How clubs assess injury risk at the AFL draft and why certain players slip down the pecking order

At the beginning of 2006 season Joel Selwood and Scott Gumbleton were at the pointy end of most recruiters’ draft boards.

Selwood, playing for the Bendigo Pioneers in the TAC Cup, was struck down by a knee injury after six rounds, which resulted in his fourth surgery in two years and put considerable doubt into the minds of many clubs. 

Gumbleton, on the other hand, enjoyed an injury-free season playing for Peel Thunder in the WAFL.

Essendon swooped on Gumbleton, the dynamic and imposing tall forward with pick two, while Selwood, despite being a highly rated midfielder, slipped to Geelong at pick seven, largely due to question marks over his damaged knees.

Despite having no obvious injury history, Gumbleton was stuck down by a barrage of injuries during his seven seasons at the Bombers, managing just 35 games, while Selwood went on to become one of the Cats’ all-time greats, playing 355 games and winning four flags before retiring after the 2022 season.

This comparison showcases how hard it is for clubs to balance the potential risks and rewards of drafting a player, even if they don’t have a notable injury history. 

The 2024 draft is no exception and the chatter of how underage injuries will affect a player’s draft stock.

Vic Country and Oakleigh Chargers midfielder Finn O’Sullivan was an early favourite to be the number one pick before thumb and finger injuries stopped him from consistent footy throughout the year. 

However, he is still expected to be a top five pick.

Conversely, Taj Hotton, a small midfielder/forward for Vic Metro and the Sandringham Dragons, suffered an ACL injury in the middle of the year. Hotton has slid out of top ten calculations and is now expected to be drafted later in the first round.

But how do clubs gather information about a player’s injury history, and how does what they learn factor into their decision-making process?

Assessments, questionnaires, and the medical screening day

The AFL organises an individual, independent medical assessment for all players invited to participate in the national draft combine, as well as a select group of players who attend the various state-based combines, in the lead up to the draft. This independent assessment ensures the player is medically safe to play.

A key part of the medical assessment is the cardiac screening, where players are asked a series of questions about whether they have ever experienced chest pain or had any other tests related to their heart. 

The cardiac screening also involves having an electrocardiogram (ECG) to measure the electrical activity of the heart to ensure the player does not have any risk factors for sudden cardiac arrest, which can be fatal.

“There are a number of conditions that give someone a predisposition to sudden cardiac death, and even though they’re rare, we certainly don’t want it to happen,” explains Blake, an AFL club doctor who asked to remain anonymous and who has previously been involved in the pre-draft medical assessment process.

A physiotherapist will also examine any past or current injuries a player may have, while also doing a quick check of their hips, groin, knees, and ankles.

The findings of this assessment, along with their past medical history, including injuries, illnesses, medications, surgeries, scans and more, are added to the league’s medical platform, which can be accessed by relevant staff from all 18 clubs.

In the weeks after the grand final, medical staff from each of the 18 clubs congregate and spend a day having potential draftees brought out one-by-one for the clubs to ask them questions and undertake additional medical exams or tests.

For example, if a player’s history states they had previously suffered a knee injury, one doctor or physiotherapist whose club is interested in the player will get up and test out its structural and functional stability. The staff member who examines the draftee then shares their findings with everyone else in attendance.

“The AFL talent medical team do a terrific job with the pre-draft medical process. It’s a pretty good system. It makes it fair, and it also means these kids aren’t getting hassled by too many doctors and physios,” Blake says.

The detailed information clubs receive through the independent medical assessment means it is rare for Blake to see something that catches them completely off guard and drastically changes their perspective on the risk associated with drafting a particular player.

The league-wide medical day serves as more of an opportunity to provide additional clarification on certain aspects of a player’s medical history, as the club doctors and physiotherapists are not allowed to contact the draftees directly.

“It’s a good opportunity to clarify a few of the finer details, including a player’s concussion history, that are occasionally not 100 per cent clear on their screening forms,” Blake says.

However, the medical staff can ask the league to arrange additional scans or tests for players – if there are still things they would like more information on – although this is not overly common, according to Blake.

“There have been a couple of examples this year when a player indicated they were still dealing with a lingering injury or issue, but they’d never gone and had it scanned. In those cases, we’re keen for the player to go and get a scan so we can see what is going on,” Blake says.

Blake estimates his club took a detailed look at three quarters of the players presented as part of the league-organised medical day.

Reporting back to the team

After wrapping up the assessments, the medical staff sit down and prepare a report for recruiters and other staff members that contains their recommendations and level of perceived injury risk associated with each player.

These recommendations are more subjective and based on the medical staff’s prior experience in observing and working with injured players, rather than providing an objective measure of their individual risk.

“I’d love it if the AFL could give us a crystal ball so we could know whether a player is going to be fine or not,” Blake says.

