Trump Does Not Have Mandate

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. 

Newspaper headlines have called Donald Trump’s victory “decisive,” “massive,” “resounding,” “historic,” and “sweeping.” Trump himself has described his win as a “landslide.” On election night, he claimed that “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.” 

None of those things are true. 

Moreover, recent public opinion polls reveal that Trump’s professed policy agenda is very unpopular. 

Trump’s electoral triumph, and the Republicans’ control of both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court, certainly puts them in a position to make significant changes. But in terms of the overall vote, as well as public sentiment, Trump and the GOP have no mandate. If they try to overhaul the government and the economy based on Trump’s campaign pledges, it will cause enormous hardship and suffering, and it may well lead to a major backlash in the 2026 and 2028 elections — provided, of course, that Democrats are able to highlight the ways in which Republicans are hostile to policy ideas most Americans support.

That is the paradox of the 2024 election: that Trump won despite the unpopularity of his and his allies’ agenda. It is a puzzle Democrats will need to solve. But they cannot solve it by understanding Trump’s win to be an embrace of his ideas and a resounding rejection of Democrats’. It is not. 

Americans still do not support Trump’s ideas, nor was Republicans’ victory resounding. 

Let’s start with Trump’s electoral victory. His popular vote margin was one of the tiniest in American history. He won 49.9 percent of the vote compared with Kamala Harris’ 48.3 percent. Trump’s 1.6 percent edge is the third smallest since 1900, not counting 2016, when he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by a 2.1 percent margin. 

Trump didn’t come close to a “landslide” victory. The most lopsided presidential contests have been Lyndon Johnson’s in 1964 (which he won with 61.1 percent of the vote), Franklin Roosevelt’s in 1936 (60.8 percent), Richard Nixon’s in 1972 (60.7 percent), Calvin Coolidge’s in 1920 (60.3 percent), and Ronald Reagan’s in 1984 (58.8 percent). 

Trump won the six battleground states by slim margins. He received 49.7 percent of the vote in both Wisconsin and Michigan, 50.4 percent in Pennsylvania, 50.6 percent in Nevada, 50.7 percent in Georgia, and 52.2 percent in Arizona. 

The partisan shift in Congress is also infinitesimal in historical perspective. 

The Republicans increased the number of Senate seats they hold from 50 to 53, which will give that chamber significant power to act on Trump’s agenda. But in the 33 Senate races in November, the number of Americans who voted for Democrats exceeded the number who voted for Republicans, 55.6 million to 54.2 million.

The Republicans also made no gains in the House. In the next Congress, the Republicans’ margin in the House will be 220 to 215. In other words, exactly the same as it was before the election. (This includes the two empty seats vacated by Democrats and the one empty seat vacated by a Republican that were just filled by candidates from the same party. It assumes that the three House Republicans who Trump has appointed to positions in his administration will be replaced by other Republicans). So much for Republican claims of a significant shift!

Yes, there is a lot to contemplate in the big-picture analyses about the mood of the country, the shifting media environment, some demographic groups’ drift toward Trump, and the debate over whether Harris was too left or too centrist. All that and more will figure in the various diagnoses that will happen in anticipation of the 2026 and 2028 elections. 

But one simple takeaway from these basic facts is that if the Democrats had won three more seats this year, they’d have a 218-217 majority in the House and the ability to neutralize most of Trump’s legislative initiatives. The three Democrats who lost by the narrowest margins (Christina Bohannan in Iowa, Yadira Caraveo in Colorado, and Susan Wild in Pennsylvania), lost by some 7,000 votes, combined. The other four Democrats in very close races — Janelle Stelson and Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania, Tony Vargas in Nebraska, and Mary Petola in Alaska — lost by a total of 22,180 votes. Yes, a Republican could say the same thing about the slim margins won by a few Democrats, but it was the Democrats who lost 7 of the 11 closest races. A slightly better Democratic GOTV operation in three of those districts would have given the Democrats a majority in the House. 

This is not to downplay the reality: that the Democrats’ small margins of defeat in a handful of congressional districts will have huge consequences, including a lot of suffering and hardship.

But it is to emphasize that, in partisan terms, the United States basically remains a 50-50 country in terms of the popular vote between Republican and Democratic candidates.

When it comes to key policy areas, however, America is not evenly divided. Polls show that a vast majority of Americans depart significantly from Trump’s ideas about where to take the country. Polls have for years shown — and continue to show — that voters are more likely to agree with progressive positions than conservative ones on many key issues. 

