ever. Polling aggregators currently suggest that Harris is winning the popular vote, while Trump is on track to win the Electoral College, which would send him back to the Oval Office. Pollster Nate Silver‘s forecast shows that Harris is 1.1 points ahead, with a 74 percent chance of winning the popular vote. However, owing to Trump’s position in the swing states, his forecast shows that Harris has a 46 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to Trump’s 54 percent chance.
Meanwhile, 538 shows Harris 1.4 points ahead nationally but gives Trump a 52 percent chance of winning to Harris’ 48 percent. According to both aggregators, Trump is ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania, which would give him enough Electoral College votes to send him to the White House.
However, if Harris won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, as well as Nebraska’s 2nd district, she would pick up enough Electoral College votes to win the election.
Silver’s forecast shows that Trump has a 24.4 percent chance of winning all seven swing states on November 5.
