Vladimir Putin is pushing his troops to extremes on the Ukraine frontline.
In a bid to seize as much land as possible before Donald Trump gets into the White House and pushes for a peace deal, the Kremlin is forcing Russian soldiers to move forward at the fastest speed seen in the war so far.
And he is gaining territory, as his troops now occupy a fifth of Ukraine – but at what cost?
As a western intelligence official told HuffPost UK: “What we are continuing to see is incremental gains by Russia at really very high levels of casualties.”
Russia is estimated to have suffered 700,000 losses – troops who have been wounded or killed – since Putin invaded in February 2022.
That rate is only climbing – Russia lost more than 2,000 troops on one particular day in November.
Another Western source said that the average attrition rate for Moscow’s soldiers is at around 1,500 a day at the moment – but “we may end up seeing a new monthly high”.
They added: “Certainly we would not expect at the current rate of operations to fall below 1,000 a day.”
Fearing the repercussions of another wave of mobilisation after his September 2022 efforts to call up 300,000 reservists triggered a wave of Russians to protest or flee, Putin has now turned to his North Korean allies to supplement his army.
Around 11,000 North Koreans have recently been deployed to fight on Putin’s behalf in Kursk, the Russian region which Ukraine seized in August.
However, this is not exactly a match made in heaven.
The North Koreans are struggling with the unfamiliar terrain of the region, as well as the language and Russia’s regressive strategy.
An intelligence source said: “Given Russian tactics are a World War One-type, infantry assaults with heavy artillery and drones, it is unsurprising that North Korean troops may be suffering.”
The US confirmed there were “several hundred” North casualties throughout December.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence said on Thursday: “The two forces do not share a common language and [North Korean] troops almost certainly have difficulties integrating into Russia’s command and control structure.”
Moscow has reportedly had to resort to using outdated and poorly maintained Soviet equipment, too.
But even these issues may not slow Putin’s offensives down, according to intelligence officials.
A western source told HuffPost UK, “Russians thus far have been able to broadly sustain the casualty rates by recruiting,” even though the new recruits are not well trained.
They said: “Putin has not had to resort to large-scale mobilisation.
“He’s been using largely financial measures, and so far that’s been successful.”
Alluding to possible future conscription, the official continued: “The Russian ability to keep up that replenishment is there but there might be a time when, actually, Putin might have to take further measures to maintain that.”
Of course, this high rate of attrition cost is impacting Russia economically, too.
The Russian president admitted himself on Thursday that inflation was soaring in the country as the economy is “overheating”, while the country grapples with western sanctions and the heavy cost of war.
But will that slow Putin down? Potentially not.
“He could move more and more into a war economy,” one official speculated. “It’s a sort of political judgement about whether that is something he could continue to sell – and he judges that he can.”
Putin is already planning to hike defence spending to 32.5% of Russia’s total budget, $28 billion (three trillion rubles) – the highest level since the Cold War.
And it will be difficult to balance the economy and these ongoing personnel losses in battle.
A source said: “Russians are continuing to put maximum pressure as they can on the frontline, but the ability to do so is dependent on them having the resources to do so, the personnel and materials.”
So if neither the economy nor his declining supply of soldiers is likely to stop Putin any time soon, what does that tell us about the president’s intentions in Trump’s negotiations?
Putin claims he is ready to talk to the president-elect, and happy to negotiate “without preconditions”.
But an official warned HuffPost UK: “Putin’s war aims have not changed – and if he is able to continue and achieve his aims by whatever means, he will do so.”