The focus by almost all Republicans on divisive social issues and bigotry can obscure views that most Americans share, especially when it comes to such matters as economic fairness, protecting the environment, health care, gun safety, abortion, and the drift toward plutocracy. The vast majority of Americans are liberal or progressive on these and other matters. Even some Trump supporters, Republicans, and people who call themselves “conservatives” have liberal or moderate views on many topics.

Americans are generally upset with widening inequality, the political influence of big business, and declining living standards. Public opinion is generally favorable toward greater government activism to address these and other problems, like climate change and health care.

Most Americans worry that government has been captured by the powerful and wealthy. They want a government that serves the common good. They also want to reform government to make it more responsive and accountable.

The overwhelming majority of Americans reject cutting Social Security and Medicare, though doing so is periodically floated by Republican members of Congress and incoming Trump administration officials, and majorities support raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans. (See the end of this article for a detailed statistical breakdown of Americans’ support for progressive policy ideas.)

All this should be good news for Democrats and liberals. They can take comfort that their ideas are more popular than Trump’s and the GOP’s. 

But public opinion on its own doesn’t translate into public policy. It has to be mobilized during legislative battles, media wars, and election campaigns. For example, even though a vast majority of Americans — and even a majority of gun owners — support background checks for gun purchasers, for decades the National Rifle Association, of which only five percent of all gun owners are members, has been better organized, more passionate and vocal, and has provided more campaign contributions to policymakers than the advocacy groups that support background checks and bans on assault rifles.

That brings us back to the confounding paradox of this election: why a significant number of Americans voted for Trump despite their disagreements with his views. Trump could not have won the election if the only people who voted for him were those who agreed with his stances on most issues. 

For example, according to CNN exit polls, 29% of voters who believe that abortion should be legal voted for Trump anyway. Twelve percent of Americans who think that Trump’s views are too extreme voted for him anyway. 

Trump got 58.5% of the vote in Missouri on the same day that 58% of voters in that state supported a ballot referendum to raise the minimum wage to $13.75 an hour and to require employers to provide paid sick leave — both policies that Trump opposes. In Alaska, where Trump won 54.5% of the vote, 58% of voters got behind a ballot measure to raise the state minimum wage from the current $11.73 an hour to $13 in 2025, $14 in 2026 and $15 in 2027, with annual inflationary adjustments in following years. It, too, will require employers to provide paid sick leave. 

In the recent election, 10 states had abortion-related measures on the ballot. Voters favored protecting abortion access in seven of them, including several states that voted for Trump. 

Missourians passed, with 51.6% of the vote, the Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative, which establishes a right to reproductive freedom in the state constitution, including the right to make without government interference decisions about abortion, contraception, miscarriage management, prenatal and postpartum care, and respectful birthing conditions. It also protects a right to assist someone exercising their reproductive freedom. The initiative was, of course, only necessary because a majority of the Supreme Court, including three justices picked by Trump, voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. (And lest any voters had the illusion Republicans truly embraced their “leave it to the states” mantra, Missouri state Republicans immediately got to work trying to impose restrictions on abortion that circumvent the newly passed amendment.)

In Nevada, a whopping 64.4% of voters supported an amendment to the state constitution to create a right to abortion until fetal viability or when needed to protect the life or health of a pregnant woman. But Trump, who proudly took credit for appointing those three Supreme Court justices who were crucial to overturning Roe, defeated Harris in Nevada by a slim majority of 50.6%. 

In Arizona, where Trump prevailed with 52.2% of the vote, 61.6% of voters supported Proposition 139, a similar measure that establishes a fundamental right to abortion and prevents the state from restricting abortion prior to viability in most instances (generally 24–26 weeks of pregnancy). It protects access to care after that point if necessary to protect the pregnant person’s life or health (physical or mental). The measure also prohibits any law penalizing a person or entity that assists someone in getting an abortion. Fifty-seven percent of voters in Montana passed the Right to Abortion Initiative that ensures a right to make and carry out pregnancy decisions, including abortion. It prevents the state from hindering the right to abortion before viability (generally 24–26 weeks of pregnancy) and when necessary after that point to protect the pregnant person’s life or physical health. It also protects patients, health care providers or anyone who assists someone in exercising their right to make decisions about their pregnancy. This happened in a state that Trump won with 58.4% of the vote. 

There is a lot here for Democrats to sift through about these apparent policy disconnects, and voters making reactionary choices that cut against their own professed policy preferences is far from a new phenomenon in democratic politics. 

