How Long Can Starmer Sit Between The US And The EU?

Let’s face it: Keir Starmer is no stranger to sitting on the fence.

Between accusations of “dither and delay” and the nickname “Captain Hindsight,” his critics have often attacked the PM for not acting on an issue until it’s too late.

But now there’s a chance for the prime minister to put that famous hesitancy to good use, as he treads the same precarious line many other British leaders have, between the US and the EU.

But, unluckily for Starmer, there’s seems to be far more obstacles facing him than many of his predecessors.

On one side of the Atlantic, Starmer faces a flurry of unpredictable activity from a figure who is not exactly his natural political bedfellow.

Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, he has already withdrawn from international agreements and provoked trade wars by threatening to impose major tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.

On the UK’s other side sits the EU, with whom Starmer is desperate to improve trade links as part of the government’s mission to boost economic growth.

So Starmer is being torn in two directions between the intimidating Republican strongman on the other side of the Atlantic and his instinctive allies across the Channel.

Can he continue to placate both – or will he have to choose one?

Voters seem pretty keen to get closer to the trade bloc again. A recent poll of 15,000 Brits found the majority of the UK wants to prioritise trade with the EU over the US.

Starmer needs to win back many of the voters he’s lost since getting into office, especially as pollsters Ipsos found 61% of Brits are dissatisfied with his performance so far.

The Green Party’s co-leader, Carla Denyer, told HuffPost UK that voters “will be watching aghast” as Starmer “tries to cosy up” to Trump.

“It’s quite clear that Trump is set to take America down a dark path, and no responsible politician should be seeking to follow him – much less miss out on the chance of a productive relationship with our closest neighbours in order to do so,” she said.

Denyer said “common sense” suggests the priority should be the EU, as its member states “share our interests and our values”.

Similarly, the Liberal Democrats – who has the “longer term objective” to re-join the EU – believe the priority should be with joining the bloc.

The party’s foreign affairs spokesperson, Calum Miller, told HuffPost UK: “Labour has inexplicably chosen the worst of all worlds, leaving our economy caught between a rock and a hard place due to their refusal to engage properly with our European allies.”

“The only way to deal with Trump is from a position of strength,” he added. “That is why the prime minister needs to adapt to events, act in the national interest and immediately open negotiations to secure a new UK-EU customs union.”

For now Starmer has ruled out any return to the single market, customs union, freedom of movement or the youth mobility deal.

And increasing trade with the EU could be risky, considering Trump has announced he wants to impose trade tariffs on the bloc “pretty soon”.

Still, that means getting closer to Brussels is far more complicated than it was three months ago, when Joe Biden was still in charge. There is always a risk Trump, known for his volatility, could hit out if he feels he is not being prioritised.

Former Armed Forces minister and CEO of the pro-EU European Movement, Sir Nick Harvey, also pointed to the issue of defence.

He said the UK has a “deep” military relationship with the US, and Nato is the “bedrock” of our defence – but the US has “pivoted away from the Atlantic to the Pacific over the last decade”.

He said: “With Trump ambivalent at best about Ukraine, we would be reckless not to join whole-heartedly in moves to build a strong European defence union, albeit as a vital pillar within Nato.”

The US president is keen to end the war in Ukraine, but seems to be more sympathetic towards Russia when it comes to negotiating a peace deal.

Harvey also pointed to Trump’s scepticism over climate change after he pulled the US out of the Paris Accord, saying that is another “issue where we must remain shoulder to shoulder with Europe – there is no halfway house on that”.

While one Labour MP told HuffPost UK they were “sticking my head in the sand” when it comes to Trump, plenty of others are championing his cause, particularly Reform UK.

The party’s leader Nigel Farage is a close ally and friend of the president, so it’s no surprise his deputy, Richard Tice, told HuffPost UK it was time for the UK to move closer to the US.

He said: “We now have the most pro-British president for a long time and someone who is prepared to make a deal with the UK.

“Labour should cut their pro-EU fantasies and do what’s best for the British people, that’s ensuring a close relationship with the US.”

However, Tice said “it’s obvious that Labour would rather cling to their Europhile tendencies over prioritising our closest allies.”

But it’s not just Eurosceptics who want to push closer to the Republican in the Oval Office.

The new UK ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, who campaigned against Brexit, told the Financial Times he was “very worried about Europe” at the moment.

He said “we either sink or swim with Brexit”, and right now, Britain has the chance to move away from the regulations imposed by the EU.

“It means in some respects eking out a living in the rest of the world by being not Europe,” he said, and in the process, swapping “weight for nimbleness”.

But there’s a long list of issues which are expected to test Trump’s fondness for Brits and the “special relationship” in the coming months.

Labour’s bid to hand over its British overseas territory of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius is causing consternation in Washington because it’s home to a UK-US naval base.

While the Biden administration backed the move, senior figures in the new US government are resolutely opposed to it.

Starmer did try to get the deal over the line before Trump came to office last month, but failed, meaning the president will get to look at the final agreement – which he could simply throw in the bin.

Trump has also threatened to pull out of Nato unless all member states increase their defence spending to 5% – which is double the UK’s target and far more than the government can afford without blowing Rachel Reeves’ spending plans.

The president’s new right-hand man, Elon Musk, has also got into a war of words with Starmer in recent months – even calling the UK PM “evil” – which could spell further trouble down the line for the two governments.

But some insist that Starmer is not stuck in the middle atop a ticking timebomb, but just doing what British leaders have been doing for decades.

Labour grandee and foreign affairs committee chair, Emily Thornberry, described this situation as a “journalist’s dilemma, not a real one”.

She told HuffPost UK: “In reality, we’ve always straddled the two.”

The UK only dealt with Trump from outside the EU during the last year of his final term, most of which was preoccupied by the Covid pandemic – and when Boris Johnson – or “Britain Trump” as the US president called him – was at the helm.

Thornberry also said the key was in standing our ground with Trump, adding: “We have to be clear what the bottom line is and what we won’t compromise on.”

She praised the way ministers have point-blank refused to endorse Trump’s controversial plan to “clean out” Gaza and turn the Palestinian territory into the “Riviera of the Middle East”.

The Labour MP also said that neighbouring nations to the US, Canada and Mexico, are facing increased tariffs because they share a border with the States – meaning they could present a migrant threat.

She pointed out 20 out of the 27 states in the EU were in a trading deficit too, meaning they import more than export with the US.

And senior cabinet minister Pat McFadden previously told HuffPost UK the country’s place on the world stage should only be seen in the context of China, the EU and the US.

He said while the relationship with the White House “is going to be absolutely critical” on some issues like security, while Beijing and Brussels are needed for an “open trading economy”.

“Britain has succeeded in the past precisely by not choosing, by making sure it’s got a good relationship with the US and a good relationship with Europe,” he said, adding: “To try and shut that down before we begin and say ‘you’ve got the close the door to Europe and only think about America’ is to limit Britain’s options in a way that isn’t in our national interest.”

Even the director of operations at pro-Europe group Best for Britain, Cary Mitchell, said, it’s right “to say that trade is not about choosing one or the other”.

The European Movement’s Harvey said that Starmer just has “no choice but to walk the traditional British tightrope” – albeit with the added pressure of Trump.

But Thornberry noted there could be some great advantages to having the president on side, noting that “if he was in line with us, that could be really fierce, strong and uncompromising way”.

“We just have to be clear about what we want,” she said.

However, just as Thornberry said the UK should be careful and approach the White House with intention, she also wryly pointed to a quote from boxer Mike Tyson: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”