By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile
Cycling friend Roger and I biked in the Hocking County hills several early mornings an hour plus before sunrise. I was in awe of the beauty of the stars on those early, clear mornings. However, we were frustrated the previously seen beaver hutch could not be observed since it was so dark, just as producers can be frustrated when harvesting in the dark, hoping they can see any hazards before danger strikes.
New daily price limits for the grains went into effect Nov. 1 and will be in place until April 30, 2025. The daily limit for soybeans was reduced to 70 cents from the previous limit of 85 cents. Corn had a daily limit of 30 cents and the wheat daily limit of 40 cents. These are the same limits in place for the preceding 6 months. The new daily limits change every six months because of policy changes at the CBOT several years ago. New daily limits take effect every Nov. 1 and May 1.
Grain movement in the first half of harvest was extremely brisk for much of Ohio this fall. Producers continued their trend of selling more soybeans than corn for movement during the fall harvest. Central Ohio producers moved a huge portion of soybeans due to the damage caused by the rains of Hurricane Helene during the last weekend of September. Many southern Ohio producers received rains of 3-5 inches during that period. Those rains along with above normal temperatures resulted in soybeans sprouting in the pod within days, causing damage to reach 10%-30% and higher. Many grain facilities quickly raised their discounts for soybean damage literally overnight as they found themselves in unchartered territory. Producers found themselves moving more soybeans to town due to the additional risk of storing damaged soybeans and the huge unknown of what quality would be months down the road.
Hurricane Helene caused widespread damage to the U.S. Southeast with Asheville, North Caroline and its population of nearly 100,000 residents, taking a direct hit as their water system was completely inoperable. As of mid-October, water services have been restored to at least 90% of its customers. Western North Carolina rain totals ranged from 10-29 inches, a number hard to fathom considering it is over 300 miles from the Atlantic Ocean.
Since the 2018 Farm Bill expired on Sept. 30, many have raised questions about when a new bill would be passed by Congress. Don’t expect a new Farm Bill will be voted upon until Congress reconvenes in January 2025 which will include numerous new members. In addition, background numbers as to cost will have to be reevaluated, literally starting all over again.
Egypt is tendering for wheat the last few days of October as they hoped to secure its needs from Russia’s lowest price in the world. They want to buy on credit and make payments over several months. It is common for Egypt to aggressively seek bids from several countries.
Mexico continues to buy U.S. corn despite rhetoric for months they would not. From Oct. 1 to Nov. 1, Mexico in nine transactions purchased 3.3 million tons or 132.5 million bushels. It appears they want to have grain purchases on the books in case U.S. agricultural policy on grain exports took place.
Ohio crop insurance participants now have the October averaging period behind them for corn and soybeans. December CBOT corn had an average October price of $4.16, the beginning spring price was $4.66. November CBOT soybeans had an average October price of $10.03, the beginning spring price was $11.55. With corn and soybean prices declining from the spring price, those with Revenue Protection may have a claim that they did not expect. Claims will need to be filed timely with their crop insurance agents.
Corn and soybean yields for Ohio varied even more than in previous years. Producers with bins filled with corn and soybeans have benefitted with basis improvements in the last half of October. In those 2 weeks, soybean basis at some central Ohio locations has improved over 40 cents while the corn basis has improved at least 45 cents for one Ohio ethanol facility. Those rapid basis changes indicate that inbound bushels were below or even far below expectations by grain facilities. If your facility calls you with bids a few cents better than those posted bids, it will be extremely beneficial not to pounce on their first call.
Thought for the day. “The glory of gardening: hands in the dirt, head in the sun, heart with nature.” – Alfred Austin.
