Week 15 NFL picks: | Toronto Sun

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BEST BETS

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BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-5) at NEW YORK GIANTS (2-11)

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LINE: Baltimore by 15.5

Even more ridiculous than laying so many points with a road team that has lost two of its last three and coming off a bye is backing the Giants, who won’t be able to stop Derrick Henry (especially with “Sexy Dexy” Lawrence shelved) and are 0-7 while averaging 10 points per game at home.

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TAKING: BALTIMORE -15.5

Ravens 37, Giants 13

NEW YORK JETS (3-10) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-10)

LINE: N.Y. Jets by 3.5

After old Aaron Rodgers threw for more than 300 yards for the first time in 35 starts last week, how is the 31st-ranked Jaguars pass ‘D’ going to cool him down? Yes, I know the Jaguars are 6-2-1 ATS as a ‘dog, and 2-0-1 ATS as a road ‘dog, but I don’t care. They have scored an average of 7.6 points in Mac Jones’ three starts and the Jets have scored 47 in their last two.

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TAKING: N.Y. JETS -3.5

Jets 24, Jaguars 13

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (8-5) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-8)

LINE: Washington by 7.5

The (probably) playoff-bound Commanders rediscovered their scoring touch and equalized a season-high with 42 points against the (sometimes) defensively sound Titans before last week’s bye, while the Saints’ QB will be Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler with Derek Carr injured. The only hope New Orleans has in keeping it close is if Alvin Kamara dances through Washington’s 27th-ranked run defence.

TAKING: WASHINGTON -7.5

Commanders 28, Saints 14

And the rest …

CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-8) at TENNESSEE TITANS (3-10)

LINE: Cincinnati by 5

It’s not just because Joe Burrow must be pissed that his house was busted into and ransacked while he was keeping the Bengals’ slim playoff hopes alive against the Cowboys last Sunday. And it’s not only because the Bengals are 6-1-0 ATS on the road and the Titans are 0-6-0 ATS at home. But after losing three one-score games in a row, Cincinnati should string together a few, despite its sickly defence.

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TAKING: CINCINNATI -5

Bengals 27, Titans 19

MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-7) at HOUSTON TEXANS (8-5)

LINE: Houston by 2.5

If you didn’t know, Tua Tagovailoa is on fire, averaging 338 passing yards in his last three games while throwing 11 TD passes and no interceptions in his last four. C.J.  Stroud has more picks (five) than touchdown tosses in his last four. Dolphins need this game to get to .500 and remain playoff-race relevant, while the inconsistent Texans looked to be locked in as the No. 4 seed.

TAKING: MIAMI +2.5

Dolphins 24, Texans 23

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (12-1) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-10)

LINE: Kansas City by 4

Like McDonald’s new McPops, I love the Chiefs but I’m quitting them for a while. They’re bad for my bank account. While they have won 15 straight one-score games, they haven’t covered a spread since Week 7 and are 5-8 ATS on the season. They also have left tackle problems, which means Patrick Mahomes will be under siege with Myles Garrett breathing down his back. If Jameis Winston can stop throwing interceptions for a moment, the Browns can keep this one close.

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TAKING: CLEVELAND +4

Chiefs 20, Browns 17

DALLAS COWBOYS (5-8) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-10)

LINE: Carolina by 2.5

The Panthers are favourites for the first time since 2022 after following up wins over the Saints and Giants by battling the Chiefs, Bucs and Eagles in three losses by a combined 12 points. So with Bryce Young leading the charge, they’re battling. Can the Cowboys match their fight? Micah Parsons and CeeDee Lamb looked demoralized and defeated after last week’s loss to the Bengals. Dallas needs the win to keep its playoff hopes flickering, but in what should come down to which team can exploit the other’s poor run defence better, the Cowboys lose unless some injured linemen make a quick recovery.

TAKING: CAROLINA -2.5

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Panthers 23, Cowboys 20

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-10) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (6-7)

LINE: Arizona by 6

The Cardinals have lost three straight since their bye, but they now have a soft run defence they can exploit with James Conner, while Trey McBride should also have a good day as New England has trouble covering tight ends. Drake Maye could orchestrate a back-door cover, but if ‘Zona loses this one Kyler Murray may as well go back to his video games.

