Variety is the spice of life, and this month’s Winnipeg Jets mailbag may be our most diverse one yet.
We’ve got questions about the upcoming 4 Nations Face-off, the NHL trade deadline, Nikolaj Ehlers’ future, Logan Stanley’s usage (what else is new?!), Adam Lowry’s Selke candidacy, the league’s waiver system, slow starts and in-game adjustments, the use of sports psychologists, hip checks, the rapidly rising salary cap as well as injuries and contingency plans.
Dig in as Free Press hockey writers Ken Wiebe and Mike McIntyre provide some insight, analysis and answers.
1. In your estimation, what roster holes need to be filled from now until the trade deadline? And who might be leaving in these trades? -ED
WIEBE: It’s tough to find many holes on the roster of a team that’s been at or near the top of the Presidents’ Trophy race this season, but there are certainly several places the Jets could — and probably should — be looking to upgrade leading up to the NHL trade deadline on March 7.
This is a topic we’ll be delving into in the Free Press over the next few weeks, but it’s never too early to look into the crystal ball and try to identify what could be on Kevin Cheveldayoff’s wish list.
When the Jets have been in a similar position in previous years, they’ve made moves to improve the hockey club. So you can expect they will follow suit during the next five weeks or so. How big the swings will be and when they might occur remains to be seen.
There’s little doubt the Jets would like to make a pre-emptive strike for a second-line centre, like they did last year when Sean Monahan was the primary target. Although injuries could still impact the final number, the Jets project to have more than $11 million of cap space by March 7 — and they’ll likely use most, if not all, of it — provided they find the proper fit.
The Jets also figure to look for an upgrade on defence, likely one with some size and snarl. The search isn’t limited to the third pairing but is likely to be the primary focus. Luke Schenn is someone I’ve mentioned before. Another option could be Robert Bortuzzo of Utah HC. Both of those players play a physical brand of hockey, are strong shot-blockers, could help on the penalty kill and would bring championship pedigree.
A middle-six forward — and/or one that could supply secondary scoring and augment the penalty kill — would also be on the Cheveldayoff’s wish list.
As for who could be going the other way, picks and prospects would be at the heart of most trades. The Jets likely aren’t interested in moving many roster players. Depending on what is on the table, the only untouchables in the prospect pool are likely forward Brayden Yager and defenceman Elias Salomonsson, who has been sidelined by an upper-body injury since Dec. 6 and limited to 18 AHL games so far this season.
And for those folks curious if the Jets might follow the lead of the Colorado Avalanche and try to maximize some of the assets for some of their unrestricted free agents, that’s unlikely to be the case.
2. Is it possible the many Logan Stanley detractors are missing a few key points? The abuse seems to be endless. Maybe Kevin Cheveldayoff and Scott Arniel are not clueless when it comes to deciding what the team needs. Just wondering. -GRAHAM
MCINTYRE: You mean is it possible the GM and the coach of the No. 1 team in the Central Division and Western Conference aren’t trying to tank their chances of winning? I’m being sarcastic, of course, but it amazes me how many folks seem to feel this is the case.
Look, I’m on the record many times questioning Stanley’s usage, especially because I feel his lack of foot speed is an issue for a Jets team trying to play faster. And, yes, myself (and other media colleagues) have asked many, many related questions about the subject. (No, we do not lecture or scold the Jets’ brass, as some seemingly want us to do).
Heck, last week in Denver, myself and Murat Ates of The Athletic (the only travelling media members on the trip) sat down for a 65-minute chat with Cheveldayoff and — I’m not exaggerating — we easily spent 15 minutes on all things Stanley.
While I don’t necessarily agree with everything Cheveldayoff said, the bottom line is this is Arniel’s call to make, and the first-year Jets 2.0 coach clearly feels Stanley brings something they need to the table.
I suspect Cheveldayoff is going to address the blue-line at some point between now and the March 7 trade deadline, and I’ll repeat what I’ve said before in this and other forums —I’ll be shocked if Stanley is in the starting playoff lineup.
By the way, I placed a one-question limit on Stanley this month, so this is it!
3. What contract offer to Nikolaj Ehlers do you feel would be fair (market value) to both sides? Or has that ship sailed as Nik will sign where he will be provided a first-line role? -CRAIG
WIEBE: It’s a topical question for the pending unrestricted free agent, especially after the Danish forward chipped in three points on Friday to reach the 500-point milestone for his NHL career.