What’s clear, though, is that — like the exceptional con man he is — Trump persuaded enough voters who don’t agree with him on most issues to vote for him anyway by playing to Americans’ fears and vulnerabilities. He was more effective than Harris in tapping into Americans’ angers and frustrations, while Biden, and then Harris, failed to win credit for their accomplishments on expanding health insurance coverage, creating jobs, and reversing the fiasco of Trump’s mismanagement of the COVID pandemic. Trump was adept at distorting the truth to persuade a sufficient number of voters that the U.S. had the “greatest” economy ever when he was in the White House and that Biden (and then Harris) was responsible for wrecking the economy and for the increasing price of gas, eggs, and rent. He managed to convince enough voters that illegal immigrants were “poisoning” America, stealing Americans’ jobs, and creating a crime wave. Among voters who prioritized those issues, Trump won decisively. 

These survey findings should compel Democrats running for governor and Congress in the next two years and for president in 2028, to promote a bolder progressive policy agenda. To have credibility with voters, Democratic candidates must be able to explain how these policy ideas translate into improving voters’ lives. 

Few Americans call themselves “progressive.” Few think they share similar views with citizens of social democracies like Canada, Denmark, Norway, and Germany. But on most major issues, Americans lean left. Although Trump, the corporate plutocracy, and MAGA movement may think otherwise, the United States is a more decent and democratic society than we give it credit for.

An Overview Of Americans’ Progressive Positions

The figures cited below come from surveys conducted by Gallup, Pew, and other reputable polling organizations on the key issues facing the nation. 

These are national polls on each topic from the past two years. Each poll is hyperlinked so readers can look at the original sources.

The Economy

• 74% of Americans think that corporations have too much power in society. (Pew 2024) 
• 65% think corporations make too much profit. (Pew 2024)
• 73% of Americans think our economic system “unfairly favors powerful interests.” (Pew 2024)
• 67% of Americans favor a “billionaire tax” that would increase the tax rate to 23.8% for those with a net wealth either over $1 billion or whose income exceeds $100 million for three consecutive years (about 700 of the wealthiest Americans). This proposal, when polled, garnered the support of 84% of Democrats, 63% of Independents, and 51% of Republicans.

Money in Politics

• 82% say that the influence of money in politics is a threat to our democracy. (American Promise 2024)
• 80% say the people who donate money to political campaigns have too much influence on the decisions members of Congress make. (Pew 2023)
• 73% say lobbyists and special interest groups have too much influence. Large majorities of Republicans and Democrats alike say campaign donors, lobbyists and special interest groups have too much influence. (Pew 2023)
• 72% say that there should be limits on the amount of money individuals and organizations can spend on political campaigns. (Pew 2023)

Taxes

• 61% of Americans think some corporations don’t pay their fair share of taxes. (Pew 2023)
• 60% think some wealthy people don’t pay their fair share of taxes. (Pew 2023)
• 61% support raising taxes for households with incomes over $400,000. (Pew 2023)
• 65% support raising taxes for large corporations. (Pew 2023)
• 77% of registered voters in the seven battleground states in this year’s presidential election like the idea of a billionaires tax to bolster Social Security shortfalls. More than half say they approve of trimming benefits for high-earners, and for taxing wages for Social Security beyond the first $168,600 in earnings, as is done under current policy. (Bloomberg News/Morning Consult 2024) 
• 92% of voters, including 94% of Republicans, reject cutting Social Security to reduce the national debt.
• 71% of voters want Congress to protect Social Security by increasing taxes on wealthy Americans.

Minimum Wage

• 83% of Americans — including 76% of Republicans — favor raising the federal minimum wage to $12 an hour. (Data for Progress 2024) 
• 66% support increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour, from $7.25 per hour. (YouGov 2024)
• 64% of Americans — including 45% of Republicans — favor raising the federal minimum wage to $17 an hour. (Data for Progress 2024)
• 63% of registered voters think the minimum wage should be adjusted each year by the rate of inflation, including majorities of Democrats (80%) and independents (65%), and just under half of Republicans (45%). (University of Maryland 2023) 
• The federal minimum wage was last raised in 2009 to $7.25 per hour. Since then, consumer prices have increased by 45% — including a 49% increase in medical care prices, a 51% increase in food prices, and a 67% increase in rental housing prices. Nonetheless, the federal minimum wage hasn’t budged in those 15 years.

