US presidential election: Swing states as battlegrounds to determine winner of US presidency

Doha: In all US presidential elections, attention mostly pivots toward a limited number of US states. These states stand on a dividing line between the Republican Party (GOP) and Democratic Party (DEM) known as awing states or purple states.

Thus, in areas where voting results can be easily anticipated, voters have the power to change the course of the presidential race during critical moments, determining which candidate will return to the White House as President of the United States.

These states, which combine contradictions in political loyalties, pose a critical battleground between GOP and DEM to determine the winner of the US presidency for a four-year term.

With the date of the U.S. presidential election approaching on Nov. 5, 2024, competition is surging between the Democratic candidate, US Vice President Kamala Harris, and the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, thus evoking the significance of swing states in ascertaining the election results through gaining voters who could change their position in each ballot cycle.

US states are divided into three major colors, each reflecting their political loyalty. Nevertheless, since the late twentieth century, states that typically vote for the GOP have been designated red, such as Alabama and Florida, which focus on smaller government and reduced taxes.

In contrast, states that tend to vote for the Democrats are typically designated blue, such as California and New York, which pursue progressive policies that support social justice and environmental protection, reflecting their dynamic population structures and liberal orientations. All fifty US states either exhibit republican and democratic orientations, or conservative and liberal categories simultaneously, as clearly demonstrated through results of the presidential election in each cycle.

Purple or swing states include those lacking firm loyalty to both GOP and DEM, as they are considered vital competing fields where all votes have double value. Subsequently, presidential candidates spend time in those states, as well as hundreds of millions of US dollars on canvassing activities using radio and TV media.

States purple map changes with each electoral cycle in response to candidates and their policies, prompting either dramatic transformations, or accurate modifications in the electoral dynamics.

Interestingly, six states are poised to experience swings in the 2024 elections, specifically in Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, highlighting the importance of adaptability in political strategies.

There is a combination of dynamic factors that trigger swing states to change their electoral loyalties from one cycle to another, mostly the demographic factors, since migration and altered population structure affect voters preferences.

Similarly, economic conditions in those US states have a significant impact. When unemployment rate surges and growth declines, voters tend to explore alternatives, such as placing confidence in parties and candidates who are capable of improving the economic situation and offering job opportunities, making the economy a central topic in electoral campaigns.

Social issues such as irregular immigration, health care and minority rights are foremost issues in re-configuring voters’ opinions, since they are increasingly interested in such issues.

For example, the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically impacted issues related to health care in the 2020 elections, making it the fundamental interest of voters, especially in swing states, as their fears grew about health care costs and the effectiveness of insurance systems.

Back then, voters who had been polled leaned toward supporting candidates who proffered clear-eyed and innovative plans to optimize health care services and minimize financial burdens, underscoring the centrality of this issue in shaping their electoral decisions.

In addition, immigration issues raise profound divisions in voters opinions, as they unevenly react to immigration policies, with some of them preferring strict surveillance on borders, while others countenance more tolerant policies toward immigrants, thus increasing intricacies of the electoral landscape in swing states. 

Regional and global issues have a profound impact on voters, particularly in swing states, where opinion polls give special significance to foreign policies that protect national security.

Global challenges, such as the incidents unfolding in the Middle East and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, flatly affect voters positions.

Mostly, voters are concerned with candidates responses to these issues and how their foreign policies impact US national security. Canvassing and candidates strategies help direct voters interests, as electoral campaigns invest significant resources in these states to attract undecided voters.

All these factors make swing states critical electoral battlegrounds that can change the balance of power in each election cycle, prompting candidates to adapt their campaign strategies to these dynamics.

Opinion polls for the US election in November significantly shape public opinion about this event and demonstrate the evolving political landscape.

Following the withdrawal of US President Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s candidacy last August, most opinion polls revealed that Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in many states, including some swing states.

However, other polls indicated a narrow lead for Trump, either at the state level or in certain swing states.

It is very premature to predict the likely candidate who will win the presidency based on polls during the race, due to the margin of error in the results.

Furthermore, incidents could arise to affect voters opinions, as there have been numerous polls in previous elections that proved the inaccuracy of these results, as seen in the 2016 and 2020 elections. This complicates matters and makes it difficult to speculate on the final results.

In a poll conducted by Gallup, Inc. on Aug. 29, 2024, there was a surge in enthusiasm among Democratic voters, reaching 78% following Harris’s candidacy, compared to 55% last March. Meanwhile, the percentage of enthusiasm among Republican voters was also noteworthy.

On the same day, a poll conducted by Fox News showed that 96% of Democratic voters supported Harris, while 94% of Republican voters supported Trump, with independent voters preferring Harris by a margin of 6%.

Another poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena College Research Institute (SCRI) on Aug.10, 2024, revealed an increase in voter satisfaction for Harris in swing states, namely Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, reaching 27%, compared to the same percentage last May.

At the state level, the FiveThirtyEight polls website revealed that Harris was ahead of Trump by an average of 3.5%, while other polls conducted by the Washington Post showed Trump leading by 2%.

Polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group at the end of last August clearly showed that both Harris and Trump were locked in a dead heat in three swing states in the Midwest.

Another poll conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the same month indicated that 29.4% of Muslim Americans intend to vote for Harris.

Swing states continue to draw voters interest with the approaching election in November 2024, and new states are likely to join this category. These states are projected to serve as platforms for conveying political messages and as vital indicators of the future of US politics.

Understanding the motives behind voting in these states will be key to shaping canvassing strategies, highlighting the importance of global and socioeconomic factors in influencing the opinions of US citizens.