Dear readers,
It will be nearly four decades this year since the Congress lost power in Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, the maximum from any State. The Congress formed its last government in Uttar Pradesh in 1985 with Narayan Datt Tiwari as Chief Minister and hasn’t returned since.
The immediate trigger for this discussion? The Congress faces its perennial dilemma—whether to go solo or form alliances. The party has undertaken an organisational overhaul, with the first phase ending on January 12, by reorganising 75 district and 58 town units.
For me, having covered the Grand Old Party for over a decade, including in the power-packed UPA-I and UPA-II years, “UP me sangathan kamjor hai” (the organisation is weak in UP) remains an irritating cliché.
Consider this: When Rahul Gandhi’s whirlwind tours, with “dine with Dalit” programmes between 2008 and 2011, failed to impact the electorate in 2012 and the Samajwadi Party (SP) walked away with the trophy, Rahul took responsibility. He highlighted the need to strengthen the party’s weak organisational fundamentals in Uttar Pradesh. By the 2027 Assembly election, over 15 years will have passed since that announcement.
This year, the Congress moves its headquarters from 24 Akbar Road to a newly constructed office at 9A Kotla Road—15 years after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh laid its foundation stone.
Ironically, while the Congress office in New Delhi becomes more spacious, its footprint across north India continues to shrink. In Delhi itself, where Sheila Dikshit led a government for 15 years, the party struggles in a contest that largely devolves between the AAP and the BJP.
The party’s Uttar Pradesh journey has been tumultuous. After the SP thwarted the Congress in 2012, the party allied with the SP in 2017, campaigning as “UP ke do ladke” (UP’s two boys—Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi). But the alliance failed to impress voters, bringing the BJP to power then and again in 2022. While the SP rejected the Congress alliance in the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2022 Assembly elections, the Congress rejoined the SP for the 2024 election.
I recall a private interaction where a reporter questioned Rahul Gandhi about the Congress’s shifting alliances—fighting Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, then aligning with the Left against her. Similarly in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress courted the Bahujan Samaj Party in 2024 after vigorously campaigning against Mayawati in 2012. But 12 years isn’t a kalpa, or cosmic cycle, in politics.
Uttar Pradesh’s importance cannot be understated. That the Congress has to depend on regional parties does not signal strong revival prospects for the party. Many of its members advocate setting long-term goals in Uttar Pradesh and breaking away from regional parties, whose rise has coincided with the Congress’ decline.
Going by the current tensions between regional leaders and the Congress (with Sharad Pawar and Lalu Prasad backing Mamata Banerjee for the INDIA bloc leadership) and Akhilesh Yadav’s occasional barbs, the Congress might just end up facing the 2027 Assembly election alone.
But 2022’s results raise concerns about the Congress’ independent viability too. Despite Priyanka Gandhi’s “Ladki Hoon Lad Sakti Hoon” (I’m a girl, I can fight) campaign and 200+ rallies, the Congress won just two Uttar Pradesh Assembly seats, with its vote share dropping to 2.33 per cent from 6.33 per cent—even after fielding 159 women candidates.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Congress’ seats fell from two in 2014 to one, with Rahul Gandhi even losing the Amethi seat. While 2024 brought the party six seats in Uttar Pradesh—its best since 2009—the credit went to the SP. But recent months have seen a growing distance between the SP and the Congress, similar to the distance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar.
Those who advocate for the Congress to go solo point to the party’s 21 Lok Sabha seats in 2009 when contesting alone—exceeding its combined 1999 and 2004 tally of 19 seats. This success, however, came in unique circumstances. The SP had lost Muslim support following Mulayam Singh Yadav’s brief alliance with Kalyan Singh, the former BJP Chief Minister in whose tenure the Babri Masjid was demolished. Kalyan Singh was then heading the Rashtriya Kranti Party after leaving the BJP, and the alliance proved to be what Yadav later termed a “big mistake”. The Congress benefitted from Rahul Gandhi’s Dalit outreach and Manmohan Singh’s UPA-I welfare schemes, backed by the UPA’s then unblemished corruption-free record and Singh’s personal appeal.
After each defeat in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress has made superficial changes, primarily switching State chiefs, a strategy that has yielded little. Since July 2016, Uttar Pradesh has seen five Pradesh Congress Committee chiefs, with four State chiefs serving less than two years in the past 25 years. Meanwhile, more than a dozen senior leaders have defected to the BJP in recent times.
The current reorganisation drive involves former State chiefs—Salman Khurshid, Nirmal Khatri, Brijlal Khabri, and Raj Babbar—appointing new office bearers across booth, circle, city, district, and State levels.
Party workers hope to build on the 2024 momentum of six Lok Sabha seats and runner-up positions in 10 constituencies. Whether this marks a genuine revival for a party whose tallest leaders, including Prime Ministers, emerged from Uttar Pradesh remains to be seen. As the North faces winter’s chill, only time will tell if the latest move is a mere warm-up exercise or something more robust.
More on politics and power in the next newsletter. Until then,
Anand Mishra | Political Editor, Frontline