Workers’ Rights

• 70% of Americans — including 42% of Republicans — approve of labor unions. This is just one point below the highest level recorded since 1965. (Gallup 2024)
• 61% of Americans say that unions mostly help the U.S. economy (Gallup 2023) 
• 65% of Americans support establishing a law that strengthens workers’ ability to bargain collectively. (YouGov 2024)
• 85% of voters from nine battleground states — including 76% of Republicans — say they support paid parental, family, and medical leave. 
• 79% of voters support a federal paid leave program, including 92 percent of Democrats, 74 percent of Independents, and 72 percent of Republicans. (Data for Progress 2023)

Health Care

• 83% say drug company profits are a major contributing factor to prescription drug costs. (KFF, 2023)
• 73% say there is not enough government regulation when it comes to limiting the price of prescription drugs. (KFF 2023)
• 85% support having the federal government negotiate the price of prescription medication. (KFF 2023)
• 65% of voters want to increase Medicare funding while just 2% want to cut it. (Data for Progress 2023)
• 92% of voters — including overwhelming margins of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans — support expanding Medicare to provide dental, vision, and hearing benefits. (Data for Progress 2024)
• 57% of Americans believe “it is the federal government’s responsibility to make sure all Americans have health care coverage.” (Gallup 2024) 

Climate Change and the Environment

• 80% of Americans support imposing tougher penalties on companies causing environmental damage. (YouGov 2024).
• 74% of Americans support U.S. participation in international efforts to reduce the effects of climate change (Pew 2023), while only 33% think the U.S. should withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords. (YouGov 2024)
• 67% of Americans say that large businesses and corporations are doing too little to reduce the effects of climate change. (Pew 2023)
• 67% of Americans support prioritizing the development of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, over expanding the production of oil, coal and natural gas. (Pew 2023) 
• 66% of Americans want the federal government to incentivize wind and solar energy production. Only 21% feel that way about coal mining and only 34% feel that way about gas and oil drilling. (Pew 2023)
• 63% think the government should require automobiles to meet higher energy efficiency standards. (YouGov 2024) 
• 61% of Americans think that increases in the Earth’s temperature over the last century are due more to human activities than natural changes in the environment. (Gallup 2024)
• 58% of Americans favor dramatically reducing the use of fossil fuels such as gas, oil and coal in the U.S. within the next 10 or 20 years, in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (Gallup 2023)

Gun Safety

• 72% of Americans support requiring a person to obtain a license from a local law enforcement agency before buying a gun.
• 61% of Americans say it is too easy to legally obtain a gun in this country, according to the June 2023 survey. Far fewer (9%) say it is too hard, while another 30% say it’s about right.
• 66% of Americans favor banning high-capacity ammunition magazines that hold more than 10 rounds. 
• 86% of Americans support Congress mandating background checks for all firearm sales and transfers. (McCourtney Institute for Democracy, 2023)
• 73% support Congress requiring gun owners to take a test, obtain a license and register their firearms, similar to the process of owning an automobile.
• 63% want to ban the sale and private ownership of semi-automatic firearms referred to as assault weapons.

Abortion and Women’s Health 

• 64% of Americans — including 86% of Democrats, 67% of independents, and 36% of Republicans — say abortion should be legal in most or all cases; by contrast, 35% of Americans say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases. Just 9% of Americans believe that abortion should be illegal in all cases. (PRRI 2023)
• 66% of women and 62% of men say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. (PRRI 2023)
• 62% of white Catholics, 73% of Catholics of color, and 57% of Hispanic Catholics say that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Majorities of other religious groups share that view, including 93% of Unitarian Universalists, 68% of white non-evangelical Protestants, 81% of Jews, 79% of Buddhists, 71% of Black Protestants, and 60% of Muslims. In contrast, only 27% of white evangelical Protestants, 30% of Latter-day Saints, and 25% of Jehovah’s Witnesses share that view. (PRRI 2023)
• 68% of Americans — including 79% of Democrats, 71% of independents, and 54% of Republicans — oppose laws that make it illegal to use or receive through the mail FDA-approved drugs for medical abortion, often called abortion pills. (PRRI 2023) 

Same-Sex Marriage and LGBTQ rights

• 76% of Americans support policies that protect LGBTQ Americans from discrimination in housing, employment, and public accommodation. (PRRI 2023)
• 69% of Americans support legal same-sex marriage, up from 27% in 1996, 42% in 2004, and 50% in 2011. (Gallup 2024)
• 78% of those 18-34, 69% of those 35-54, and 63% of those 55 and over support same-sex marriage. (Gallup 2024)
• 80% of Americans thought that “both Democrats and Republicans should spend less time talking about transgender issues and more time talking about voters’ priority issues like the economy and inflation.” (Data for Progress 2024)
• Only 38% of voters viewed transgender issues as “extremely” or “very” important to their presidential vote choice. It ranked last among 22 issues, such as the economy, democracy, terrorism, Supreme Court appointments, immigration, education, health care, climate change and other topics. (Gallup 2024) 
• 58% of voters want the government to be less involved in the lives of transgender people. (Data for Progress 2024)
• 52% of voters said they would vote for a candidate who supports transgender rights over one who doesn’t, while only 31% of voters would favor a candidate who opposes transgender rights. (Data for Progress 2024)