It’s hard to get a true gauge on what might transpire during the coming months, as both sides seem comfortable with riding things out and seeing where things go as they approach or reach July 1.
Ehlers figures to be looking for a raise from the $6 million AAV he’s carried during the seven-year deal he signed with the Jets in October 2017 when he was entering the final year of his entry-level contract. One would suspect Ehlers and his camp hope his next deal is north of $8 million per season, but until we know how much the cap is going up, it’s tough to accurately predict how high the offers could be for his services, or if the number might be closer to $7.5 million.
Ehlers has enjoyed his 10 seasons in Winnipeg. On Friday, he spoke about how special it was for him to hit the milestone in front of the hometown fans. Being on the top power-play unit this season has been an important development, but not having a clear path to top-line minutes with the Jets is likely to be a consideration for Ehlers as he approaches the negotiation of his next contract.
4. What contributes to the changes we see in the Jets transforming from a team that was completely dominated for a period to one that takes over a game following (the intermission) break between periods? We’ve all experienced a completely different golfer after one night or a football team turning it around completely after half-time, but those are usually related to set plays and not free-wheeling hockey.
-RODGER
MCINTYRE: It’s a great question, and one for which there is no easy answer. If there was, you can be sure every single coach (and team) would be making these types of adjustments on a nightly basis with perfect results.
One big factor nowadays is the use of video technology, and how that’s become such a major part of both pre-game but also in-game study. You’ve likely seen players looking down on their tablets right after a shift, and coaches going over certain things. That type of on-the-fly film study happens during the intermission, too, as teams try to find any little possible edge — be it a structural thing, a player or line that is cheating and can be exploited, etc.
To me, though, the biggest cause is one you can’t really measure with a spreadsheet or a camera. It’s about human emotions. A team maybe gets a big early lead and might get comfortable and sit back. On the flip side, a team in an early hole gets desperate and increases its risk profile.
Finally, don’t discount a good, old fashioned paint-peeling speech by a coach or a captain or other players to wake everyone up. That’s been proven to work at times, too. These wild swings in momentum are one of the things I love (and I suspect many others do, too) about the beautiful game of hockey.
5. Why does Adam Lowry never seem seriously (or at all) to be in the conversation for the Selke Trophy? It seems that he may very well be the premier shutdown centre in the NHL, plus he adds toughness and leadership, all the while providing at least some offensive threat. Yet, outside of Winnipeg, he seems to get little real recognition. -TODD
WIEBE: Both Mike and I are voters for this award and I can tell you both of us had Lowry second on our ballots behind winner Aleksander Barkov of the Florida Panthers. Barkov sets the standard for this award since Patrice Bergeron retired, but Lowry is forcing his way into the discussion.
Plenty of other voters from the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association took notice of Lowry’s season, as he finished seventh in overall voting — including 14 second-place votes, 19 third-place votes, 30 fourth-place votes and 15 fifth-place votes.
Prior to his recent upper-body injury, Lowry was on pace to eclipse his career high for goals (15) with 11 and points (36) with 26 through 48 games, while continuing to play a shutdown role at an elite level. The intangibles you mention also strengthen Lowry’s cause, but it’s fair to recognize that most players who finished ahead of him in the Selke race last season had a significantly higher point total.
While the award is supposed to focus on the defensive side of the puck, it’s become more of a two-way award over the years. But to your point, Lowry should be central to the conversation again this season, provided he’s not on the shelf for an extended period of time.
6. Just before Canada plays USA in the 4 Nations Face-Off, does the coach ask Josh Morrissey whether Connor Hellebuyck has any tells in net or weaknesses that they should try to exploit before going on the ice? Does Morrissey respond? -RYAN
MCINTYRE: All’s fair in love and hockey war, right?
I can’t see why Morrissey, in the example you cited, wouldn’t try to give his Canadian club any potential advantage, although are we sure Hellebuyck actually has any weaknesses to exploit?
One of the things I’m most fascinated about is the energy and intensity there will be in these games. The players are all talking the talk, saying they will be laying it all on the line for their respective countries! This is the first best-on-best event for a whole generation of players (no, the All-Star games don’t count!) so let’s see how quickly things get ramped up.
