WASHINGTON — Republicans are making plans to craft and pass a huge party-line bill early next year in the new Donald Trump administration, eyeing it as a vehicle for a variety of priorities from tax cuts to more funding for immigration enforcement.
The legislation would use the budget “reconciliation” process, which would allow them to pass policies involving taxes and spending without the need for any Democratic votes. GOP leaders are looking to tee up the process with a budget setting the parameters for the bill in early January, even before Trump takes office, two sources with knowledge of the push said.
Their top objective is to extend the 2017 Trump tax law and prevent $3.3 trillion in tax breaks from expiring at the end of 2025.
But the party is aiming bigger.
In interviews, senior Republicans said they also want to use the bill to give the incoming administration more resources to carry out border enforcement and Trump’s promise of “mass deportations,” repeal clean energy funding in President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and use the package to slash other federal spending.
The reconciliation process bypasses the Senate’s 60-vote threshold for most bills, requiring just a majority vote to pass a tax- and spending package once per fiscal year. Republicans will have 53 votes in the Senate, allowing them three defections. But the House will be a bigger challenge as the party is on track to have a paper-thin majority of 220-215, which will shrink even further early in the Trump era as some GOP members leave to join his administration.
“I’ve told all the freshmen and the returning members: Be ready for a very busy first 100 days,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La. “We’ve got to do a lot of things at the same time. We’re going to be walking and chewing gum.”
They’ll also have to navigate deadlines to prevent a government shutdown and avert a calamitous debt default.
“It’ll be super challenging,” said Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C. “And the reason for that is you have razors at margins, and we’re obviously not going to get any Democrat votes. The key is going to be addressing all these coalitions that are likely going to threaten an insufficient number of votes unless they get their priorities. … It’s infinitely more complex to get a reconciliation outcome in this cycle out of the House than the Senate.”
Democrats are already gearing up to blast the package as a giveaway to the wealthy, reprising their attacks on the 2017 Trump tax law by highlighting the tax breaks for the highest income earners.
“Republicans are trying to take actions that will benefit the most fortunate and grow the debt for future generations,” said Rep. Brad Schneider, D-Ill., the newly elected chair of the moderate New Democrat Coalition. “They’ve made it very clear they’re not going to look to find any compromise. They’re going to have to work within their own caucus, this very narrow majority.”
Tax breaks, wall money, spending cuts, Medicaid
Early discussions within the GOP include a hodgepodge of conservative ideas to pack into the reconciliation bill, recognizing that legislation outside the process is subject to 60 Senate votes.
Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., said the GOP is “100%” committed to extending the Trump tax cuts but with “some deviations” from existing law. He said he wants to expand child tax credits, which Jason Smith, R-Mo., chair of the House’s tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, has unsuccessfully sought to enact into law. Smith’s plan, which combined tax relief for families with children and renewing Trump-era tax breaks for businesses, passed the House early this year, but Senate Republicans, including Tuberville, rejected it.
Incoming Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., said next year’s reconciliation bill can include extending the Trump tax cuts, spending on border security and “unleashing American energy.”
Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, the chair of the Judiciary Committee, said he wants the House to pass the conservative immigration package known as HR2 “right away” in the new Congress and push through some of those provisions in reconciliation.
“Then you take what we can’t get through the Senate, and you put it in reconciliation,” Jordan said.
Scalise said Republicans want to give Trump “money for border wall construction,” as well as provide “more technology to our border patrol agents” to do their work. The goal, he said, is to give Trump “all the tools he needs to help secure our border.”
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, said he wants “a credible requirement for able-bodied adults” to work to get federal benefits. He also called for scrutinizing “mandatory” spending outside Social Security and Medicare to slash red ink.
“There’s a lot of opportunity for savings here, and I think it’s just going to take the political will to do,” he said. “We’ve got to bend the spending curve and start paying down some of the debt. And we also need to free up funds to deal with national security and the most dangerous world since World War II.”
Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said Republicans should “use reconciliation to do everything we can to get to a balanced budget.”
“On Medicaid, as you know, I’ve always believed in block grants. I believe in block grants,” he said. “We ought to give the states more opportunity, and the states will figure out how to spend the money.”
Multiple Republicans, including Tuberville, said they weren’t sure whether they’ll seek to extend expiring Obamacare subsidies in the new bill.
GOP seeks to cut Biden-era programs
An emerging consensus within the GOP is to repeal spending programs Democrats passed in the Biden era.
The Inflation Reduction Act “is certainly something we’re going to be taking a look at,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., the incoming chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee.
The Biden law includes a slew of tax credits, including consumer-facing benefits to buy electric vehicles and energy-efficient items for homes.
“Clearly, the American people, in a pretty loud voice, indicated they were not happy with the leadership of this last administration. And some of these trillion-dollar giveaways are going to be imperiled because they were not good for the American economy,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D., who is seen as a center-right pragmatist.
One big question that Republicans will face: How much would the GOP pay for, and how much would it add to the rising deficit? There are party divisions, with some seeking to offset the cost of the package, while others believe some new deficits are acceptable.
Tillis, a Finance Committee member, said that he’d allow policies he considers “pro-growth” to add to the deficit but that he wants to “pay for” any parts of the bill that don’t fit that category.
“There’s a lot of things we can claw back,” Tillis said. “The Democrats shouldn’t be surprised that the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act should be ripe for that.”
Tillis said he worries that a small group of House Republicans may torpedo the package by demanding that it not add to the deficit. Democrats have 214 votes, and they lead in the one race that remains to be called, in California’s 13th District.
“This is where President Trump is going to have to be a very, very important part of the process. I’ve heard more than three people [in the House] say that they won’t vote for a tax package that’s not fully offset. If so, we’re done,” he said. “So how do you fix that? That’s above my pay grade, and it’s out of my chamber.”
Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., proposed to pass two reconciliation bills next year, using the next fiscal year’s option — one with the tax breaks that reflect points of agreement and another later in the year.
“Let’s make sure we get the low-hanging fruit for sure, which I think has a lot to do with the tax extensions, whatever else we can do early on, but in a united fashion to get it across the finish line quickly,” he said. “And then we can sit down and work through some areas that we might find agreement on for a second reconciliation bill, as well.”
