CFL West final too close to call for TSN’s Paul LaPolice

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Paul LaPolice won Grey Cups coaching the Saskatchewan Roughriders and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. He knows the communities, the rivalry and the current CFL teams.

Asked which place he favoured, LaPolice demurs, as he does when asked to pick a winner in Saturday’s West final between the Prairie rivals.

“I don’t know,” said LaPolice, a longtime CFL coach who now works as a TSN analyst. “I really don’t. Who turns the ball over more won’t likely win. Sask. has a veteran quarterback, so does Winnipeg. They’re both playing well, they’re both good on defence.

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“Some weeks I do know. Last week I knew Toronto was gonna win, but I also thought B.C. was gonna win.”

Just after the Toronto Argonauts defeated the Ottawa Redblacks 58-38 in Saturday’s East semifinal, Saskatchewan defeated the B.C. Lions 28-19 in the West semifinal.

The Argonauts earned a trip to play the first-place Montreal Alouettes, the reigning Grey Cup champions. Saskatchewan visits the Blue Bombers, who have appeared in four straight Grey Cup games but lost the last two.

Winners advance to the Nov. 17 Grey Cup in Vancouver. LaPolice will be there in his broadcasting capacity with TSN, plus he’ll be analyzing this weekend’s games during his Coach’s Playbook segments on TV and YouTube.

In addition to describing the matchup of veteran quarterbacks — Winnipeg’s Zach Collaros and Saskatchewan’s Trevor Harris — a virtual saw-off, LaPolice believes Blue Bombers running back Brady Oliveira is equally matched by Saskatchewan’s two backs, A.J. Ouellette and Ryquell Armstead.

LaPolice said Winnipeg has a better offensive line, while Saskatchewan’s defensive line has been more impressive. Winnipeg’s defence is difficult to score against, while Saskatchewan’s back-end created a league-high 49 turnovers and its offence had only 23 giveaways.

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Most of the other position groups are pretty close, including the kickers, who are included in LaPolice’s Top 3 list of possible deciding factors.

“I have three keys I’m gonna talk about on Coach’s Playbook,” said LaPolice. “Number One is Captain Obvious that everybody knows: the turnover margin usually decides who wins the game.

“Number Two is this whole game is coming down to first downs. It’s critically important for both of these teams because Winnipeg has the best defence on second-and-longs, they simply don’t give up first downs. Saskatchewan is third-best. It’s going to be a long game for any offence that doesn’t get first-down production.”

Although Winnipeg’s weather forecast calls for higher-than-normal temperatures around 12C, with little wind or chance of rain, LaPolice thinks field goals will be vital in determining a winner. Saskatchewan’s Brett Lauther was seventh among regular kickers with a success rate of 82.8 per cent and Winnipeg’s Sergio Castillo was eighth (of nine) at 79.7.

“My third most important thing, especially if the weather is an issue, it’s gonna come down to the kicking game,” said LaPolice. “In about Week 11, Lauther had a couple terrible games and was the worst kicker in the CFL. Since that week he has gone 30-for-31, is the best kicker through the last 10 weeks of the season, and made five of six from 50 yards.

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“Castillo counters with 11, 50-yard field goals. That’s crazy! Teams take the ball at their 40-yard line (after a missed field goal), so you only need two first downs and he’s in field-goal range. That’s what I think it will come down to.”

There may be other deciding factors, but LaPolice truly doesn’t have a favoured team, franchise or community.

“I won a Cup at both places and I was a head coach at Winnipeg; I worked there three different times,” said LaPolice. “More of my career has been in Winnipeg, but I don’t get the Winnipeg job without getting to two Grey Cups in three years with the Riders.

“There’s a lot of good memories. I always say you wanna coach at a place that cares. In Sask. and Winnipeg, they care.”

LaPolice coached in U.S. colleges before starting his CFL career in 2000 with Toronto. Then came stints in Hamilton, Winnipeg, Toronto, Saskatchewan, Winnipeg as head coach and returning four years later as offensive co-ordinator, before his last gig as Ottawa’s head coach ended in 2022.

He was Saskatchewan’s receivers coach during its 2007 championship run and Winnipeg’s offensive co-ordinator for the 2019 Grey Cup. There may be more coaching offers ahead, but LaPolice is content with his media work on the sidelines, in the broadcast booth, on the TSN panel and prognosticating, even if he’s not picking a winner this time.

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