Mandryk: When Trudeau goes, will Moe be all that far behind?

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While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may now be considering his own metaphoric walk in the snow, it is perhaps no small irony that Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe may follow those footprints someday.

Of course, it’s unlikely that any exit plans Moe has are so imminent.

While Trudeau is being tossed into a snowbank with little sympathy even from those in his own federal Liberal party, Moe still enjoys sizeable support — 52 per cent, if the last Angus Reid Institute polling on the premiers’ popularity is to be taken as gospel.

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In fact, Moe still has massive support among those living in rural Saskatchewan and among those on the right who share his worldview.

These constituencies have always mattered to Moe. This was especially evident in his eagerness last June to accept an award in Toronto from a right-wing business group.

One supposes he would like to leave with as much of his worldview imprinted on Saskatchewan as possible.

But politicians can only go so far before they are confronted with questions: Can he do much more to appease the rural right in an already divided province where half think he has already gone too far? Does he really want to stick around for another campaign to find out?

Or might now be the time to reflect on what the next Sask. Party campaign will look like? We know that Christmas has been a contemplative time for Moe in the past.

At Christmas three years ago, he rerouted from a more thoughtful direction that better followed the advice of the Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA) and chief medical health officer Dr. Saqib Shahab in the fight against COVID-19.

Being back in Shellbrook for the holiday with close family and friends fed up with COVID-19 restrictions led Moe to shed the views of informed science, which called for higher vaccination rates, in favour of people more inclined to swallow Internet conspiracy theories.

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This movement would morph into the anti-Trudeau Freedom Convoy that would further morph into more outlandish conspiracy theories from those resisting the changing social norms surrounding the LGBT2QS+ movement.

It peaked with the pronoun law Bill 137 and Moe’s “No. 1 priority” of policing gender in school change rooms.

Whether he was simply following political trends or pushing his own philosophical agenda, this past fall election saw the NDP double its seats, sending Moe a solid message that many think he did go too far.

And now the seven-year Saskatchewan premier faces the prospect of taking most of the heat from that swollen NDP Opposition on health, education and social issues.

There are other tell-tale markers confronting Moe.

One is family. Almost a decade and a half in politics — and almost a decade as premier — takes its toll on political families. There are rumours aplenty that those closest to him are urging Moe to start activating an exit strategy. The rumours have been further fuelled by recent changes in executive council staff.

Recent year-end comments from Moe himself about the loss of close political allies and friends like Paul Merriman, Donna Harpauer and Gene Makowsky have done little to dispel such rumours. Losing work colleagues you like makes any job less fun.

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And then there is that guy Moe has spent the last seven years tracking. After declaring “just watch me” in taking on Trudeau in 2018, Moe now faces the dilemma that there may soon be no Trudeau to take on.

There may also be no carbon tax to rant over. And there is no possibility that Moe will make Pierre Poilievre his foil.

Moe’s prospects seem to come down to this: Another four years of absorbing shots from a larger, more aggressive NDP Opposition hammering away about age-old and unresolved problems, or leave on your own terms and a recent election-win high note, giving a successor time to become established in advance of the 2028 vote.

Such considerations are perhaps worth a walk in the snow.

Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.

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