“But it’s less about ruling players out or trying to predict how many injuries they’re going to have. It’s more about giving the recruiters and performance staff as much information as possible so that if a player does get recruited, we know what the risk is and how it might need to be mitigated.”

Blake feels the recruiting staff take these recommendations seriously but acknowledges it is ultimately their call to make.

“We’re there to provide them with information, particularly about the moderate-risk ones, to make sure everyone is aware that they might be a riskier pick or that they’re going to be a bit late to start their preseason,” he says.

But wait, there’s more

The medical assessments are only one part of the pre-draft information-gathering process. Draftees participate in the combine, get asked weird questions by clubs during interviews, undergo psychological testing, and have their games watched by eagle-eyed scouts.

Interviewees can also be asked about injuries other family members may have sustained, as having a parent or sibling with an extensive injury history can influence the player’s own injury risk. Recruiters also talk to the player’s teachers and coaching or support staff from their local clubs.

“If there’s only one piece of information that paints a picture of a potential draftee’s character, then it’s easy to dismiss. Whereas if we hear it from multiple different sources, then it’s a lot harder to refute,” says Alex, who also asked to remain anonymous and who works in the recruitment and list management analytics space at a different AFL club to Blake.

“We aim to put some numerical value on the majority of work that we do so that we can compare players more easily.”

As part of their role, Alex has created various statistical models for predicting player performance at an AFL level. 

These models typically combine scouting observations with player production as these two concepts have a higher correlation with AFL performance than other factors, such as physical testing.

Alex’s models also vary slightly depending on what outcome they are trying to predict. 

For example, predicting a particular player’s chance at being an above-average player over the course of their career yields different results to predicting how well a player will perform early in their career.

There are several examples of players struggling during their first few years in the league before going on to have an above average career.

This somewhat aligns with what Paul Larkin, a research associate at Victoria University with an internationally recognised track record in exploring talent identification for team sports, has learned about how clubs approach the draft.

While all clubs value footballing ability – how well a player can kick or handball – many clubs also put significant emphasis on psychological characteristics: determination, commitment, drive, and resilience.

“Some clubs we’ve spoken to don’t care about the results [from the combine]. They want to see the effort and the mindset,” Dr Larkin says.

“These things are really big, because clubs are interested in knowing how players will manage the transition from a junior system and fitting into a highly competitive professional environment where things are ruthless.”

Dr Larkin explained that many AFL clubs feel they have some of the best sports scientists and strength and conditioning staff in the world, and back themselves to make someone who might not be the fastest or the strongest fit enough to play AFL over the course of a year or two, highlighting the importance of the athlete’s psychological character.

“You could have the best player from a technical perspective, but if they’ve got a poor character then clubs are going to overlook them because they know they’re not going to be the right fit for the club or the dressing room,” he says.

Going with your gut

Clubs receive summaries of players at the under-12 and under-15 national championships, but the real monitoring begins once players reach the under-16 level, including school football, national championships, and state-based junior leagues.

Dr Larkin agrees with focusing more seriously on potential draftees at the under-16 level, as he feels there is little value in tracking players prior to this point due to the variability in how leagues and programs are run at a more junior level.

Having more than just one year of data can be extremely helpful, particularly when assessing players who are injured in their top-age year.

“For some players, their under-17 year could be their most important year of their career, especially if they undergo a serious injury at the start of their under-18 year,” Alex says.

“Players like Taj Hotton and Noah Mraz, who feature in this year’s draft, only played a few games this year. But we have enough information from their bottom-age year for them to be considered draftable.

“The same thing happened with [current AFL players] Jake Lever and Ryan Burton, who didn’t play in their top-aged years, as well as Max King, who played just one Coates Talent League game in his draft year – and they all ended up being taken in the first round despite there being limited data from their under-18 year.”

The models Alex has developed don’t currently include any medical-related data in their predictions. But injury history and susceptibility are manually included at a later stage when it comes time to determine their final draft order.

There have been instances where players with questionable injury histories have purposefully not been suggested in a particular suggestion based on the recommendations of club doctors. However, a club’s willingness to take these sorts of risks change the longer the draft goes on.

“If there’s a first-round calibre talent available at pick 60 with an extensive and concerning injury history, the risk-reward balance shifts to [the player] being an attractive option,” Alex says.

Like Blake, Alex and their models are ultimately there to help assist the recruiting staff with their decision making.

“When pitting two players against each other, we go through every piece of information we have – who is ranked higher in the models, on production, on the physical testing, on GPS data, and so on. If there are two players who are very similar on all of the metrics but one has previously done an ACL and the other one hasn’t, it’s quite likely that we would place the one with the injury history below the one without,” Alex says.

“But the national recruiting manager will always get the final say, as they should. At the end of the day, it’s their job to make the decision.”

The 2024 AFL national draft will take place at Docklands on November 20 and 21. ABC Sport will live blog all the action at abc.net.au/sport.