Three parties are gearing up for a genuine political litmus test, with the dumping of Greens MP Sam Hibbins triggering a new year by-election in Prahran that all three are capable of winning.
The seat of Prahran is unique.
It is a genuine three-way contest with the ALP, Liberals and Greens all having held the inner-city seat in the past two decades.
In recent elections, the vote share between the three parties has fluctuated in big chunks, but each party has won at least a quarter of the primary vote.
| 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | 25.9% | 28.9% | 26.6% |
| Liberal | 44.8% | 34.5% | 31.1% |
| Greens | 24.8% (Winner) | 28.1% (Winner) | 36.4% (Winner) |
All three, on their day, are capable of winning the by-election with the shift of a couple of thousand votes.
The electorate is diverse in income and home ownership. It has high population turnover between elections and is home to popular suburbs like South Yarra and parts of St Kilda.
But it’s not a by-election everyone in the ALP is jumping out of their skins to contest.
‘We’ve got to run’: ALP insiders determined to win back Prahran
Polling shows Jacinta Allan’s government is on the nose and, federally, the Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s brand is also taking on water, so there’s some reluctance for this to be tested at the ballot box.
Others in Labor are more determined.
They believe that Prahran, last won by Labor in 2006, is the sort of well-educated inner city seat the party should be trying to win back to offset predicted losses in the outer suburbs where cost of living is biting harder.
“There’s a big progressive vote there, we’ve got to run,” one senior Labor figure said.
Candidates are being sounded out.
It’s also an opportunity some ALP insiders want to kick the Greens who’ve had a string of poor results.
Polling shows Jacinta Allan’s government is on the nose but others in Labor are more determined to contest the by-election. (AAP: Joel Carrett)
The Greens lost similar inner-city seats at the Queensland election to Labor, despite the ALP being kicked out of government.
The recent local council election in Victoria also saw the Greens suffer losses in some inner Melbourne suburbs.
Asked on Sunday if Labor would front up to the contest, the Premier was coy, saying it was up to party officials.
“We have a significant majority already,” Ms Allan said.
“It means we are getting on with the job that the Victorian community elected us for.”
Despite those public comments, the reality is the Premier and her office will have a big say.
Weighing up the risks of running
One view is that Labor doesn’t need to run because its electoral majority is secure.
Running a campaign could be a distraction for the government that wants to focus its energy on cost-of-living issues for all Victorians.
The risk is, if Labor does run and the party’s vote goes backwards, it will be a further kick in the guts to slipping morale and the premier’s popularity.
Internal agitators might find a voice.
Equally, not running would lead to calls that Labor is running scared.
A win in Prahran could improve leadership stability for John Pesutto. (ABC News)
It’s a catch-22.
The Liberals are more enthused by the by-election.
While a poor showing for Opposition Leader John Pesutto will rekindle the ever-burning questions about his leadership, a win would further strengthen his credentials.
And if the Coalition is to return to power in 2026 it needs to win seats like Prahran. Labor’s increased tax take will be a point of anger for many in the seat.
Hawksburn station has been earmarked by the Labor government as one of its new activity centres for development — this will be the first electoral test of the policy. Liberals believe locals are furious at plans to change their affluent suburb.
“We’re optimistic, we’re hopeful, but we’re realistic. It is a mountain,” one senior party figure said.
And then there’s the incumbent Greens.
If anyone told you last month that there’d be a Victorian by-election in Prahran because an MP from a party that likes to hold the moral high ground was quitting over an affair with a staff member, you’d probably laugh.
But here we are.
The Greens had a string of poor election results before exiled MP Sam Hibbins quit parliament. (Facebook: Sam Hibbins)
How much will voters punish the Greens for forcing them back to the polls again? Will the sordid circumstances of Sam Hibbins’s exit turn voters off the party?
Have the Greens delivered or are voters in Prahran keen to send a message against the government, knowing that voting Liberal will damage Labor more?
It will be a litmus test for the Greens brand as much as the party’s actual performance in state parliament.
A barometer for Victorian politics
Pollster and former Labor party assistant state secretary, Kosmos Samaras, said Prahran was winnable for all three.
“It is an electorate that is a barometer for all three parties on how they’ll fare in the months and years to come. It is a unique seat,” Mr Samaras said.
He said the seat was more immune to cost-of-living issues than outer suburban seats and, while the premier and the Labor PM were on the nose in many suburban electorates, it was not as pronounced in the inner city.
Mr Hibbins formally resigned late on Saturday. Under law, the by-election cannot be held for 30 days — the first available Saturday is December 28, you can safely bet it won’t happen then.
And with Melbourne emptying out over January, a by-election isn’t likely until February, giving everyone plenty of time to think about state politics over summer … if they want.