TAKING: ARIZONA -6

Cardinals 28, Patriots 21

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (7-6) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (8-5)

LINE: L.A. Chargers by 3

The Bucs have won three straight against NFL weaklings, while the Chargers’ only two losses in their last seven were by one score against the Ravens and Chiefs. If Justin Herbert can play through the ankle/knee issues that had him limping in last week’s loss to the Chiefs — and he should, because he’s one tough dude — and even one of Ladd McConkey or Will Dissly can suit up, Los Angeles will rack up some air mileage against the Bucs’ 30th-ranked run ‘D’. Not to be overlooked: Since 2014, Jim Harbaugh is 11-3-1 ATS (3-0-1 with the Chargers) after a loss.

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TAKING: L.A. CHARGERS -3

Chargers 27, Bucs 20

BUFFALO BILLS (10-3) at DETROIT LIONS (12-1)

LINE: Detroit by 2.5

Super Bowl preview here. Expect the Bills to bounce back strong after their sub-par performance against the Rams and count on a big game from soon-to-be-named MVP Josh Allen, as the Lions have struggled against mobile QBs. The Lions’ hard-fought victory over the Packers last week gave Detroit its 11th straight win, the longest win streak for the franchise since 1934, but they could stumble here if D.J. Reader doesn’t play because of a shoulder injury. Either way, I see this one being decided by a point or two.

TAKING: BUFFALO +2.5

Bills 33, Lions 31

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-7) at DENVER BRONCOS (8-5)

LINE: Denver by 3.5

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The Broncos’ three-game winning streak includes double-digit victories over the Falcons, Raiders, and Browns, while the Colts have two one-point victories over the Jets and Patriots to show for their last six games. Jonathan Taylor should struggle to find space against the No. 6 ranked run defence while Bo Nix proves the No. 12 pick in the ’24 draft is considerably better than the No. 3 pick in the ’23 draft.

TAKING: DENVER -5.5

Broncos 24, Colts 17

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-3) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-2)

LINE: Philadelphia by 5.5

The old New York Yankees could win while fighting with each other, and we’ll soon find out if the Eagles can too. What we do know is Mike Tomlin has an outstanding 63-34 ATS record as an underdog and the Steelers cover spreads as well as anyone this season, with a 10-3-0 ATS mark that is tied with Denver’s for best in the league. They are also 5-2-0 ATS on the road and an unbeaten 3-0-0 as a road dog.

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TAKING: PITTSBURGH +5.5

Steelers 24, Eagles 23

GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-4) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-5)

LINE: Green Bay by 2.5

The Packers suffered a tough loss last week to Detroit and should rebound here if Josh Jacobs (seven touchdowns in the last three games) can continue to make the end zone his favourite place. Seattle might be without Kenneth Walker again, but Zach Charbonnet proved he’s capable of carrying the load with 134 yards and two rushing TDs against in against the Cardinals. Now that Jordan Love has become a better protector of the ball (no interceptions in his last three games) he should be able to out-perform Geno Smith.

TAKING: GREEN BAY -2.5

Packers 24, Seahawks 20

CHICAGO BEARS (4-9) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (11-2)

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LINE: Minnesota by 6.5

The Bears’ seventh loss in a row was the embarrassing 38-13 pounding they took from the Niners, while the Vikings were busy winning their sixth in row against a motivated Kirk Cousins. Why is this line so low? The Bears are worse than they were in losing to Minnesota 30-27 two weeks ago and they don’t have a coach (or offensive coordinator) who can fix the problems short term. Brian Flores will blitz a weakly protected Caleb Williams into the ground.

TAKING: MINNESOTA -6.5

Vikings 28, Bears 13

ATLANTA FALCONS (6-7) at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-11)

LINE: Atlanta by 4

Whether it’s the fading Cousins or first-rounder Michael Penix Jr. making his debut against the Raiders, the home team has lost nine straight and is dealing with a list of injuries — not to mention QB issues of their own. Either way, Atlanta has more overall talent and should add to the Raiders’ woes.

TAKING: ATLANTA -4.

Falcons 20, Raiders 14

Dan Bilicki

LAST WEEK: 9-4

SEASON: 107–99-2

BEST BEST LAST WEEK: 1-0

BEST BET SEASON: 7-7

Don Brennan

LAST WEEK: 4-9

SEASON: 101-105-2

BEST BETS LAST WEEK: 1-2

BEST BET SEASON: 22–19-1

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