Education and Child Care

• 77% of Americans favor the federal government providing free tuition at public universities or colleges for anyone who is academically qualified. (2023)
• 78% of Americans — including 73% of Republicans and 86% of Democrats — support increasing the federal tax credit to help working parents offset the cost of child care (also known as the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit). (Public Opinion Strategies 2023)
• 74% of Americans — including 66% of Republicans and 81% of Democrats — support increasing the Child Tax Credit, a tax benefit for families with children. (Public Opinion Strategies 2023)

Other issues

• 64% oppose and only 30% support pardoning January 6th protestors. (Scripps Howard/Ipsos 2024) 
• 72% support, and only 23% oppose, permitting women to participate in military combat. (Scripps Howard/Ipsos 2024)
• 69% of Americans — including 79% of Democrats, 68% of independents, and 59% of Republicans — believe that Trump’s tariff plans will increase prices. Few Americans — including just 20% of Democrats, 27% of independents, and 51% of Republicans — think that tariffs will have a positive impact on the economy. (Harris 2024) 

Areas of Division

The two most divisive issues are crime and immigration. The majority of Americans are concerned that the police and the criminal justice system doesn’t treat all Americans equally, based on race. And while they are concerned about protecting the border from undocumented immigrants, they oppose a major deportation effort because they recognize that it would separate families and hurt the economy.

Immigration

• 88% of Americans want to improve security along the country’s borders. (Pew 2024) 
• Only 34% of Americans, but 59% of Trump supporters, think that illegal immigrants make life in the U.S. worse. (Pew 2024)
• 56% of Americans — including 88% of Trump supporters and 27% of Harris supporters — think the country should deport immigrants who are living in the U.S. illegally. (Pew 2024)

but…

• 57% oppose mass deportation of undocumented immigrants if it results in families being separated. (Scripps Howard/Ipsos)
• 52% oppose mass deportation of undocumented immigrants if it results in higher prices on goods. (Scripps Howard/Ipsos) 
• 70% support admitting immigrants who can fill labor shortages. (Pew)
• 69% support a pathway to citizenship for DREAMers — undocumented immigrants brought to the country as children. (Scripps News/Ipsos)
• 64% of Americans, but 92% of Trump supporters, think illegal immigrants make the crime problem worse. (Pew 2024)
• 56% of Americans, but 85% of Trump supporters, think illegal immigrants make the economy worse. (Pew 2024)
• Only 19% of Americans think legal immigrants worsen the economy and 24% think they make the crime problem worse. (Pew 2024)

Criminal Justice

• Just 39 percent of Americans are confident that the police in this country are adequately trained to avoid the use of excessive force. And just 41 percent are confident the police treat Black and white people equally. Forty-six percent of white people think the police are adequately trained on excessive force, compared with 34 percent of Hispanic people and only 20 percent of Black people. On equal treatment, the gap in perceptions between Black and white people is wider: While 48 percent of white people think the police treat Black and white people equally, just 12 percent of Black people say so. It’s 33 percent among Hispanic people. (Washington Post/ABC News 2023) 
• Americans are divided over whether the recent killings of Black Americans by police are isolated incidents (48%) or part of a broader pattern of how police treat Black Americans (48%). White Americans (57%) are much more likely than AAPI (48%) and Hispanic Americans (41%) to say that killings of Black Americans by police are isolated incidents rather than part of a pattern of how police treat Black Americans. Just 14% of Black Americans say that the killings are isolated incidents. (PRRI 2023)
• 69% of Americans report that they are confident in their local police, although there is a significant gap between Black Americans (56%), Hispanic Americans (64%), and white Americans (74%). (Gallup, 2023)
• At least half of adults say racism is a major problem in the criminal justice system (54%), and policing (51%). (KFF 2024)
• 67% say they trust the police all or most of the time to do what is right for their community with substantially lower shares among Blacks (45%) and Hispanics (63%) than Asians (62%) and whites (74%). (KFF 2024)