Where would Chelsea 'B' finish in Premier League? More wins than Manchester United but below Fulham

Chelsea’s second string once again flexed their muscles by making it a perfect four wins out of four in the Conference League on Thursday night, with goals from Christopher Nkunku and Mykhailo Mudryk seeing off Heidenheim.

Manager Enzo Maresca has made full use of his remarkable squad depth so far this season, heavily rotating his team for midweek fixtures to leave his first XI fresh for Premier League action, with impressive results.

Indeed, no fewer than 10 first-team regulars were spared the trip to Germany ahead of Sunday’s meeting with Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge, when Maresca’s side will look to keep up their push for the top four.

But what would happen were Chelsea’s reserve side to turn out in the Premier League every week? We set out to find out…

The first part of this excursion requires a bit of creative licence in imagining injuries and fatigue are no object. The second part is deciding who actually lines up in Chelsea’s ‘B’ team. Some names are obvious: Filip Jorgensen is the second-choice goalkeeper, while Renato Veiga, Axel Disasi, Benoit Badiashile, Mykhailo Mudryk and Nkunku have all started every European and Carabao Cup game this season.

Joao Felix has done likewise since signing late in the transfer window so he goes in, too, while Tosin Adarabioyo has only sat out the midweek fare when needed to deputise for Wesley Fofana in the Premier League the previous weekend.

Veiga plays at left-back in this team since none of Reece James, Marc Cucurella and Malo Gusto really feel like second-stringers: Gusto has started every league match when available, James has not played in Europe or the Carabao Cup and Cucurella has made only one European appearance, on the back of a suspension in the league. None of that trio even travelled to Heidenheim this week, with James out injured again.

Proving his point: Christopher Nkunku is Chelsea’s top scorer this season despite a lack of Premier League starts

That leaves three places up for grabs. Despite starting – and starring – at Leicester in the Premier League last weekend, Enzo Fernandez has fallen behind the in-form pair of Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia this season and can captain this team. Cesare Casadei has featured in every European group game, plus the Carabao Cup win over Barrow, so he can be his midfield partner.

The final spot was between Jadon Sancho and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. Sancho is the more natural fit out wide, but the Heidenheim game was his first cup appearance of the season. Dewsbury-Hall, by contrast, has played in every cup game and did start off the right in the Carabao Cup loss at Newcastle.

Ben Chilwell, Marc Guiu, Carney Chukwuemeka and Marcus Bettinelli are among those not to make the cut, along with youngsters like Tyrique George and Josh Acheampong.

Chelsea ‘B’ starting XI: Jorgensen; Disasi, Tosin, Badiashile, Veiga; Casadei, Fernandez; Dewsbury-Hall, Felix, Mudryk; Nkunku

We asked CasinoHawks to use their probability model to run 1,000 simulations to predict the result of every fixture in the Premier League this season, producing a final table based on the average outcome of those games.

The model takes into account a team’s current strength, league position and form and came up with Liverpool winning the title by a whopping 12 points from Manchester City, while Ipswich, Southampton and Crystal Palace were the three relegated sides.

Most importantly to our venture, though, Chelsea’s ‘B’ side came out in 11th place, a point behind Manchester United in 10th but also below west London rivals Brentford and Fulham, who snuck into the Conference League in seventh.

The model has Chelsea returning 16 wins, nine draws and 13 defeats for a final points tally of 57 and a positive goal difference of five.

According to the simulation, the Blues’ reserves would have just a 1.9 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League.

Their Conference League chances rate at 9.3 per cent, but they would be more likely at 10.7 per cent to qualify for the Europa League because of the other avenues available via cup competitions.

Where would Chelsea ‘B’ team finish in Premier League?

Pos	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	38	30	5	3	54	95
2	Manchester City	38	24	11	4	40	83
3	Arsenal	38	24	10	4	35	82
4	Tottenham	38	21	6	11	26	69
5	Brighton	38	18	11	9	14	65
6	Newcastle	38	19	8	11	11	65
7	Fulham	38	17	12	9	12	63
8	Brentford	38	19	4	15	6	61
9	Aston Villa	38	18	6	14	5	60
10	Manchester United	38	15	13	10	8	58
11	Chelsea B Team	38	16	9	13	5	57
12	Bournemouth	38	11	13	14	-3	46
13	Nottingham Forest	38	9	9	20	-17	36
14	West Ham	38	9	9	20	-21	36
15	Wolves	38	9	8	21	-23	35
16	Everton	38	8	9	21	-24	33
17	Leicester	38	6	14	18	-20	32
18	Crystal Palace	38	6	12	20	-27	30
19	Southampton	38	5	6	27	-43	21
20	Ipswich	38	3	11	24	-38	20