I know there are some who believe this is still a glorified exhibition of sorts, with needless injury risk, but I don’t get the sense the majority of players feel that way. No, it’s not the Winter Olympics, but with a return to that forum coming next winter, I suspect many of these skaters will want to make a lasting impression.
7. If Josh Morrissey was injured, what D-man would step onto PP1? -CRAIG
WIEBE: This is one hypothetical the Jets coaching staff would prefer to avoid.
In addition to the incredibly high level of play Morrissey is delivering this season, the Jets No.1 D-man has been very, very durable during the past six years. If Morrissey misses any time, Neal Pionk would be first up for the promotion, not just because he is the quarterback of the second unit, but because he did the job previously, upon his arrival in the trade with the New York Rangers.
Ville Heinola is someone that has run the top unit with the Manitoba Moose in the American Hockey League, so he’s someone that could be on standby down the road.
Morrissey is doing a fantastic job on the unit that ranks first in the NHL. After collecting 19 of his 69 points with the man-advantage last season, Morrissey already has 17 points on the power play this season among his 42 in 50 games.
8. Who can and can’t be sent down to the minors? Can a player be sent up and down a number of times and if so, do they have to clear waivers each time? Who qualifies for conditioning without having to be waived? When you lose a player on waivers and the team you lost the player to places the player back on waivers can you reclaim him? The big question I have is which team gets to claim a player? Is it first-come, first-serve or is there an order like the draft where lower-ranked teams get first opportunity at waived players?
-LORNE
MCINTYRE: It’s a bit of a complicated issue, but I’ll try to explain in the simplest way possible. Essentially, new players are exempt from needing waivers until they hit a target that is based on a combination of their age when they signed their first contract, how many games they’ve played, and how many years they’ve been in the league.
Jets defenceman Ville Heinola, for example, was exempt last year, but no longer is this year (which is why Winnipeg won’t risk trying to send him down. He’d almost certainly be claimed).
The claiming order is based on current NHL standings. Which means the Jets, right now, would have the second-last crack at a player (only Washington has more points).
One a player has cleared waivers — defenceman Dylan Coghlan would be a recent example — they can recalled and don’t need to go back through waivers for a second time, as long as they are sent back to the AHL within 30 days and haven’t played more than 10 games. (Coghlan checked off both boxes, hence his smooth return to the Moose).
To your other related questions, yes, a team that loses a player on waivers can re-claim that player should they hit the waiver wire at some point in that season. And, as long as they are the only team putting in a claim, that allows them to send that player right down to the AHL, as they originally intended. If there are other claims, they must keep them on the NHL roster or have the waiver process repeat itself.
Finally, the conditioning assignment you mention is slightly different. A player who requires waivers can bypass them for a brief period as long as few conditions are met. They typically are coming off an injury or lengthy stint a a healthy scratch, and the player must agree to be sent to the AHL for what can be no more than two weeks. They also continue to receive their NHL pay and count against the team’s salary-cap and 23-man roster limit.
9. Concerning Jets injuries and when they occur, what period has the most and is there a correlation of why it is so? My blind guess is the first period. -KETCHESON
WIEBE: This is an interesting question and it got me thinking, but I’m not sure there is a hard and fast answer, especially considering there are times when a player suffers the initially injury and plays through it, either within the game itself and leaves later (like Morrissey did in the second period on Jan. 7 against the Nashville Predators) or finishes the game or several and eventually is forced to take a seat.
Mason Appleton falls into this category and has recently returned to action. Things are further complicated this season by the Jets losing Ville Heinola on the first day of training camp from complications related to the ankle injury he originally sustained nearly one year earlier.
For the sake of trying to get a rough idea from recent injuries, Jets captain Adam Lowry was injured in the first period of the game against Utah HC last Monday, defenceman Colin Miller took a deflected puck in the throat in the first period of a game against the Detroit Red Wings on Jan. 4, blue-liner Haydn Fleury suffered a lower-body injury late in the second period against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Dec. 23 and D-man Dylan Samberg suffered a broken foot while blocking a slapshot from Steven Stamkos in the first period of a game against the Predators on Nov. 23.
For additional context, Vladislav Namestnikov blocked a shot in the third period against the Los Angeles Kings on Jan. 10 and missed four games and Ehlers sustained his lower-body injury in the second period against the Vegas Golden Knights on Nov. 29.
This is an incomplete list, but it supports my theory injuries are mostly random and occur at various points in games. Not sure there is any correlation between time of game or even at what point they might occur during a shift.
10. I would like to know if the Jets use a sports psychologist? If Vancouver is suffering from dissension among players and if Columbus players are motivated by the tragedy the family of Johnny Gaudreau suffered, are sport psychologists consulted in such cases? Do the Jets use them? If so, how? Do they usually speak to individual players or the team as a whole? -RAYMOND
MCINTYRE: Absolutely, they do. At last check, there were two in the fold (working with both members of the Jets and the Moose), and players are well aware of their services. I know for a fact they’ve been utilized.
I remember several years ago, a young player was reeling at the sudden loss of his father, and this service became extremely valuable.
Same with last year, when Adam Johnson died tragically in an on-ice accident in England, which really hit home for several Jets players who were friends with him.
Winnipeg also has a team chaplain, Lorne Korol, who is an outstanding human being and terrific support for players and staff.
There will also be players who have their own personal resources.
In this day and age, with more focus than ever on mental health — and that’s a very good thing — I can’t imagine running a sports team without this type of assistance at the ready.
11. In the past few weeks I’ve heard a couple of Sportsnet commentators suggest that not all teams are happy with the cap rising so fast and one of those teams is the Winnipeg Jets. The premise appears to be that they won’t be comfortable spending to the cap because the building is not sold out every night. Do you think that’s true? Do you think the Jets are going to stop spending to the cap as it rises up to and above $100M? -@AavcoCup
WIEBE: It’s natural that not all teams are thrilled about the prospects of a salary cap that reaches and eventually exceeds $100 million. League revenues are obviously on the rise, but so are salaries. To add context to the discussion, when the Atlanta Thrashers relocated to Winnipeg for the 2011-12 season, the salary cap ceiling was $64.3 million and the floor was $48.3 million. It won’t be long until we’re seeing an increase of roughly $40 million USD. That’s a substantial rise, especially when you consider teams are not far removed from dealing with the long-lasting impact of the pandemic.
In terms of the Jets not being able or willing to spend to the cap as it continues to rise, that remains to be seen. They’ve firmly established themselves as a team that has been a cap ceiling team for an extended period of time. Obviously, it will be easier for them to be able to continue to do that if attendance is on the rise.
Attendance is up this season at Canada Life Centre and so are the number of sellouts, though further gains will likely be required. It seems pretty obvious Jets ownership is committed to putting a winning product on the ice.
12. Wondering what your thoughts are on the Nikolaj Ehlers’ tripping penalty in the third period of the Colorado game? To me, it looked like what Josh Morrissey attempts and sometimes gets away with and sometimes he doesn’t. I’m wondering why there is no consistency on this call (as well as others). I get reffing is a hard job. The game is so fast. -GLORIA
MCINTYRE: I was in Denver at that game last week and, in real-time, I admittedly thought Ehlers very much tripped Nathan MacKinnon. But upon seeing the slow-motion replay, I changed my mind. It looked like a pretty textbook hip check, the kind you used to see all the time in the NHL.
Not so much anymore, and as you point out, the game is so fast, which is why I suspect the officials quickly had their hands up. It could have been a costly judgment call against the Jets, but they ultimately killed the minor, got it to overtime and then won it in dramatic fashion. No harm, no foul.
Put me in the camp of people who don’t mind hip checks coming out of the game. Because it is faster than ever, I just feel there’s far too much injury risk (for both the person on the receiving end of the check, but also throwing it), so I don’t mind them going the way of the Dodo bird. (As you point out, Morrissey used to throw them early in his career. Not really anymore, and that’s probably a good thing).
mike.mcintyre@freepress.mb.ca
X and Bluesky: @mikemcintyrewpg
ken.wiebe@freepress.mb.ca
X and Bluesky: @WiebesWorld
Mike McIntyre
Reporter
Mike McIntyre grew up wanting to be a professional wrestler. But when that dream fizzled, he put all his brawn into becoming a professional writer.
Ken Wiebe
Reporter
Raised in the booming metropolis of Altona, Man., Ken Wiebe grew up wanting to play in the NHL, but after realizing his hands were more adept at typing than scoring, he shifted his attention to cover his favourite sport as a writer.
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